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Announcement:

Moody's -- Stable outlook for APAC power sector on stabilizing cash flows; but there is variation among countries

 The document has been translated in other languages

09 Dec 2020

Note: On December 10, 2020, the press release was corrected as follows: the paragraph including the report link for subscribers was added at the end of the press release. Revised release follows.

Hong Kong, December 09, 2020 --

• Most rated issuers' cash flows will improve or stabilize supported by power demand recovery or manageable cost passthrough mechanisms

• Carbon transition risk is manageable in the near term; while India will face difficulties on several fronts

Stabilizing or improving cash flows amid power demand recovery, the gradual pace of regulatory change and a manageable transition to a low carbon economy underpin Moody's Investors Service's stable outlook for the APAC power sector in 2021.

"Our outlook for the APAC power sector is stable for 2021, as it has been since 2009. While the sector faced challenges this year as a result of the pandemic, they have been manageable overall and we expect broadly supportive business conditions across the region as economies recover," says Boris Kan, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"That said, we do see some challenges in India's power sector and, to a lesser extent, unregulated utilities in Australia, China and Japan, driven by evolving operating conditions," adds Kan.

In China, power demand recovery and falling interest rates will offset likely tariff declines as a result of increased market liberalization, but there will be delays in subsidy payments for renewable energy operators. Meanwhile, Australia's regulated utilities remain transparent and predictable but unregulated utilities will face ongoing challenges from policy uncertainty and price volatility.

In Japan, further decline in the utilities' market share from retail competition will be limited and they will maintain leading positions in their home markets. But growing overseas investments will increase their business risk and capital spending in the long term. Meanwhile in Korea, newly commissioned power plants, low fuel costs and improving nuclear power utilization will offset delays in the pass-through of fuel and environmental compliance costs.

India is the only market with a negative power sector outlook, because of weak power demand, additional payment delays by state-owned distribution companies and policy actions aimed at reducing stress for end-users.

At a macro level, most countries that have announced sector reforms will change their regulations gradually, which will support cash flow stability. Supportive government policies and increased cost competitiveness will continue to support the region's renewable energy growth in the long term, but delays in the collection of subsidies or tariffs still pose challenges.

Although coal-driven power generators' cash flows will weaken and capital spending on renewables will grow given the move to a low carbon economy, these risks are manageable in the near team as coal power will remain important for the region. The sustained low interest rate environment will also be positive for power utilities by lowering their cost of funding.

Moody's outlook for the APAC power sector reflects its expectations for fundamental business conditions for this sector over the next 12-18 months, and does not reflect its outlook for individual issuers. The report is part of Moody's 2021 Outlooks, which can be accessed on Moody's dedicated outlooks page: https://www.moodys.com/newsandevents/topics/2021-Outlooks-007058

Subscribers can access the report at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1247121

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Boris Kan
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Terry Fanous
MD-Public Proj & Infstr Fin
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 61 2 9270 8141
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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