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Rating Action:

Moody's Upgrades Canadian Pacific Railway to Baa2; Positive Outlook

24 Apr 2014

Approximately $ 3.6 Billion of Debt Securities Affected

NOTE: On June 01, 2014, the press release was revised as follows: In the Regulatory Disclosures section, added the Canada Ancillary Disclosure as the fourth paragraph. Revised release follows.

Toronto, April 24, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded Canadian Pacific Railway Company's ("CPR") senior unsecured ratings to Baa2 from Baa3. This concludes the review commenced January 30, 2014. CPR's ratings outlook is positive.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The upgrade of CPR's ratings to Baa2 reflects the significant improvement in its operating results and financial position since new management was installed in mid-2012", said Darren Kirk, vice president and senior credit officer with Moody's. "The positive ratings outlook signals that the company's ratings could be further upgraded through the next 12-18 months should its strong performance trend continue", added Kirk.

CPR's Baa2 rating is underpinned by its well-positioned railway network and meaningful exposure to relatively stable commodity hauls. Good prospects for mid-to-upper single digit revenue growth from both price increases and higher volume levels coupled with strong execution that should contribute to an operating margin sustained above 30% also favorably influence the rating. The resulting expected improvement to CPR's EBITDA combined with robust free cash flow - even after significant capital expenditures that facilitate improving service levels - will provide the company with the ability to rapidly de-lever. Nonetheless, Moody's expects CPR will direct its growing cash flow towards share repurchases such that its adjusted financial leverage is maintained between 2.0x and 2.5x. The company's relatively small size versus its North American Class 1 peers, the limited time that it has demonstrated both its favorable operating performance trend and enhanced balance sheet strength, as well as its exposure to economic cyclicality, adverse weather conditions and increasing regulatory risks constrain the rating.

CPR has excellent liquidity provided by almost $300 million of unrestricted cash, full availability under its $1.2 billion revolving credit facility (matures November 2018) and Moody's expectation for free cash flow of at least $400 million in the next year. Debt maturities remain light through 2017 with about $100 million due through the first quarter of 2015. CPR has about $400 million in letters of credits issued under demand bilateral facilities which are backed by a similar amount of restricted cash.

A ratings upgrade could occur if Moody's expects the company to maintain an operating ratio comfortably above 30%, adjusted Debt/EBITDA below 2.5x and funds from operations to debt towards 35%.

A ratings downgrade could occur if Moody's expects the company to sustain its adjusted Debt/ EBITDA above 3x and funds from operations to debt below 25%.

Upgrades:

..Issuer: Canadian Pacific Railway Company

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Aug, 2021, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jan, 2022, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jan, 2042, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jan, 2022, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jun, 2018, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Mar, 2033, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture May, 2018, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture May, 2019, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Mar, 2023, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Oct, 2031, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Nov, 2039, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture May, 2037, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Upgraded to (P)Baa2 from (P)Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Upgraded to (P)Baa2 from (P)Baa3

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Canadian Pacific Railway Company

....Outlook, Changed To Positive From Rating Under Review

Canadian Pacific Railway Company, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, provides rail freight transportation services over a 14,000 mile network. The railroad serves the principal business centers of Canada from Montreal to Vancouver as well as the U.S. Midwest and Northeast regions. CPR is a wholly-owned subsidiary Canadian Pacific Railway Limited, a publicly traded entity.

The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Surface Transportation and Logistics Companies published in April 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Moody’s has not provided advisory services but may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity, its related third parties and/or the party that requested the rating within the past two years (including during the most recently ended fiscal year). Please see the special report “Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS’s credit rating agency in Canada” on the ratings disclosure page www.moodys.com/disclosures on our website for further information.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Darren M. Kirk
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
(416) 214-1635

Donald S. Carter, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
(416) 214-1635

Releasing Office:
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
(416) 214-1635

Moody's Upgrades Canadian Pacific Railway to Baa2; Positive Outlook
No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY100,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

​

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