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Announcement:

Moody's: Strong sales growth will keep global construction sector's outlook stable into 2018

26 Sep 2017

Frankfurt am Main, September 26, 2017 -- Robust revenue growth, particularly in Asia Pacific and North America, on the back of continued low interest rates and stabilizing commodity prices will underpin the stable outlook for the global construction sector into 2018, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today.

"Many developed economies are increasing their infrastructure spending as a result of stable commodity prices and ongoing low interest rates. This jump in spending will push revenues up by as much as 8% in some regions and support our stable outlook on the global construction sector over the next 12 to 18 months," says Matthias Heck, Vice President -- Senior Analyst at Moody's.

North America and Asia Pacific will post the most robust revenue growth of around 5% and more. In APAC, Moody's expects growth of around 5%-7%, driven by ongoing good growth in China and strong government road and rail infrastructure spending in Australia.

Moody's expects revenue growth rates of 4%-6% in the US and Canada, driven by large infrastructure plans and residential construction. In Canada, growth will be supported by more stable commodity prices.

Conversely, European construction revenue will likely stagnate over the next 12-18 months with modest recession in some countries (including Italy) and up to 4% growth in other countries (including Germany). A post-election increase in new infrastructure projects will grow German construction volumes, while Brexit uncertainty will weaken UK volumes.

In Latin America, the engineering and construction sector will remain stalled in 2017-18 on the back of recession, government budget cuts, weak order intake and project cancelations linked to corruption scandals. Moody's expectation ranges from flat revenues down to a 5% recession over the next 12-18 months.

Ongoing difficult macroeconomic and geopolitical environments in many emerging markets, in Latin America and in Turkey and Russia, for example, will reduce investor appetite for concession assets, such as toll roads. This could weigh on construction activity in this segment as companies could find it harder sell existing assets and finance new projects.

In 2017-18, the gap in credit quality between high and low-rated companies will grow even more pronounced, as tight competition and slim margins push funding costs higher for operators with lower credit quality and force weaker companies into less profitable or more risky projects.

Weak liquidity remains a key constraint for some companies and could put additional pressure on ratings.

Moody's report, "Construction -- Global: Low interest rates, steady commodity prices support stable outlook", is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.

Subscribers can access the report at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1077119

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Matthias Heck
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Anke Rindermann
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

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