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Announcement:

Moody's Takes Action on 2005-08 US Prime Jumbo RMBS: $2.2B on Review for Upgrade and $5.8B on Review for Downgrade

30 May 2012

$8.0 billion of securities affected

New York, May 30, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has placed ratings on 216 tranches on review for upgrade and ratings on 176 tranches on review for downgrade from 134 residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions backed by prime jumbo loans securitized between 2005 and 2008. Moody's rates a total of 4716 tranches from 349 prime jumbo RMBS transactions issued from 2005-08.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The actions reflect the recent performance of individual prime jumbo transactions and Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools. Today's rating actions include placing on review ratings on 216 bonds for upgrade and 176 bonds for downgrade. The upgrade reviews are due to faster-than-expected pay-down on certain bonds owing to prepayments and/or improvement in collateral performance. The downgrade reviews are primarily due to deteriorating collateral performance.

Although individual transaction performance varies, the overall performance of prime jumbo RMBS remains weak. Average 60-plus delinquencies of prime jumbo loans have increased to 14% of outstanding balance currently from 12% a year earlier. The annual rate of new delinquencies among always-current loans at 5% currently, is down from its peak level of 9% in 2009, but has seen little improvement over the past year. However, due to low mortgage interest rates, voluntary prepayment rates on prime jumbo loans continue to be high, averaging 15% over the past year. As a result, in some transactions, certain bonds with payment priority have paid down faster than Moody's had previously projected, resulting in the upgrade reviews.

Moody's is placing on review for downgrade ratings of prime jumbo RMBS with underlying pool performance weaker than previous expectations or with credit enhancement lower than prior projections.

The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "2005 -- 2008 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published in July 2011. The methodology used in rating interest-only securities was "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for 1) Moody's current view on loan modifications 2) small pool volatility and 3) bonds that financial guarantors insure.

Loan Modifications

As a result of an extension of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 2013 and an increased use of private modifications, Moody's is extending its previous view that loan modifications will only occur through the end of 2012. It is now assuming that the loan modifications will continue at current levels until the end of 2013.

Small Pool Volatility

The above RMBS approach only applies to structures with at least 40 loans and pool factor of greater than 5%. Moody's can withdraw its rating when the pool factor drops below 5% and the number of loans in the deal declines to 40 loans or lower. If, however, a transaction has a specific structural feature, such as a credit enhancement floor, that mitigates the risks of small pool size, Moody's can choose to continue to rate the transaction. Please refer further to Moody's Investors Service's Withdrawal Policy, which can be found on our website, www.moodys.com.

For pools with loans less than 100, Moody's adjusts its projections of loss to account for the higher loss volatility of such pools. For small pools, a few loans becoming delinquent would greatly increase the pools' delinquency rate.

To project losses on prime jumbo pools with fewer than 100 loans, Moody's first calculates an annualized delinquency rate based on vintage, number of loans remaining in the pool and the level of current delinquencies in the pool. For prime jumbo pools, Moody's first applies a baseline delinquency rate of 3.5% for 2005, 6.5% for 2006 and 7.5% for 2007. Once the loan count in a pool falls below 76, this rate of delinquency is increased by 1% for every loan fewer than 76. For example, for a 2005 pool with 75 loans, the adjusted rate of new delinquency is 3.54%. Further, to account for the actual rate of delinquencies in a small pool, Moody's multiplies the rate calculated above by a factor ranging from 0.20 to 2.0 for current delinquencies that range from less than 2.5% to greater than 50% respectively. Moody's then uses this final adjusted rate of new delinquency to project delinquencies and losses for the remaining life of the pool under the approach described in the methodology publication.

Bonds insured by financial guarantors

The credit quality of RMBS that a financial guarantor insures reflect the higher of the credit quality of the guarantor or the RMBS without the benefit of the guarantee. As a result, the rating on the security is the higher of 1) the guarantor's financial strength rating and 2) the current underlying rating, which is what the rating of the security would be absent consideration of the guaranty. The principal methodology Moody's uses in determining the underlying rating is the same methodology for rating securities that do not have financial guaranty, described earlier.

To determine tranches to place on review, Moody's compared the model-implied assessments to the current rating. To determine the model-implied assessments, Moody's applied the methodologies described above to all the transactions and their associated tranches through an automated process. Moody's is placing tranches on review that have model-implied assessments that differ significantly from their current ratings. In certain cases, Moody's performed additional analysis to confirm the review.

Over the coming weeks, Moody's will perform individual detailed transaction-specific analysis and conclude the review on these tranches. When assigning the final ratings to bonds, in addition to the approach described above, Moody's will consider the volatility of the projected losses and timeline of the expected defaults.

The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the uncertainty in our central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility due to servicer-related issues. The unemployment rate fell from 9.0% in April 2011 to 8.1% in April 2012. Moody's forecasts a further drop to 7.8% for 2013. Moody's expects house prices to drop another 1% from their 4Q2011 levels before gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these transactions.

Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF286084 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:

• Person approving the credit rating

For more information please see www.moodys.com.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

In addition to the information provided below please find on the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued each of the ratings.

Gregory Bessermann
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Deepika Kothari
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Takes Action on 2005-08 US Prime Jumbo RMBS: $2.2B on Review for Upgrade and $5.8B on Review for Downgrade
No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

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Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

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MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

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