Approximately $55.4 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, October 28, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded the rating of one class,
downgraded the ratings of three classes and affirmed four classes of Commercial
Mortgage Acceptance Corp, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through
Certificates 1999-C1 as follows:
Cl. X, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 27,
1999 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. H, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 30,
2009 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on May 24,
2007 Upgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at Ba2 (sf); previously on May 24,
2007 Upgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on Jul 30,
2009 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. M, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Jul 30,
2009 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. N, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Jul 30,
2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. O, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Jul 30,
2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
The upgrade is due to the significant increase in subordination due to
loan payoffs and amortization and the pool's exposure to defeased
loans, which represents 12% of the current pool balance.
The pool has paid down by 36% since Moody's last review.
The downgrades are due to higher expected losses for the pool resulting
from realized and anticipated losses from specially serviced and troubled
loans, a decline in loan diversity, as measured by the Herfindahl
(Herf) index, and concerns about refinance risk associated with
loans approaching maturity in an adverse environment. Nine loans,
representing 56% of the pool, have either matured or mature
within the next six months. Eight of these loans, representing
54% of the pool, have a Moody's stressed debt service coverage
(DSCR) less than 1.00X.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's
loan to value (LTV) ratio and Moody's stressed DSCR remaining within
acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss,
the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient
to maintain their current ratings.
Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of
28.8% of the current balance. At last review,
Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 28.9%.
Moody's stressed scenario loss is 29.6% of the current
balance. Moody's provides a current list of base and stress
scenario losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com
Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of
losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level
for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels.
If future performance materially declines, the expected level of
credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be
insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely
range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time
to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range
of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit
quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during
the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected
range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may
be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral
performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization
and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the current stressed macroeconomic
environment and continuing weakness in the commercial real estate and
lending markets. Moody's currently views the commercial real
estate market as stressed with further performance declines expected in
the industrial, office, and retail sectors. Hotel performance
has begun to rebound, albeit off a very weak base. Multifamily
has also begun to rebound reflecting an improved supply / demand relationship.
The availability of debt capital is improving with terms returning towards
market norms. Job growth and housing price stability will be necessary
precursors to commercial real estate recovery. Overall, Moody's
central global scenario remains "hook-shaped" for 2010
and 2011; we expect overall a sluggish recovery in most of the world's
largest economies, returning to trend growth rate with elevated
fiscal deficits and persistent unemployment levels.
The principal methodologies used in rating Commercial Mortgage Acceptance
Corp, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates 1999-C1
were "CMBS: Moody's Approach to Rating U.S.
Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000 and "CMBS:
Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions"
published in July 2000. Other methodologies and factors that may
have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be
found on Moody's website.
In addition to methodologies and research available on moodys.com,
Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit,
ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of
our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS
Conduit Model v 2.50 which is used for both conduit and fusion
transactions as well as the excel-based CMBS Large Loan Model v.
8.0 which is used for Large Loan transactions. Conduit model
results at the Aa2 level are driven by property type, Moody's
actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade
(which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate
Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 level are
driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's
LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure
of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level
diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other
concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis.
Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 and B2,
the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two
data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these
two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement
for loans with investment-grade credit estimates is melded with
the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result.
Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the underlying rating of the
loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels.
Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level
diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations
within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement
at the underlying rating level, is incorporated for loans with similar
credit estimates in the same transaction.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size,
where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration
has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including
risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances.
The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 9 compared
to 21 at Moody's prior review.
In cases where the Herf falls below 20, Moody's also employs
the large loan/single borrower methodology. This methodology uses
the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.0 and then reconciles
and weights the results from the two models in formulating a rating recommendation.
The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation
of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level
LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage,
loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These
aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits
associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers
both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the
rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance
of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's
monitors transactions on a monthly basis through two sets of quantitative
tools -- MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) and CMM
(Commercial Mortgage Metrics) on Trepp -- and on a periodic
basis through a comprehensive review. Moody's prior full review
is summarized in a press release dated July 30, 2009. Please
see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for
the last rating action and the ratings history.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a
third party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past
As of the October 15, 2010 distribution date, the transaction's
aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 93% to $55.4
million from $733.8 million at securitization. The
Certificates are collateralized by 26 mortgage loans ranging in size from
less than 1% to 14% of the pool, with the top ten
loans representing 72% of the pool. The pool contains 13
conduit loans representing 34% of the pool. The remaining
pool consists of five defeased loans (12% of the pool) and eight
specially serviced loans (54% of the pool).
Three loans, representing 15% of the pool, are on the
master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which
meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE
Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. Moody's
has assumed a high default probability for all the watchlisted loans plus
an additional loan that faces near-term refinance risk.
Moody's has estimated a $3.3 million loss (31%
expected loss based on a 100% default probability) from these troubled
Fourteen loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in
an aggregate realized loss of $8.9 million (23% loss
severity overall). Eight loans, representing 54% of
the pool, are currently in special servicing. The largest
specially serviced loan is The Place Apartments Loan ($7.6
million -- 14% of the pool), which is secured by a 230-unit
multifamily property located in Fort Myers, Florida. The
loan was transferred to special servicing in December 2008 due to monetary
default and is currently 60 days delinquent. The remaining seven
specially serviced loans are secured by a mix of property types.
Moody's has estimated an aggregate $12.5 million loss
(42% expected loss on average) for the specially serviced loans.
Based on the most recent remittance statement, Classes M through
P have experienced cumulative interest shortfalls totaling $2.5
million. Moody's anticipates that the pool will continue
to experience interest shortfalls because of the high exposure to specially
serviced loans. Interest shortfalls are caused by special servicing
fees, including workout and liquidation fees, appraisal subordinate
entitlement reductions (ASERs) and extraordinary trust expenses.
Moody's was provided with full year 2009 operating results for 89%
of the pool's nine performing conduit loans. Excluding specially
serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV
is 44%, compared to 91% at Moody's prior review.
Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 11.1%
to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's
value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.5%.
Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual
and stressed DSCRs are 1.46X and 2.99X, respectively,
compared to 1.15X and 1.66X at last review. Moody's
actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's
actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's
NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
Due to the high percentage of loans in special servicing, Moody's
analysis was largely based on a loss and recovery analysis for specially
serviced and troubled loans. The performance of the performing
conduit component, which only represents 15% of the pool,
is stable and performing inline with Moody's expectations.
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service's information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating.
MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Upgrades One, Downgrades Three and Affirms Four CMBS Classes of CMAC 1999-C1
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007