Approximately US$68 million of debt securities affected
New York, September 17, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service today affirmed the Ba3 Corporate Family Rating
(CFR) and senior unsecured rating of Empresa Electrica de Guatemala S.A.
(EEGSA) and changed the rating outlook to positive from stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action is underpinned by EEGSA's ability to
generate robust cash flows and record solid credit metrics despite the
reduction of the Value Added Distribution-tariffs (VAD) in August
2008 and the substantial increase in financial leverage of around US$125
million earlier this year. The additional indebtedness has weakened
EEGSA's credit metrics modestly such that its CFO pre-W/C
to debt and interest coverage dropped to approximately 23.2%
and 4.3x, respectively, for the twelve months ended
June 30, 2012 compared to average 2009-2011 CFO pre-W/C
to debt and interest coverage of around 30% and 4.9x,
respectively.
That said, these lower metrics are still robust for EEGSA's
current rating, and somewhat offset our concerns about the credit
supportiveness of the Guatemalan regulatory environment, particularly
considering the litigious relationship that developed between EEGSA's
previous owners and the Guatemalan regulator, Comision Nacional
de Electricidad ("CNEE") following the 2008 VAD tariff reduction.
We believe that EEGSA's relationship with the CNEE has improved following
the utility's change in ownership in December 2010, and the
appointment of the new members of the CNEE's Board, including
the President, following the installment of the newly elected government
early this year. However, uncertainty remains as the next
VAD-tariff for the 2013-2017 period is scheduled to become
effective on August 1, 2013.
It is our understanding that the short-term indebtedness was incurred
for tax optimization reasons to fund a substantial dividend distribution
of around US$132 million during the second quarter of 2012 in anticipation
of certain amendments in the Guatemalan tax code. While this material
change in EEGSA's capital structure is a credit negative,
the rating action incorporates the commitment of EEGSA's management
and its majority indirect shareholder, EPM, not to increase
financial leverage further over the foreseeable future, and to manage
the company in a prudent fashion, such that it records a maximum
EBITDA to debt and a minimum EBITDA to financial costs of at least of
3.5x and 4.5x, respectively.
The change of the rating outlook to positive also incorporates our expectation
that EEGSA will successfully refinance around US$85 million of
the short-term debt incurred this year with long-term bank
loans. EEGSA borrowed the balance (approximately US$30 million)
under its new five year US$50 million committed credit facility
that expires in February 2017, which we understand EEGSA will repay.
The rating action also considers the successful execution of this credit
facility because it enhances EEGSA's liquidity profile, and
its ability to bridge its working capital requirements that result mainly
from some delays in recovering power procurement costs. Furthermore,
it somewhat eases our concerns about the refinancing risk associated with
the maturity of the 8.5% US$68 million senior unsecured
144-A debt obligations that will become due in December 2014.
An upgrade of EEGSA's ratings could be triggered by a reasonable
outcome of the 2013 VAD-review that maintains EEGSA's ability
to generate robust cash flows, which in the absence of any significant
change in its capital structure in connection with new additional indebtedness,
allows the utility to report credit metrics that are strong for the Ba-rating
category.
Given the positive outlook, limited prospects exist for a downgrade
of EEGSA's ratings over the near term. That said, downward
rating pressure could surface in the event there is a credit negative
outcome in the 2013 VAD-review that raises questions about the
predictability and transparency of the tariff review process and/or signals
a substantial deterioration in the Guatemalan regulatory framework that
negatively affects EEGSA's ability to recover costs on a timely
basis. Furthermore, a rating downgrade is likely if EEGSA
does not manage its internal liquidity in a prudent fashion and/or chooses
to further increase financial leverage to fund significant dividend distributions
that results in a deterioration in EEGSA's credit metrics.
Specifically, a rating downgrade could be triggered if EEGSA's
RCF to debt and interest coverage falls below 13% and 3.5x,
respectively, for an extended period.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Global Regulated
Electric Utilities published in August 2009. Please see the Credit
Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Headquartered in Guatemala City, EEGSA is the largest electric utility
in the country in terms of GWh distributed. EEGSA owns 100%
of the distribution assets within its service area and operates under
an Authorization Agreement expiring in 2048, to provide electric
distribution services to the Departments of Guatemala, Escuintla
and Sacatepequez. EEGSA is indirectly 80.9% owned
by EPM October 22, 2010. The balance is held by the Guatemalan
government (14.2%), by individual shareholders (3%),
and by EEGSA employees (2%).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued
by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's
Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf,
London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
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this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
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this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
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Natividad Martel
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
William L. Hess
MD - Utilities
Infrastructure Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
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JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's affirms EEGSA's ratings; outlook changed to positive