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Moody's: Spain SME ABS performance remained stable In December 2010

Global Credit Research - 15 Feb 2011

Spain SME ABS Indices -- December 2010

Frankfurt am Main, February 15, 2011 -- According to the latest Indices published by Moody's Investors Service, the performance of Spanish securitisation transactions backed by loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME ABS) remained stable in December 2010. The new index includes an appendix with a list of links to relevant research, such as Special Reports, Credit Insight articles and Methodology reports.

The weighted-average 90+ to 360+ day delinquency trend dropped to 1.72% in December 2010 from 2.29% in December 2009. Cumulative defaults rose by five basis points compared with November 2010 at 1.65%. Outstanding defaults remain stable in the last quarter, around 1.20%. The annualised CPR rose to 7.12% in December 2010, which was higher than the previous month (6.14%) but lower than a year ago (11.74%).

In December 2010, 60 transactions had reserve funds that were below target levels. Of these, seven transactions have fully drawn their reserve fund and recorded principal deficiencies.

Since the Q2 2009 peak in delinquencies, surging default levels have led to reserve fund draws and amortisation deficits. Now, however, Moody's sees the amount of recoveries increasing while the balance of new defaults continues to drop off. Although credit positive, rising flows of recoveries have no rating implications because they have already been incorporated into our rating assumptions.

Assuming GDP growth of 0.6% in 2011 and 1.1% in 2012, Moody's believes that: (i) default rates in the Spanish ABS SME sector have peaked; (ii) the amount of recoveries on defaulted loans will catch up with the balance of new defaults; and (iii) reserve fund levels, which will continue to decline in the short term, will eventually climb back towards their targets as recoveries match or surpass new defaults.

On the 27 January, Moody's downgraded the senior notes in GAT FTGENCAT 2007 and 2008 reflecting the worse-than-expected performance of the collateral underlying the transaction. On 9 February, the rating agency confirmed the Aaa (sf) rating of the BCA notes and upgraded to Aaa (sf) the rating on the BSA notes in CIBELES III FTPYME taking into consideration the better-than-expected performance of the collateral and the significant increase in credit enhancement under the senior notes.

The rating agency's outlook for Spanish SME remains negative (see the report "EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2011 Outlook & 2010 Review", published on 20 December 2010).

As of January 2011, a total of 89 rated Spanish SME ABS transactions were outstanding, with an outstanding portfolio balance of EUR49.3 billion, compared with EUR46.0 billion as of January 2010. A new transaction, FTA Santander Empresas 8 granted by Banco Santander , was issued in January.

Moody's indices are published mid-month and can be found on www.moodys.com in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of Industry/Sector Research.

http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF237076

In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of its website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

************************************************************************

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Moody's: Spain SME ABS performance remained stable In December 2010
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