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Research Announcement:

Moody's - Sweden's credit profile supported by high wealth levels, strong growth potential and fiscal discipline

10 April 2019


Frankfurt am Main, April 10, 2019 --

- Credit strengths include high wealth levels, resilient economy and strong institutions

- Debt-to-GDP ratio expected to fall below 35%, the new public debt anchor, by 2020

The credit profile of Sweden (Aaa stable) reflects the country's high wealth levels, resilient and diversified economy and relatively strong growth potential, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today.

Domestic demand, particularly high investment levels, strong household consumption and high exports, has supported GDP growth, while lower refugee arrivals in 2016 and 2017 have resulted in lower public consumption.

"Sweden's credit strengths include its strong growth potential, competitiveness and innovation," said Olivier Chemla, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Analyst and the report's co-author. "The country also has a highly skilled labour force and highly effective institutions, as well as a stable political environment."

Moody's expects real GDP growth to average around 2.1% between 2019 and 2022, in line with potential. In a more uncertain environment, the normalization of monetary policy that began in late 2018 will seek to find the adequate balance between domestic and external factors.

Sweden has had a long-standing consensus on fiscal discipline and a surplus target for general government finances. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to fall slightly below 35% - the new public debt anchor - by 2020.

The main risks to Sweden's economic outlook stem from elevated household indebtedness and the potential adverse effect of a steep decline in real estate prices. However, as indicated by the stable outlook, Moody's does not anticipate downward pressure on the rating.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Olivier Chemla
VP-Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
JOURNALISTS : 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service : 44 20 7772 5454

Dietmar Hornung
Associate Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
JOURNALISTS : 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service : 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office :
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main, 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS : 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service : 44 20 7772 5454

© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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