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Global Credit Research - 27 Apr 2011
New York, April 27, 2011 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. continued
to show either mild improvement or stability during the fourth quarter
of 2010, according Moody's Red-Yellow-Green®
quarterly property assessment. Across all sectors, measures
of market strength either improved slightly or stayed the same.
"The distribution of scores in all property types remained relatively
consistent with the last quarter," said Keith Banhazl,
a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Analyst. "The
bulk of observations still lie in the higher end of yellow territory."
Overall, the composite score for the United States is yellow at
65, one point higher than the previous quarter's score of
64. Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores
markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic
light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red,
34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The
new 2010 third quarter study reflects data from the second quarter of
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily composite sector score held steady for another quarter
to stay at Green 88. Fifty-seven of the 63 individual markets
are in green territory. The three strongest multifamily markets
are San Jose at Green 96, Newark at Green 95, and Ventura
at Green 94.
The retail score also held constant at Yellow 64 during the fourth quarter.
The strongest retail markets are Long Island and Honolulu, both
Green 81, with Los Angeles and San Francisco right behind,
at Green 80.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) gained four
points this quarter to Yellow 66, just on the cusp of green territory.
The vacancy rate decreased for the first time since 2008, down to
12.9% from 13.1% last quarter. Fort
Worth and New York have the highest scores at Green 88, followed
by Washington DC at Green 81.
The suburban office score also improved this quarter, from Yellow
45 to Yellow 48. The vacancy rate remained high but continued its
downward movement from last quarter, to 18.3% from
18.5%. The three strongest suburban office markets
are Nashville (Green 74), Trenton (Green 73) and Honolulu (Green
69). The cities with the lowest scores are Detroit (Red 14),
Las Vegas (Red 14), and Phoenix (Red 20).
The industrial sector picked up two more points in the fourth quarter,
from Yellow 59 to Yellow 61. However, the already high vacancy
rate increased once again, to 14.3% from 14.1%.
The full-service hotel score ticked up one point in the fourth
quarter to Yellow 58. Revenue per available room or RevPAR was
up once again over the same quarter last year, but the quarter's
9.6% growth represented a pullback from the stronger 10.3%
growth experienced the previous quarter.
The limited-service hotel sector gained another two points in the
fourth quarter to Yellow 55. While the improvement in demand projections
was not as strong as its full-service counterpart, only increasing
from 2.3% to 2.5%, year-over-year
RevPAR growth was better this quarter than last, at 9.2%
compared to 9.1%.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based
on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's
score in parenthesis: New York 77 (77), Los Angeles 76 (75),
Washington DC 72 (74), San Francisco 70 (69), Philadelphia
61 (65), Miami 68 (66), Chicago 60 (58), Houston 61
(57), Atlanta 53(51), and Dallas 54 (51).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 78
(81), New York 77 (77), Los Angeles 76 (75), Orange
County 74 (73), and Washington DC 72 (74).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Trenton 37(37),
Detroit 39 (41), Columbus 45 (49), Memphis 46 (57),
and Phoenix 48 (43).
The rating agency's report, "CMBS: Red --Yellow
-- Green™ Update, First Quarter 2011 Quarterly Assessment
of U.S. Property Markets" is available on the company's
web site, www.moodys.com.
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Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate outlook shows mild improvement
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