Please Note
We brought you to this page based on your search query. If this isn't what you are looking for, you can continue to Search Results for ""
The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left.
Close
Você está prestes a deixar o site local do Brasil e será direcionado ao site global. Deseja continuar?
Não exibir esta mensagem novamente
Sim
Não
Close
Email Research
Recipient email addresses will not be used in mailing lists or redistributed.
Recipient's
Email

Use semicolon to separate each address, limit to 20 addresses.
Enter the
characters you see
Close
Email Research
Thank you for your interest in sharing Moody's Research. You have reached the daily limit of Research email sharings.
Close
Thank you!
You have successfully sent the research.
Please note: some research requires a paid subscription in order to access.
Already a customer?
LOG IN
Don't want to see this again?
REGISTER
OR
Accept our Terms of Use to continue to Moodys.com:

PLEASE READ AND SCROLL DOWN!

 

By clicking “I AGREE”, you indicate that you understand and intend these terms and conditions to be the legal equivalent of a signed, written contract and equally binding, and that you accept such terms and conditions as a condition of viewing any and all Moody’s information that becomes accessible to you (the “Information”). References herein to “Moody’s” include Moody’s Corporation. and each of its subsidiaries and affiliates..

 

Terms of One-Time Website Use

 

1.             Unless you have entered into an express written contract with www.moodys.com to the contrary and/or agreed to the Terms of Use at www.moodys.com or ratings.moodys.com, you agree that you have no right to use the Information in a commercial or public setting and no right to copy it, save it, print it, sell it, or publish or distribute any portion of it in any form.                   

 

2.             CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S MATERIALS FOUND ON WWW.MOODYS.COM OR SITES OTHER THAN RATINGS.MOODYS.COM MAY NOT BE DISPLAYED IN REAL TIME. FOR REAL-TIME DISPLAYS OF CREDIT RATINGS AND OTHER INFORMATION REQUIRED TO BE DISCLOSED BY MIS PURSUANT TO APPLICABLE LAW OR REGULATION, PLEASE USE RATINGS.MOODYS.COM.           

 

3.             You acknowledge and agree that Moody’s credit ratings: (i) are current opinions of the future relative creditworthiness of securities and address no other risk; and (ii) are not statements of current or historical fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell particular securities. Moody’s credit ratings and publications are not intended for retail investors, and it would be reckless and inappropriate for retail investors to use Moody’s credit ratings and publications when making an investment decision. No warranty, express or implied, as the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any Moody’s credit rating is given or made by Moody’s in any form whatsoever.

 

4.             To the extent permitted by law, Moody’s and its directors, officers, employees, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for: (i) any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with use of the Information; and (ii) any direct or compensatory damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud or any other type of liability that by law cannot be excluded) on the part of Moody’s or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with use of the Information.     

 

5.             You agree to read and be bound by the more detailed disclosures regarding Moody’s ratings and the limitations of Moody’s liability included in the Information.​​​

 

6.             You agree that any disputes relating to this agreement or your use of the Information, whether in contract, tort, statute or otherwise, shall be governed by the laws of the State of New York and shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of the State of New York located in the City and County of New York, Borough of Manhattan.​​​

I AGREE
Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Albania's B1 rating, maintains stable outlook

02 Aug 2019

London, 02 August 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the Government of Albania's B1 long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings and the B1 foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating. The outlook remains stable.

The decision to affirm the ratings balances the following key rating factors:

(1) Favorable economic prospects constrained by persisting structural challenges and decelerating reform advances;

(2) Debt burden on a declining trajectory but still high relative to B-rated peers and rising contingent liabilities;

(3) Susceptibility to shock stemming from the country's banking system and large government gross financing requirements;

The decision to maintain the stable outlook reflects credit risks being broadly balanced. Albania's macroeconomic profile and debt metrics have overall improved, but the country remains vulnerable to domestic and external shocks as well as to weaker political commitment to reform.

Albania's long-term foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba2 and B2, respectively. The local currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Baa3. The short-term foreign currency bond ceiling and short-term foreign currency deposit ceiling remain at Not Prime (NP).

RATINGS RATIONALE

AFFIRMATION OF B1 RATING

The decision to affirm Albania's credit rating balances the improved macroeconomic profile, progress in structural and institutional reforms and fiscal consolidation achieved in recent years against a number of persisting credit challenges that continue to weigh on the country's credit profile. These include a small economy exposed to environmental risks with a narrow export base and limited diversification, weak fiscal metrics compared with B-rated peers and moderate susceptibility to banking system risk and, to a lesser extent, risks stemming from the government's large financing needs reliant on the domestic banks.

FIRST DRIVER: FAVORABLE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS CONSTRAINED BY PERSISTING STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES AND DECELERATING REFORM ADVANCES

Albania's growth dynamics have improved in recent years, and economic prospects remain favorable despite this year's growth moderation. Real GDP expanded by 4.1% in 2018, the highest growth rate achieved in the past decade, and Moody's projects real GDP growth of 3.6% on average in 2019-20. Economic growth is supported by solid domestic demand and gradual improvements in the export sector. However, as a small and narrowly diversified economy, Albania remains exposed to domestic and external shocks, including slower growth of its trade partners' economies (Italy, in particular) and adverse weather conditions that can negatively affect agricultural output and the country's electricity supply. Moreover, the recent political volatility poses a risk to the economic outlook and to the pace of structural reform implementation.

The quality of Albania's institutions has improved in pursuit of EU accession, which is supportive of the country's medium-term growth prospects. Notable progress has been made on judicial reform, which is ongoing, along with advancements in combating informal economy, corruption and organized crime. While progress in the areas of rule of law and property rights has improved the business environment, the prospects for private investment in the non-energy sector crucially depend on the government's ability to maintain the reform momentum and to address the structural constraints that include weak infrastructure, skill shortages and large informality.

Progress on energy and tax system reforms has been mixed. Furthermore, the reform impetus in the energy sector has moderated since the end of the IMF program, and a number of reforms remain incomplete, in particular the liberalization of the sector and the unbundling of the energy companies. While the financial position of state-owned electricity enterprises has improved, inefficiencies in the energy sector continue to pose a risk to the economy and to the fiscal position of the government.

SECOND DRIVER: DEBT BURDEN IS ON A DECLINING TRAJECTORY BUT REMAINS HIGH RELATIVE TO B-RATED PEERS, WHILE CONTINGENT LIABILITIES ARE RISING

The debt stock decreased to just below 70% of GDP in 2018 from a high of 74% of GDP in 2015, but more recently this was mainly driven by the appreciation of the Lek versus the euro. Moody's expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to decline over the coming years, falling below 60% of GDP by 2022. Despite being on a gradual downward trajectory, the debt level remains high relative to the median of B-rated peers (54.5% of GDP).

The fiscal deficit was 1.6% of GDP in 2018, lower than planned in the budget, but mainly as a result of under-execution of capital spending, while tax revenue underperformed. Moody's anticipates a slower pace of fiscal consolidation than the authorities expect, mainly due to less optimistic assumptions on revenues. Moody's forecasts the fiscal deficit to remain around 2% of GDP in the medium-term, resulting in a more gradual decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Furthermore, Albania's debt dynamics are vulnerable to a negative growth shock and to a scenario of an exchange rate depreciation.

The stock of arrears has increased again since 2017 and reached about 1.9% of GDP at end-2018, although remaining below the level of 2013. The authorities set up a plan to accelerate the repayment of the arrears (mostly VAT refunds and local government arrears) over 2019 and 2020 and a strategy to prevent the creation of new arrears.

Albania faces other fiscal risks, particularly from weather-related electricity imports and contingent liabilities arising from the energy sector and public private partnerships (PPPs). In particular, the reliance on off-balance sheet financing in the form of PPPs to scale up investment has increased. As of 2018, Albania had signed PPP contracts (mostly concessions) with an estimated value of more than 30% of GDP and an additional 15% of GDP is in the pipeline. Governance and capacity issues surrounding PPPs underline the contingent liability risk.

THIRD DRIVER: SUSCEPTIBILITY TO SHOCK STEMMING FROM THE COUNTRY'S BANKING SYSTEM AND GOVERNMENT'S LARGE GROSS FINANCING REQUIREMENTS

The third driver is the country's moderate susceptibility to banking system risk and, to a lesser extent, risks stemming from the government's large financing needs reliant on the domestic banks. The banking system is adequately capitalized and liquid, but asset quality remains weak, despite having improved. NPLs declined to 11.4% of gross loans as of May 2019 from 18.3% at end-2016. However, about half of loans are denominated in foreign currency, in part to unhedged borrowers, pointing to asset quality risks.

Gross borrowing requirements exceeded 20% of GDP in 2018, and are expected to stay elevated in 2019-20, remaining relatively large compared to rating peers and well above the B-rated median of 8.8% of GDP in 2018. While the structure of the central government domestic debt, which accounts for about half of the total, has improved as maturity lengthened, short-term debt continues to account for about one third of the total as of end-2018, and displays a strong reliance on the domestic banking system, which holds about 60% of domestic debt. Nevertheless, government liquidity has been supported by access to external markets, with Albania successfully issuing a seven-year €500 million Eurobond in October 2018.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook balances Albania's improved macroeconomic profile and robust growth prospects against risks arising from limited shock absorption capacity on the back of a less favorable external environment. The debt burden has declined but remains high, while Albania's contingent liability risk has increased. Despite notable progress in strengthening the quality of institutions, Albania continues to lag similarly rated peers in terms rule of law and control of corruption, while the reform impetus has slowed in certain areas, with the current political volatility posing risks to the pace of reforms.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - UP

A material decline in public sector debt, along with a reduction of the fiscal risks posed by contingent liabilities and the energy sector, as well as further advances in strengthening institutions that results in an improved business environment and competitiveness would be credit positive.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - DOWN

Downward pressure on the rating would arise from a less prudent fiscal policy or materialization of contingent liabilities leading to a reversal of the public debt-to-GDP ratio's downward trajectory, or from a reduced political commitment to the institutional and economic reform agenda. Furthermore, the emergence of challenges in funding the current account deficit due to a significant decline of FDI would be credit negative.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 13,345 (2018 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 4.1% (2018 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 1.8% (2018 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -1.6% (2018 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -6.7% (2018 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 63.5%

Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

On 30 July 2019, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Albania, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's institutional strength/framework, have not materially changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in November 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Daniela Re Fraschini
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Yves Lemay
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the credit rating process or in preparing its Publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. MCO and Moody’s Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Charter Documents - Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY100,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.