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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms ExxonMobil's Aaa rating, outlook changed to negative

25 Feb 2016

Approximately $19 billion of rated long-term debt affected

New York, February 25, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) affirmed the Aaa issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Exxon Mobil Corporation (ExxonMobil) and its guaranteed subsidiaries as well as the Prime-1 short-term rating. The rating outlook was changed to negative from stable.

"The negative outlook reflects our expectations of negative free cash flow and weak cash flow based leverage metrics for ExxonMobil in 2016 and 2017," commented Pete Speer, Moody's Senior Vice President. "While the company is cutting its capital spending and operating costs in response to lower commodity prices, this diminished level of capital reinvestment could adversely affect ExxonMobil's reserve replacement and production profile in the latter part of this decade."

RATINGS RATIONALE

The affirmation of ExxonMobil's Aaa ratings considers the company's differentially large proved reserve and production scale, the countercyclical benefits of its integrated operations and its low financial leverage as measured against proved reserves and book capitalization measures. The company's proved reserves are almost twice that of its Aa-rated integrated peers, while it is also one of the world's largest petroleum refiners and petrochemical producers. ExxonMobil's integrated business model provides resiliency in navigating volatile commodity price fluctuations, while its size and strong balance sheet enables it to maintain a relatively low cost structure and fund necessary capital investments through commodity price cycles.

Moody's expects low oil and natural gas prices to persist for the next several years. Under Moody's commodity price estimates, ExxonMobil's cash flow based leverage metrics will be weak for its Aaa rating and the company will have about $10 billion of negative free cash flow in 2016. Negative free cash flow will continue in 2017 but decline significantly with rising prices and further capital spending cuts in Moody's forecasts. The rise in debt levels could be tempered by ongoing asset sales, but Moody's still sees debt/capitalization rising towards 25% through 2017 while retained cash flow/net debt falls in the range of 20-25%.

The negative rating outlook points to the rising debt levels and weak cash flow based credit metrics and investment returns in 2016 and 2017. It also reflects the risk that ExxonMobil's reduced capital investment for a prolonged period could result in lower levels of reserve replacement and declining production volumes over the medium term.

The company reported that its proved reserve replacement in 2015 was 67% of production in 2015, with the shortfall caused primarily by reduced natural gas reserves reflecting lower natural gas prices. While price related revisions are often temporary in nature, the reduction in overall proved reserves highlights the ongoing long-term fundamental challenge for ExxonMobil and its peers in replacing reserves and production through ongoing capital investment in what are often large projects with long development cycles. The company has indicated that lower levels of capital spending over the next few years are not expected to delay major project timing nor have a material effect on its volume outlook.

If ExxonMobil can lower its operating and reserve replacement costs so that it can maintain its reserves and production while generating consistent free cash flow then its outlook could be changed to stable. If the company is not able to realign its cost structure to the prevailing commodity price environment, if its cash flow based leverage metrics deteriorate more than anticipated or if its reserve replacement and production profile appear poised to move into decline over the medium term then the ratings could be downgraded.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry published in April 2014. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Exxon Mobil Corporation is headquartered in Irving, Texas and is the world's largest publicly traded integrated oil & gas company by market capitalization.

..Issuer: Exxon Mobil Corporation

Affirmations:

.... Issuer Rating, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debentures, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Affirmed (P)Aaa

..Issuer: Exxon Mobil Corporation

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

..Issuer: Exxon Capital Corp.

Affirmations:

....Senior Unsecured Shelf (Local Currency), Affirmed (P)Aaa

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Exxon Capital Corp.

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

..Issuer: XTO Energy, Inc.

Affirmations:

.... Issuer Rating, Affirmed Aaa

....Pre. Shelf, Affirmed (P)Aa2

....Pref. Shelf Non-Cumulative, Affirmed (P)Aa2

....Senior Subordinate Shelf, Affirmed (P)Aa1

....Subordinate Shelf, Affirmed (P)Aa1

....Senior Unsec. Shelf, Affirmed (P)Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debentures, Affirmed Aaa

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: XTO Energy, Inc.

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

Affirmations:

..Issuer: Mobil Corporation

.... Issuer Rating, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Aaa

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Mobil Corporation

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

..Issuer: California Municipal Finance Authority

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: California Pollution Control Financing Auth.

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: East Baton Rouge (Parish of) LA

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: East Baton Rouge (Parish of) LA, Ind Dev Bd

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

..Issuer: Gloucester (Cnty of) NJ, Poll Ctrl Fin Auth

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Gulf Coast Industrial Development Authority

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Gulf Coast Waste Disposal Authority, TX

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Harris County Industrial Dev Corp, TX

....Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Joliet Regional Port District, IL

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

..Issuer: Lincoln (County of) WY

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

..Issuer: Lower Neches Valley Auth. TX, I.D.C.

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Lower Neches Valley Authority, TX

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Mobile (County of) AL

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: New Jersey Economic Development Authority

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

..Issuer: Rhode Island Industrial Facilities Corp.

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Saint Bernard (Parish of) LA

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Sublette (County of) WY

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

..Issuer: Union (Cnty of) NJ, Poll. Control Fin. Auth.

.... Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

.... Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Union (County of) NJ, Ind Poll Ctrl Fin Auth

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Valdez (City of) AK

.... Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

.... Revenue Bonds, Affirmed P-1

.... Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

..Issuer: Will (County of) IL

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed Aaa

....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed VMIG 1

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Peter Speer
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Steven Wood
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's affirms ExxonMobil's Aaa rating, outlook changed to negative
No Related Data.
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