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Rating Action:

Moody’s affirms A2 IFS ratings of Arch Capital’s U.S. mortgage insurance subsidiaries; outlook is stable

21 July 2022


New York , July 21, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has affirmed the A2 insurance financial strength (IFS) ratings of the principal U.S. mortgage insurance subsidiaries of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (Arch Capital, senior Baa1 stable), including United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company (UGRIC), Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (AMI) and Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company (AMG). The outlook for the ratings remain stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The overall credit profile of the US mortgage insurance sector has shown continued improvement since the initial spike in delinquent mortgages due to the economic shutdowns from the coronavirus pandemic in Q2 2020. Strong house price appreciation and improving unemployment rates have provided a supportive macroeconomic environment for mortgage credit, and default rates among the mortgage insurers' portfolios have trended steadily lower over the past couple of years as delinquent loans in forbearance have cured. Firms in the sector have also reported strong net income returns on capital and very strong risk-adjusted capital adequacy metrics. The significant utilization of excess of loss reinsurance through insurance-linked notes (ILNs) and the traditional reinsurance market also bolsters the credit profiles of the US mortgage insurers. The $14.3 billion of current reinsurance limit available among firms in the sector dampens the potential for earnings and capital volatility that has historically impacted the mortgage insurance sector during adverse economic environments.

The A2 IFS ratings on Arch Capital's mortgage insurance subsidiaries reflect implicit and explicit support from Arch Capital and Arch Reinsurance Ltd. (Arch Re Bermuda, IFS rating A2 stable), as well as the firm's leadership position in the US mortgage insurance market, its strong core earnings power and the group's enhanced market presence and capabilities as a key operating unit within the larger Arch Capital Group. The Arch Mortgage platform leverages its strong underwriting and risk management capabilities to innovate in the evolving mortgage credit risk transfer market. These strengths are tempered by the commodity-like nature of the mortgage insurance product and the fact that the MI sector's fortunes are greatly influenced by lenders, the GSEs, public policy decisions, and other uncontrollable variables, including competition from government-sponsored mortgage insurers.

Arch Mortgage's credit profile also benefits from the firm's leadership position in the mortgage insurance market and its strong capital adequacy, bolstered by its substantial use of reinsurance to mitigate underwriting volatility in stress scenarios. Since July 2015, Arch Mortgage has transferred more than $8.7 billion of risk to the capital markets through 18 Bellemeade Re insurance-linked note (ILN) transactions, and has also sourced additional risk transfer protection through excess of loss and quota-share coverage in the traditional reinsurance market. Through these arrangements, Arch Mortgage has reinsurance covering nearly all of its business written between January 2017 and December 2021, providing more than $4.6 billion of current excess of loss reinsurance coverage to absorb losses during periods of elevated mortgage credit losses. As of March 31, 2022, Arch Mortgage reported a PMIERs sufficiency ratio of 205%, which is the highest among the peer group.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The following factors could result in an upgrade of the ratings: 1) upgrade of Arch Re Bermuda; 2) continued improvement of the group's stand-alone credit profile as evidenced by top-tier market share at attractive pricing levels and strong earnings; and 3) sustained maintenance of PMIERs sufficiency ratio at 170%, or above.

Conversely, the following factors could lead to a downgrade of the ratings: (1) evidence of diminished explicit and/or implicit support from Arch Capital and Arch Re Bermuda; 2) downgrade of Arch Re Bermuda; 3) non-compliance with PMIERs; 4) significant weakening of underwriting standards or pricing; and 5) public policy decisions that significantly diminish the role of private mortgage insurance in the US housing finance market.

The rating of AMG is expected to remain closely linked to those of UGRIC and AMI. Consequently, an upgrade or downgrade of these affiliates is likely to result in an upgrade or downgrade of AMG.

RATING LIST

The following ratings have been affirmed:

United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company – Insurance financial strength at A2;

Arch Mortgage Insurance Company -- Insurance financial strength at A2;

Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company - Insurance financial strength at A2;

Outlook actions:

United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company - Outlooks Remain Stable.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, writes insurance and reinsurance on a worldwide basis through operations in Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and South Africa, with a focus on specialty lines. The company has three operating platforms: insurance, reinsurance and mortgage. Through the first three months of 2022, Arch Capital reported $186 million of net income available to common shareholders. As of March 31, 2022, total shareholders' equity was approximately $12.9 billion.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Mortgage Insurers Methodology published in November 2019 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/65531. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.

Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

James Eck
VP-Sr Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS : 1 212 553 0376
Client Service : 1 212 553 1653

Scott Robinson, CFA
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS : 1 212 553 0376
Client Service : 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office :
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS : 1 212 553 0376
Client Service : 1 212 553 1653

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