Belfius Bank's BFSR upgraded to D+/ba1; outlook stable
Paris, May 14, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed Belfius Bank SA/NV's
and its supported long-term and short-term senior unsecured
and deposit ratings at Baa1/Prime-2. The rating agency concurrently
upgraded Belfius Bank's standalone bank financial strength rating
(BFSR) to D+ -- equivalent to a ba1 baseline credit
assessment -- from D-/ba3. The outlook is
stable on the long-term ratings and the BFSR.
The upgrade reflects (1) the bank's progress in rebranding the bank
and recovering customer operations; (2) the material improvement
in liquidity over the past two years; and (3) the improved risk profile
as a result of reduced exposure to Dexia Credit Local (DCL; Baa2
negative/Prime-2, E stable /ca) and asset disposals.
However, the BFSR remains constrained by the still-limited
visibility on the bank's profitability, the existence of high
concentrations in its investment portfolio, and the legacy portfolio
that it inherited from Dexia Group, which continues to weigh on
the bank's capital and liquidity.
In addition, Moody's has upgraded Belfius Bank's and its supported
subordinated debt to Ba2 from B1, and Belfius Financing Company
S.A's backed junior subordinated debt rating to Ba3(hyb) from B2(hyb),
as a reflection of Belfius Bank's higher standalone credit strength.
The outlook is stable on these ratings. Belfius Bank's 6.25%
cumulative junior subordinated debt rating remains unaffected at Caa1
(hyb) due to the ban on coupon payments that the European Commission (EC)
imposed on these securities until the end of 2014.
Please refer to the list of affected debts at the end of this report.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade of Belfius Bank's standalone credit strength reflects the
following drivers.
-- PROGRESS ACHIEVED IN REBRANDING THE BANK AND RECOVERING
CUSTOMER OPERATIONS
The bank's franchise was affected by the credit deterioration of its previous
owner Dexia Group in 2011, but the situation has materially improved
since October 2011 under the ownership of the Kingdom of Belgium (Aa3
stable). The new name aimed to distance its image from Dexia Group
and signaling that the bank would take a different direction by focusing
on serving its domestic core markets. Belfius's brand recognition
rate is now in line with that of its main peers. Customer funding,
which had dropped to around EUR76 billion in November 2011 has recovered
to EUR79.5 billion at year-end 2013, as reported by
the bank.
-- MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT IN LIQUIDITY
Belfius Bank's improved liquidity since 2011 is evidenced by the
circa 65% decrease in its reliance on central bank and secured
short-term funding to EUR22 billion at year-end 2013 or
12% of its total balance sheet based on Moody's estimates.
These funding sources accounted for 27% of the bank's total
liabilities at year-end 2011. The residual central bank
funding at year-end 2013 is limited to the EUR13.5 billion
LTRO from the European Central Bank, which finances EUR13.4
billion state-guaranteed debt issued by DCL.
This progress was primarily achieved thanks to the drastic decrease in
the financing provided to DCL over the period. Additionally,
as a result of the recovery in deposits, Belfius Bank currently
has excess customer funds over loans that are used to finance its other
assets. The successful issuances of covered bonds under the Belgian
legislation in place since 2012 have also allowed the bank to lengthen
the term structure of its wholesale funding.
-- IMPROVED RISK PROFILE AS A RESULT OF REDUCED EXPOSURE
TO DCL AND ASSET DISPOSALS
Moody's considers that credit risks related to DCL have now subsided
sufficiently and the rating agency does not expect material losses to
stem from the current legacy portfolio in a base case scenario.
The bank reports that gross and net exposures to Dexia Group entities
decreased to EUR13.4 billion (state-guaranteed debt) and
nil, respectively at year-end 2013, from circa EUR56
billion and EUR22.6 billion, respectively at end-September
2011. Belfius Bank also carried out circa EUR7.5 billion
de-risking operations in its investment portfolio since the end
of 2011, notably in the legacy bond portfolio in run-off
inherited from Dexia Group, which decreased EUR5.9 billion
over the period to EUR12.4 billion at year-end 2013.
-- CONSTRAINTS ON THE STANDALONE CREDITWORTHINESS
The following challenges continue to constrain Belfius Bank's intrinsic
creditworthiness:
(1) While the volatility observed in the bank's result over the
past two years limits the visibility on its ability to generate sufficient
profit in the near future to increase its loss-absorption capacity,
the recurring profit prospects remain relatively weak in our view.
(2) Belfius is exposed to high credit concentrations in both its investment
portfolio and core public-sector lending operations. In
particular, the bank's portfolio of Italian government bonds
and Spanish covered bonds imply some tail risk, despite the positive
effects of the selective de-risking operations the bank carried
out in 2012 and 2013;
(3) The holding of the legacy bond portfolio weighs on Belfius's bottom
line profitability because of the very low spreads over LIBOR that it
generates, resulting in limited profitability for this portfolio.
It also weighs on the bank's capital by generating non-negligible
negative AFS reserves and risk-weighted assets that are prone to
volatility depending on the evolution of markets, and to a lesser
extent on its liquidity.
-- DEBT & DEPOSIT RATINGS
As a result of the upgrade of Belfius Bank's standalone BFSR,
the systemic uplift from the bank's BCA has reduced to three notches
from five, which included some extraordinary support from the Belgian
government, the bank's 100% owner. Belfius Bank's
Baa1 debt and deposit ratings continue to incorporate a very high probability
of systemic support from the Belgian government, if needed.
--- RATIONALE FOR THE OUTLOOKS
The outlook is stable on Belfius Bank's BFSR, consistent with Moody's
view that the firm's standalone BCA incorporates all currently foreseeable
risks over the outlook period.
The outlook is stable on Belfius Bank's and its supported long-term
senior unsecured and deposit ratings, in line with the outlook on
the firm's BFSR.
-- SUBORDINATED AND HYBRID DEBT
The upgrade of Belfius Bank and its supported subordinated debt ratings
to Ba2 from B1 is triggered by the upgrade of the bank's BFSR.
The upgrade of Belfius Financing Company's backed junior subordinated
debt rating to Ba3 (hyb) from B2(hyb) was also triggered by the upgrade
of the bank's standalone BFSR. Belfius Financing Company's backed
junior subordinated debt rating is positioned two notches below Belfius
Bank's adjusted BCA (equivalent to the bank's standalone BCA in
the absence of parental and cooperative support).
All the above ratings carry a stable outlook.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP / DOWN
Belfius's BFSR and thus its senior ratings could be upgraded as a result
of (1) further reduction in risk concentrations in its investment portfolio
without materially affecting the bank's capital base; or (2) evidence
of further recovery and stabilisation in its profitability; or (3)
further significant improvement in its liquidity position.
Factors that may exert negative pressure on Belfius's standalone credit
strength include (1) deterioration in its liquidity position that may
result from difficulties in accessing stable funding; (2) a significant
increase in credit losses stemming from the investment portfolio or the
loan book; and/or (3) an inability to generate sufficient profit
to further strengthen its capital base.
The bank's senior ratings could be downgraded if (1) Moody's downgrades
the BFSR; or (2) Belgian sovereign debt experiences a multi-notch
rating downgrade. In addition, a downward revision of Moody's
current assumptions of government (systemic) support --
which may arise in the context of the new Bank Recovery and Resolution
Directive -- could also have adverse implications for the
Baa1 long-term ratings.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
The following ratings were upgraded with a stable outlook:
- Belfius Bank's BFSR to D+/ba1, from D-/ba3
- Belfius Bank subordinated debt to Ba2 from B1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed subordinated debt to
Ba2 from B1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed junior subordinated
debt to Ba3 (hyb), from B2 (hyb)
The following ratings were upgraded:
- Belfius Bank's provisional subordinated MTN programme rating
to (P)Ba2, from (P)B1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed provisional subordinated
MTN programme rating to (P)Ba2, from (P)B1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed provisional junior subordinated
MTN programme rating to (P)Ba3, from (P)B2
The following ratings were affirmed with a stable outlook:
- Belfius Bank's senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings,
at Baa1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed senior unsecured debt,
at Baa1
The following ratings were affirmed:
- Belfius Bank's provisional senior unsecured MTN programme
rating, at (P)Baa1
- Belfius Bank's short-term deposit ratings,
at Prime-2
- Belfius Bank's long-term Deposit Note/CD Programme
rating at (P)Baa1
- Belfius Bank's short-term Deposit Note/CD Programme
rating at (P)Prime-2
- Belfius Financing Company's backed provisional senior unsecured
MTN programme rating, at (P)Baa1
- Belfius Financing Company's backed commercial paper rating,
at Prime-2
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published
in May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Yasuko Nakamura
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Carola Schuler
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's affirms Belfius Bank's senior unsecured rating at Baa1/P-2; outlook stable