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Rating Action:

Moody's Upgrades Four and Affirms 10 CMBS Classes of MSC 2003-IQ5

29 Mar 2012

Approximately $376 Million of Structured Securities Affected

New York, March 29, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded four classes and affirmed the ratings of 10 CMBS classes of Morgan Stanley Capital I, Inc. Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2003-IQ5 as follows:

Cl. A-4, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 19, 2007 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jun 9, 2010 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 19, 2007 Upgraded to A2 (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa1 (sf)

Cl. F, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2 (sf)

Cl. G, Affirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)

Cl. H, Affirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)

Cl. J, Affirmed at Ba2 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)

Cl. K, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)

Cl. L, Affirmed at B1 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned B1 (sf)

Cl. M, Affirmed at B2 (sf); previously on Oct 15, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned B2 (sf)

Cl. N, Affirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on Jun 9, 2010 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)

Cl. X-1, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The upgrades are due to increases in credit support due to payoffs and amortization. The affirmations of the principal classes are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed DSCR and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.

The rating of the IO Class, Class X-1, is consistent with the expected credit performance of its reference classes and thus is affirmed.

Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of 1.6% of the current balance. At last full review, Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 1.7%. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.

Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.

Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of the slowdown in growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. While commercial real estate property values are beginning to move in a positive direction, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity increases, distressed properties are cleared from the pipeline, and job creation rebounds. The hotel and multifamily sectors continue to show positive signs and improvements in the office sector continue with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where unemployment remains above long-term averages and business confidence remains below long-term averages. Performance in the retail sector has been mixed with lackluster holiday sales driven by sales and promotions. Consumer confidence remains low. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with increased securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates. Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects: an overall downward revision of real growth forecasts since last quarter, amidst ongoing and policy-induced banking sector deleveraging leading to a tightening of bank lending standards and credit contraction; financial market turmoil continuing to negatively impact consumer and business confidence; persistently high unemployment levels; and weak housing markets resulting in a further slowdown in growth.

The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating Fusion U.S. CMBS Transactions" published in April 2005, "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.60 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a pay down analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit estimates is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the underlying rating of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the underlying rating level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit estimates in the same transaction.

Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator version 1.0, which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and the IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point. For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator version 1.0 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.

Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 16, up from 15 at Moody's prior full review.

In cases where the Herf falls below 20, Moody's also employs the large loan/single borrower methodology. This methodology uses the excel based Large Loan Model v 8.2 and then reconciles and weights the results from the two models in formulating a rating recommendation. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations.

Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.

The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated May 04, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.

DEAL PERFORMANCE

As of the March 15, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 51% to $384 million from $779 million at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 53 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 14% of the pool, with the top ten loans, excluding defeased loans, representing 58% of the pool. Five loans, representing 13% of the pool, have defeased and are collateralized with U.S. Government securities, the same as at last review. The pool includes one loan with an investment grade credit estimate, representing 6.3% of the pool, the same as at last review.

Seventeen loans, representing 9% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.

No loans have been liquidated from the pool since securitization and there are also no loans currently in special servicing.

Moody's has assumed no default probability for any poorly performing loans and has estimated no losses from these troubled loans.

Moody's was provided with full year 2010 and partial year 2011 operating results for 86% and 43% of the non-defeased performing pool, respectively. Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 70%, compared to 74% at last full review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 10.75% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.5%.

Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.70X and 1.71X, respectively, compared to 1.52X and 1.51X, respectively, at last full review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.

The loan with a credit estimate is the Three Times Square Loan ($24.0 million -- 6.3% of the pool), which represents a 21% pari passu interest in a $115 million loan. The property is also encumbered by a subordinate B note totaling $94.8 million which is held outside the trust. The loan is secured by an 884,000 square foot (SF) Class A office building located in the Times Square office submarket of midtown Manhattan. The property remains 99% leased, the same as at last review. The building's largest tenants are Reuters Group (79% of the net rentable area (NRA) and lease expiration September 2021) and Bank of Montreal (12% of NRA and lease expiration November 2021). The loan is fully amortizing and has amortized 31% since securitization. The loan matures on November 15, 2021. Moody's current credit estimate and stressed DSCR are Aaa and 3.42X, respectively, compared to Aaa and 3.08X at Moody's last review.

The top three performing conduit loans represent 30% of the pool balance. The largest conduit loan is the Two Commerce Square Loan ($53.5 million -- 13.9% of the pool), which represents a 50% pari passu interest in a $107 million loan. The property is also encumbered by a $77 million subordinate B note held outside of the trust. The loan is secured by a 40-story, 953,000 square foot (SF) Class A office building located in the Center City office submarket of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The property was 86% leased as of September 2011 compared to 85% leased at last review. Property performance has declined due to new tenant leases signed at market terms, including concession packages, and lower operating expense recoveries. The largest tenants are Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP (23% of NRA and lease expiration April 2015) and Reliance Standard Life Insurance (13% of NRA and lease expiration December 2015). The loan matures Mary 15, 2013. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 85% and 1.15X, respectively, compared to 79% and 1.23x at last review.

The second largest performing conduit loan is the Plaza America Office Towers III & IV ($37.2 million - 9.7% of the pool), which represents a 50% pari passu interest in a $74.4 million loan. The loan is secured by two Class A office buildings located in Reston, Virginia totaling 473,000 SF. The property was 100% leased as of October 2011 compared to 91% leased at last review. This loan has amortized 12% since securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 71% and 1.45X, respectively, compared to 74% and 1.39X, at last review.

The third largest performing conduit loan is the Quail Springs Marketplace Loan ($25.1 million - 6.5% of the pool), which is secured by a 295,700 SF retail center located in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The largest tenants are Ultimate Electronics (11% of NRA and lease expiration January 2014) and Ross Dress for Less (10% of the NRA and lease expiration January 2014). The property was 98% leased, the same as at last review. The loan matures May 15, 2013 and has amortized 13% securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 80% and 1.28X, respectively, compared to 76% and 1.35X at last review.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

Although this credit rating has been issued in a non-EU country which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, this credit rating is deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 30 April 2012. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Gregory Reed
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Michael M. Gerdes
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Upgrades Four and Affirms 10 CMBS Classes of MSC 2003-IQ5
No Related Data.
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