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Announcement:

Moody's: Tenaga's full-year results are within expectation; Ratings unaffected

28 Oct 2016

Singapore, October 28, 2016 -- Tenaga Nasional Berhad's (Tenaga, A3 stable) financial results for the fiscal year ended 31 August 2016 (FY2016) are within Moody's expectations and continues to support its A3 senior unsecured ratings. The outlook on the rating is stable.

Tenaga's total electricity sales of 115.5TWh for FY2016 was 4.2% higher year-on-year (YoY) resulting from stronger electricity demand in Peninsular Malaysia, contributed by the warm weather condition which occurred during the third-quarter of FY2016. However, Tenaga's FY2016 overall revenue increased by 2.9% YoY, after factoring in the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) mechanism following a decrease in fuel costs.

Tenaga's reported EBITDA increased by 6.3% YoY to MYR14.8 billion in FY2016 compared to the same period last year. Adjusted for MYR390 million forex translation loss, Tenaga's FY2016 net profit reported a 12% YoY increase.

Based on Tenaga's FY2016 results, its estimated financial leverage, as measured by FFO/debt and retained cash flow to debt (RCF/debt) was around 32% and 28% respectively. These ratios have not been adjusted for Moody's standard adjustments.

Over the next 12-18 months, we expect Tenaga's cash interest coverage to be in the range of 6x-8x and its RCF/debt to be in the range of 17% - 25%.

"We expect the earnings growth for Tenaga over next 2-3 years to be driven by commissioning of 3GW of new generation capacity," says Abhishek Tyagi, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Tenaga's A3 rating reflects the application of Moody's rating methodology for government-related issuers (GRIs), which combines (i) Tenaga's standalone credit quality, or BCA of baa2; and (ii) a two-notch uplift based on Moody's joint default analysis (JDA) approach. This approach assumes a very high likelihood of support from the Malaysian government in a stress situation. The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Tenaga will maintain its dominant position in Malaysia's power sector and that there will be no material adverse changes in the regulatory environment in the near to medium-term.

Tenaga's rating could be upgraded if Malaysia's sovereign rating is upgraded, primarily reflecting Tenaga's strategic importance and our expectation for high level of support in case of need. The BCA could be raised if the government displays a track record of raising tariffs to allow Tenaga to recover variable costs through the imbalance cost pass-through adjustments, such that Retained Cash Flow/Debt exceeds 28% and interest coverage stays above 9x on a consistent basis.

Given our expectation of high government support, Tenaga's rating is resilient to a weakening in its financial fundamentals. Moody's would consider lowering the BCA if Tenaga's underlying credit strength weakens which can be due to: (1) a substantial deterioration in its operating performance; (2) regulatory changes which negatively affect its financial performance, such as if the incentive based regulation mechanism fails to pass-through changes in variable costs; or (3) aggressive debt funded acquisitions. Key credit metrics that would trigger a lowering of the BCA include adjusted Retained Cash Flow/Debt of less than 17%; and/or interest coverage of less than 6x on a consistent basis.

On the other hand, a partial sale of the government's majority ownership could prompt a review of Tenaga's rating, especially if the sale indicates that the company's importance to the government has decreased; because such a development would affect the level of government support incorporated in Tenaga's final A3 rating and stable outlook.

The methodologies used in this rating was Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities published in December 2013, and Government-Related Issuers published in October 2014. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Incorporated on 12 July 1990, Tenaga Nasional Berhad is the only vertically integrated electric utility in Malaysia. It is also the monopoly operator of the electricity transmission and distribution networks in the country. As at 31 May 2016, the Government of Malaysia and related entities control 60.2% shareholding of Tenaga.

As of August 2015, Tenaga had an installed capacity of 11,708MW (including Kapar Energy Ventures), accounting for approximately 53% of the installed capacity in West Malaysia, which is home to approximately 80% of the country's population. Tenaga also has an 83%-owned subsidiary, Sabah Electricity, which supplies electricity in the east Malaysian state of Sabah.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Abhishek Tyagi
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Terry Fanous
MD-Public Proj & Infstr Fin
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

No Related Data.
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