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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Carnival Corporation's A3 unsecured rating

15 Oct 2019

New York, October 15, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc's (collectively referred to as "Carnival") A3 senior unsecured and Prime-2 commercial paper ratings. The outlook remains stable.

"The affirmation reflects our expectation that despite some earnings pressure caused by several macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, Carnival's credit metrics will remain appropriate for the rating category," stated Pete Trombetta, Moody's lodging and cruise analyst. "Carnival's management team has a good track record of prudent balance sheet management and we expect the company will maintain leverage within its publicly stated target of 2.0x to 2.5x," added Trombetta. Moody's forecasts Carnival's retained cash flow to net debt will approximate 30% at the end of 2020, above our downgrade factor of below 25%.

Affirmations:

..Issuer: Carnival Corporation

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Affirmed (P)A3

....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed A3

..Issuer: Carnival plc

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Affirmed (P)A3

....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed A3

..Issuer: Long Beach (City of) CA

....Senior Secured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed A3

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Carnival Corporation

....Outlook, Remains Stable

..Issuer: Carnival plc

....Outlook, Remains Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

Carnival benefits from its position as the largest worldwide cruise line (in terms of revenues, fleet size and number of passengers carried) with significant geographic and brand diversification. The company also benefits from its aforementioned conservative financial policy as reflected by its track record of prudent balance sheet management. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical events causing some earnings pressure, we forecast Carnival's credit metrics will remain solid through the fiscal year end November 30, 2020 with retained cash flow to net debt of about 30% and EBITA/interest expense of about 11x. Carnival also benefits from Moody's view that while industrywide capacity will increase, capacity expansion will remain at a rational level as a result of supply constraints. In addition, Moody's believes there will be enough consumer demand to support the expected supply increases given strong travel demand. Also, cruises offer a favorable value proposition relative to land-based vacations. Key credit risks include the highly seasonal and capital intensive nature of cruise companies, competition with all other vacation options, and the cruise industry's moderate exposure to economic and industry cycles as well as weather related incidents.

The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's view that Carnival will maintain retained cash flow above 25% and EBITA/interest above 6.0x over the next 12 to 18 months.

Ratings could be upgraded should Carnival evidence a commitment to maintaining debt levels in line with its earnings and cash flow through a predictable economic and industry downcycle such that Carnival maintains retained cash flow to net debt above 40% and EBITA to interest expense above 12x.

Carnival's ratings could be downgraded if it appears likely that retained cash flow to net debt would remain below 25% or EBITA to interest expense remain below 6.0x.

Carnival's liquidity is adequate. Moody's expects Carnival's cash flow plus committed ship financings will be able to support the company's capital spending needs, dividends, and mandatory debt amortization over the next 12 to 18 months. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Carnival has three ships being delivered and capex spend of about $2.0 billion related to those new ships. This amount of capex -- concentrated in one quarter -- brings Carnival's overall liquidity down from good to adequate. At August 31, 2019, Carnival had $1.153 billion of cash and about $238 million in commercial paper outstanding. Carnival maintains alternate liquidity comprised of the following: (a) a US $1.7 billion, EUR1.0 billion, and GBP150 million committed multi-currency revolving credit facility expiring August 2024; (b) $300 million floating rate revolver due September 2020 and (c) committed export credit facilities aggregating approximately $10.2 billion which will be used to help fund payments for ship deliveries. The company also has commercial paper programs in place (US$2.5 billion at Corp and plc and a EUR1.5 billion multi-currency ECP program at plc) that are collectively supported by the long term committed revolving credit facility.

Moody's considers CO2 and air pollution risk to be high for the cruise industry. Carnival has a goal in place to reduce its CO2 emissions by 25% by 2020 relative to its 2005 baseline -- to date, according to the company, it has achieved a 27.6% reduction. Carnival has been proactive in retrofitting its fleet with exhaust gas cleaning systems and introducing ships that run on liquefied natural gas. Moody's does not expect the company's environmental programs to affect the ratings in the near to medium term.

Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc own the world's largest passenger cruise fleet operating under multiple brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America, Princess Cruises, AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, and P&O Cruises, among others. Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc operate as a dual listed company. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, US and Southampton, United Kingdom. Net revenues were $16 billion as of for the LTM period ended August 31, 2019.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Peter Trombetta
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Janice Hofferber, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

​

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