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Announcement:

Moody's: Sustained oversupply keeps outlook for global shipping industry negative

13 Jun 2013

Milan, June 13, 2013 -- The outlook for the global shipping industry will remain negative over the next 12-18 months, as the supply of vessels will likely continue to outstrip demand in most shipping services, says Moody's Investors Service in its latest Industry Outlook on the sector published today. The global shipping industry's outlook has been negative since July 2011.

The new report, entitled "Global Shipping Industry: Sustained Oversupply Keeps Outlook Negative", is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

"Substantial oversupply will constrain freight rates for at least the next 18 months, particularly weighing on earnings in the dry-bulk and crude oil tanker segments, while falling US crude oil imports and declining European demand are likely to depress seaborne deliveries," says Marco Vetulli, a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer in Moody's Corporate Finance Group and author of the report. "We expect aggregate EBITDA in the global shipping industry to decline by around 5%-10% in 2013."

Shipping companies concentrated on the crude oil tanker segment or focused on the dry-bulk sector, such as Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc. (B2 negative), are more likely to be adversely affected by these trends.

Moody's outlook for the product tanker segment is more favourable. Companies, such as Sovcomflot JSC (Ba2 stable) and Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. (B3 stable), could continue to benefit from demand growth linked to the shift in refining capacity to Asia and the Middle East, leading to a slight improvement in freight rates.

Moody's does not expect to see a major improvement in the container segment's financial performance in 2013 as it is the most sensitive to bunker fuel costs, which are likely to remain high. However, the container segment has the potential to outperform other shipping sectors this year if players maintain market discipline through proactive fleet management, such as laying up ships to reduce supply, and control costs.

Rated Japanese conglomerates -- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYKK, Baa2 negative) and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (MOL, Baa3 negative) -- are better positioned to ride out choppy conditions because they have healthy liquidity, benefit from solid relationships with banks and are part of large groups.

Shipping finance will remain tight with selective bank lending continuing. In general, rated shipping companies have stronger liquidity than the industry average, which should enhance their ability to weather challenges posed by the weak operating environment. The strongest operators may also have access to bond financing.

Moody's could change its outlook to stable if it believes that the supply-demand gap is likely to narrow over the coming 12-18 months, such that supply exceeds demand by no more than 2% or demand exceeds supply by up to 2%. For the outlook to stabilise, the industry's aggregate EBITDA growth would also need to be within a range of -5 to +10%. Market prospects should improve in 2014 as the amount of oversupply declines. However, downside risks remain high as the global economic recovery appears to have lost momentum in recent months.

Subscribers can access this report via this link: http://www.moodys.com/research/Global-Shipping-Industry-Sustained-Oversupply-Keeps-Outlook-Negative--PBC_154515

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com

Marco Vetulli
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Eric de Bodard
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Moody's: Sustained oversupply keeps outlook for global shipping industry negative
No Related Data.
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