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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Chung Kuo Insurance's A3 IFSR; changes outlook to negative

30 September 2022


Hong Kong , September 30, 2022 - Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the A3 insurance financial strength rating (IFSR) of Chung Kuo Insurance Co., Ltd (Chung Kuo Insurance).

Moody's has also changed the insurer's outlook to negative from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The change in outlook to negative reflects the level of strain on the capital, earnings and financial flexibility of Chung Kuo Insurance as claims on pandemic policies continue to increase.

The rising claims significantly eroded the insurer's historically strong capitalization, which was a key driver supporting its A3 IFSR. The insurer's risk-based capital (RBC) ratio declined significantly to 294% as of 30 June 2022 from over 600% as of 31 December 2021, mainly reflecting the TWD5 billion retained claims payment and reserves set aside for pandemic policies in the first half of 2022.

The ultimate extent of capital erosion depends mainly on the level of further coronavirus cases and capital injections from Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (Mega FHC, A2 stable). The insurer targets to complete a TWD2 billion capital injection from Mega FHC in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would top up the RBC ratio as of 30 June 2022 to above 300% on a pro-forma basis. However, Moody's expects this capital injection alone is unlikely to be sufficient to underpin the insurer's capital position at a strong level in the next 12-18 months.

The insurer's profitability will also deteriorate significantly in 2022 reflecting the rising claims, with the insurer reporting net losses of around TWD3.1 billon in the first half of 2022. That said, Moody's expects the insurer's earnings pressure to ease from the second quarter of 2023 because most in-force pandemic policies carry 1-year term and will mature by then after the insurer stopped selling the pandemic policies in April 2022.

In addition, the insurer has raised significant short-term borrowings to settle its rising claims payments, which will meaningfully increase its financial leverage from a historically low level and strain its financial flexibility. Moody's expects the insurer's leverage ratio to gradually reduce as it repays its borrowings with proceeds from the capital injection and claims recoveries from reinsurers.

The affirmation of the A3 IFSR reflects the insurer's historically solid capital base and liquid investment portfolio. The insurer's investment portfolio is highly liquid to support its claims payments, although it has increased its equity allocation that results in higher asset risk exposure. Cash, deposits, investment-grade bonds, funds and listed equities accounted for more than 80% of its total investments as of the end of June 2022.

In addition, the insurer has good financial flexibility because of the support it is likely to receive from Mega FHC, in times of stress.

Offsetting these strengths is the insurer's weaker underwriting profitability than that of its domestic peers, primarily because of its high exposure to large commercial line risk with higher earnings volatility. That said, its underwriting profitability has gradually improved mainly thanks to its tighter risk selection on motor business. In addition, the insurer is exposed to the risk of potential reserve inadequacy, underpinned by unfavorable reserve development in past few years.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's has revised the insurer's Governance Issuer Profile Score to G-3 from G-2, and its Credit Impact Score to CIS-3 (moderately negative) from CIS-2 (neutral-to-low), while maintaining its Environmental Issuer Profile Score of E-3 and its Social Issuer Profile Score of S-3. This mainly reflects the insurer's shift to a more aggressive financial policy, underpinned by its use of significant short-term borrowings instead of asset disposals to fund its liquidity needs. The significant losses from pandemic policies also raise concerns over the insurer's product risk management. As a result, Moody's considers governance risks under its environmental, social and governance (ESG) framework a key driver of today's rating action.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade is unlikely. However, Moody's could change the outlook to stable if (1) Chung Kuo Insurance maintains strong capitalization, with its RBC ratio staying above 450% or gross underwriting leverage (GUL) below 2.3x consistently, or (2) its profitability improves consistently, such that it reports net profit consistently or its combined ratio excluding losses on pandemic policies stays below 98%.

Moody's could downgrade Chung Kuo Insurance's rating if (1) the insurer's RBC ratio falls below 400% or its GUL exceeds 2.5x on a consistent basis; (2) there is a sustained deterioration in profitability (for example, it reports net losses consistently or its combined ratio excluding losses on pandemic policies stays above 100%); (3) its financial leverage rises above 40% on a consistent basis; (4) high risk assets ratio rises above 65% on a consistent basis; (5) there is a significant decline in external reinsurance protection relative to its exposure.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Property and Casualty Insurers Methodology published in August 2022 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/391814 . Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Headquartered in Taipei, Chung Kuo Insurance Co., Ltd offers a wide range of property & casualty insurance products and is a wholly owned non-life insurance subsidiary of Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd.. As of the end of 2021, its total assets stood at TWD20.1 billion and shareholders' equity at TWD7.9 billion.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions .

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com .

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com .

Moody's considers a rated entity or its agent(s) to be participating when it maintains an overall relationship with Moody's. Unless noted in the Regulatory Disclosures as a Non-Participating Entity, the rated entity is participating and the rated entity or its agent(s) generally provides Moody's with information for the purposes of its ratings process. Please refer to https://ratings.moodys.com for the Regulatory Disclosures for each credit rating action, shown on the issuer/deal page, and for Moody's Policy for Designating Non-Participating Rated Entities, shown on https://ratings.moodys.com .

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235 .

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com .

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com .

Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Kelvin Kwok, CFA
AVP-Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Chen Huang
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office :
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

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