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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Barclays PLC's senior unsecured debt ratings and changes the outlook to positive

17 May 2019

Outlook revised to positive from stable on Barclays Bank PLC. Outlook unchanged at stable on Barclays Bank UK PLC

London, 17 May 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service today affirmed the long-term senior unsecured debt ratings of Barclays PLC (Barclays, the holding company) at Baa3 and the short-term Commercial Paper ratings at P-3. The rating agency changed the outlook to positive from stable on Barclays' senior unsecured debt.

The rating agency also affirmed all ratings of Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays Bank) and changed the outlook to positive from stable on the senior debt and deposit ratings of Barclays Bank.

At the same time, the rating agency affirmed the ratings of Barclays Bank UK PLC (Barclays Bank UK), while keeping the outlook unchanged at stable.

The affirmation of Barclays' ratings reflects its ample liquidity and capital above regulatory requirements which mitigate risks from large exposure to capital markets activities and related wholesale funding and its moderate credit risk.

The positive outlook on Barclays' senior ratings reflects Moody's expectation that its operating performance and profitability prospects will improve, benefiting from a significant reduction in litigation and conduct risks. Moody's assessment of the volume of loss absorbing debt under its Advanced Loss Given Failure analysis and of the probability of government support have not changed.

"With large litigations settled and restructuring costs declining, Barclays' profitability is on a path to recovery and the bank is better positioned to mitigate against Brexit-related risks and tail risk from its large capital markets activities," said Alessandro Roccati, Senior Vice President at Moody's. "Capital generation through earnings will likely be sustained and the bank's liquidity is strong" added Roccati.

The affirmation of the ratings of Barclays Bank and the revised outlooks to positive reflects Moody's expectation that its operating performance will moderately improve due to improved revenues, as the recent restructuring starts to bear fruit, and good cost control including adjustments to variable compensation costs, to the extent necessary, are implemented.

The affirmation of the ratings of Barclays Bank UK with stable outlooks reflects Moody's expectation that its operating performance will remain broadly stable over the outlook period supported by good levels of profitability, moderate asset risk, robust capitalisation and good funding and liquidity.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Barclays

The positive outlook on Barclays' ratings reflects the progress the firm has made in its restructuring plan including the de-risking of its balance sheet, its improved asset risk profile, and its improved profitability, supported by the resolution of litigation matters including settlements with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and adequacy of provisions taken against current and anticipated Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) claims.

Moody's believes that going forward, Barclays is positioned to demonstrate improved and more stable profitability: non-recurring charges will likely be moderate over the next eighteen months, making the strong core profitability of the bank's retail and commercial operations more tangible.

The baa3 BCA of Barclays reflects: its (1) strong franchises in UK retail, business banking and global credit cards, (2) moderate credit risk, driven by strong loan quality, which is partly offset by its sizeable capital markets activities which are confidence sensitive and expose the firm to higher earnings volatility than the more traditional commercial banking activities (3) good regulatory capitalisation; (4) diversified funding and sound liquidity; and (5) improving profitability from a low base.

Barclays Bank

The positive outlook on Barclays Bank's ratings reflects the progress the firm has made in its restructuring plan including the de-risking of its balance sheet, which will lead to higher profits and an improved capital position.

The BCA of baa3 for Barclays Bank - the group's non-ring fenced bank - reflects its (1) good regulatory capitalisation and its (2) adequate funding and sound liquidity, which protect the bank against unexpected market shocks. The bank's BCA is constrained by (3) risks from investment banking and capital market activities, and (4) weak historical profitability, which we expect will continue to improve.

Barclays Bank UK

The BCA of a3 for Barclays Bank UK - the group's ring fenced bank -- reflects its (1) moderate asset risk; (2) robust capitalisation; (3) stable and predictable earnings from strong retail and small business banking franchises; (4) good funding and liquidity; and (5) limited reliance on confidence-sensitive wholesale funding and good liquidity levels.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Barclays

Barclays' baa3 notional BCA could be upgraded, following an improvement of the standalone credit profile of its main subsidiary Barclays Bank. An upgrade of Barclays' baa3 notional BCA would likely lead to a ratings upgrade. Barclays' ratings could also be upgraded if the group were to issue a substantially higher amount of bail-in-able liabilities or maintain excess financial resources at the level of the holding company, affording greater protection to its creditors.

A rating downgrade is unlikely, given the positive outlook on the firm's ratings. Barclays' baa3 notional BCA could be downgraded following a deterioration of the standalone credit profiles of its two main subsidiaries Barclays Bank and Barclays Bank UK. A lower notional BCA would likely lead to a downgrade of Barclays' ratings. Barclays' ratings could also be downgraded if we were to assess a lower degree of protection from the stock of bail-in-able liabilities, which we assess through our advanced LGF analysis.

Barclays Bank

Barclays Bank's baa3 BCA could be upgraded if the bank were to restore its profitability on a sustainable basis. Higher capitalisation levels, lower reliance on confidence-sensitive wholesale funding and a reduction in the size of capital markets activities would also be positive for the BCA. An upgrade of the BCA would likely lead to a ratings upgrade.

A rating downgrade is unlikely, given the positive outlook on the firm's ratings. Barclays Bank's baa3 BCA could be downgraded in the case of (1) a deterioration in the operating environment beyond our current expectations, (2) a material risk management failure or increase in risk appetite or leverage, and/ or (3) a material deterioration in the bank's liquidity or capital positions. A downgrade of the bank's BCA would likely lead to a ratings downgrade. The ratings for Barclays Bank could be downgraded in the case of a lower degree of protection for its creditors from the stock of bail-in-able debt, which we assess through its advanced LGF analysis.

Barclays Bank UK

An upgrade of Barclays Bank UK's a3 BCA could result from a much lower asset risk, or a considerable increase in profitability and liquidity. A higher BCA could lead to a rating upgrade. An upgrade of BB UK's long-term deposit rating could also result from a higher stock of bail-in-able liabilities that would provide higher protection for the bank's junior depositors, beyond what we currently expect.

Barclays Bank UK's a3 BCA could be downgraded in case of a deterioration in asset quality and weaker profitability, driven by Brexit uncertainties, or lower capitalisation or a deterioration in the bank's liquidity profile. A downgrade of the BCA would likely lead to a rating downgrade. The rating could also be downgraded due to a reduction in the stock of bail-in-able liabilities that would reduce the degree of protection for junior depositors.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in August 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

..Issuer: Barclays PLC

Affirmations:

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed baa3

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-3

.... Long-term Issuer Rating, Affirmed Baa3, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

.... Short-term Issuer Rating, Affirmed P-3

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)Baa3

....Subordinate Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)Ba1

....Other Short-term, Affirmed (P)P-3

....Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Affirmed Ba3 (hyb)

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Baa3, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba1

.... Senior Unsecured Shelf, Affirmed (P)Baa3

.... Subordinate Shelf, Affirmed (P)Ba1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC

..Affirmations:

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed baa3

.... Long-term Deposit Note / CD Program, Affirmed (P)A2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed A2, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

....Backed Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

....Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Issuer Rating, Affirmed A2, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)A2

.... Other Short-term, Affirmed (P)P-1

.... Other Short-term, Affirmed P-1

....Subordinate Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)Ba1

....Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Affirmed Ba3 (hyb)

....Pref. Stock Preferred Stock, Affirmed Ba2 (hyb)

....Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba2 (hyb)

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba1

.... Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed A2, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

....Short-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed P-1

.... Senior Unsecured Shelf, Affirmed (P)A2

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch

..Affirmations:

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, New York Branch

..Affirmations:

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Paris Branch

..Affirmations:

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)A2

.... Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed A2, Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

.... Short-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore Branch

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Tokyo Branch

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment ,Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Barclays Bank of Canada

.... Backed Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong Branch

..Affirmations:

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed A2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed A2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

..Issuer: Barclays Bank PLC, Cayman Branch

Affirmations:

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Barclays Capital (Cayman) Limited

Affirmations:

....Backed Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)A2

.... Backed Subordinate Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)Ba1

....Backed Other Short-term, Affirmed (P)P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Financial LLC

Affirmations:

.... Backed Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)A2

.... Backed Other Short-term, Affirmed (P)P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Overseas Investment Company B.V.

Affirmations:

....Backed Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba2 (hyb)

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays US CCP Funding LLC

Affirmations:

....Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Barclays US Funding LLC

Affirmations:

.... Backed Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....No Outlook Assigned

Issuer: Woolwich plc

Affirmations:

....Backed Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba2 (hyb)

.... Backed Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Stable

Issuer: Barclays Bank UK PLC

..Affirmations:

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed a3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed a3

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed Aa2(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed P-1(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed Aa2

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed P-1

.... Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed A1, Outlook Remains Stable

.... Short-term Deposit Rating, Affirmed P-1

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Remains Stable

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Alessandro Roccati
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Ana Arsov
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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