Mexico, April 17, 2020 -- Moody´s de México, S.A. de C.V.
("Moody´s") has today affirmed the Aaa.mx Mexican
National Scale Issuer Rating of the Government of Mexico and in a related
action Moody's Investors Service downgraded the Global Scale Rating of
A3 to Baa1 while maintaining the negative outlook on that rating.
..Issuer: Mexico, Government of
.... Issuer Rating, Affirmed Aaa.mx
RATIONALE FOR AFFIRMING THE RATING AT Aaa.mx
The Baa1/Aaa.mx rating takes into account the country's large and
diversified economy, the lack of major macroeconomic imbalances,
and its fiscal strength, which despite deteriorating, is comparable
to that of Baa1-rated peers. The credit profile is also
supported by a healthy financial system and a sound monetary policy setting.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
Further evidence that medium-term growth is in decline would put
downward pressure on the rating. Rising fiscal deficits that cause
the government debt trajectory to shift upward beyond what we anticipate
in our baseline scenario, whether due to recurrent financial support
to PEMEX, a material increase in government spending or given a
substantial decline in government revenues, could also lead to a
downgrade. A continued deterioration in the policy framework would
also add negative pressure to the rating.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Ratings Methodology
published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1158631.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com.mx
for a copy of this methodology.
The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine
Government of Mexico's rating is between 31 December 2016 and 31 December
2019 (source: Haver analytics, Ministry of Finance,
Central Bank and INEGI)
Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative
measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country,
enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks.
NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are
not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities,
but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the
same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn"
country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za"
for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to
national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating
Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings
from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute
meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical
probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from
the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time.
For information on the historical default rates associated with different
global scale rating categories over different investment horizons,
please see https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1216309.
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings
and public information.
The rating have been disclosed to the rated entity prior to public dissemination.
A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process,
and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible
for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure
tab in www.moodys.com.mx.
The date of the last Credit Rating Action was 05 June 2019.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For further information please see the ratings tab
on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
This credit rating is subject to upgrade or downgrade based on future
changes in the financial condition of the Issuer/Security, and said
modifications will be made without Moody's de México S.A.
de C.V accepting any liability as a result.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.
At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s)
announced and described above.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity,
obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent
third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor
and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information
received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on www.moodys.com.mx
for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the
definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx
for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on
which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's
ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available.
Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most
reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see our website www.moodys.com.mx for further
Please see www.moodys.com.mx for any updates on changes
to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit
quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to
invest in any such security and/or issuer.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
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Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
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Mexico, DF 11000
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Client Service: 1 212 553 1653