BFSR outlook changed to negative from stable
London, 23 October 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed Getin Noble Bank S.A.'s
Ba2/Not-Prime long- and short-term deposit ratings
and maintained the negative outlook. At the same time, the
rating agency affirmed the bank's standalone bank financial strength
rating (BFSR) of D-, which is equivalent to a baseline credit
assessment (BCA) of ba3, and changed its outlook to negative from
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- CHANGE OF OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE ON THE BFSR
Moody's says that the change in outlook to negative on the standalone
D- BFSR is the result of Getin Noble Bank's persistent asset
quality and profitability challenges against the backdrop of the increasing
external risks that pose challenges to Poland's growth expectations.
Moody's says that Poland maintains a resilient economic performance
and predictable policy framework. However, the rating agency
notes that the expected economic slowdown in H2 2014 reflects an unsettled
recovery and a weak business sentiment and inflation outlook across the
EU. Poland's trade linkages with core EU countries are significant,
as are the spill-over risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Therefore, the National Bank of Poland recently cut its interest
rates in response to these economic challenges.
In this context, Moody's believes that Getin Noble Bank will
face increasing financial challenges over the 12-18 month outlook
period.
In H1 2014, Getin Noble Bank had a level of problem loans that amounted
to 13.2% of gross loans, which is significantly higher
than the average for the Polish banking system of 7.5%.
This ratio deteriorated when compared to 12.5% in Q1 2014,
bringing it back to the year-end 2013 level. Moody's
notes that the increase of problem loans was significant in Q2 2014 considering
that the bank sold about PLN450 million (EUR108 million) of problem loans
in the same period. The volume of problem loans grew by 6%
in Q2 2014, and the bank sold a similar percentage of problem loans
during the same period. The bank's intention to reduce the
overall volume of these problem loans through sales will be challenged
by tax and legal impediments with respect to problem loans in the mortgage
segment.
In Moody's opinion, Getin Noble Bank continues to carry a
significant balance sheet risk related to the size of problem loans measured
against reserves and capital. Gross problem loans as a percentage
of loan loss reserves and shareholder's equity reached an historical
high of 75.6% in H1 2014, and a level that is weaker
than similarly rated international peers.
Getin Noble Bank's profitability has shown some improvement in H1
2014, and Moody's indicates that net profit could increase
by about 20% year-on-year at the end of 2014.
However, in Moody's view, the bank's capacity
to achieve its 2015 profitability targets, outlined in its "Getin
UP" strategy published in March 2013, will be negatively affected,
among other things, by the recent interest rates cut, whose
implications will become more visible in Q4 2014. These targets
include an annual net income of about PLN1 billion by year-end
2015, more than double compared to the PLN400 million reported at
year-end 2013. In addition, the bank's flat
loan book in H1 2014 compares unfavourably with the 5.1%
average growth in the Polish banking system. As a result,
the bank's ability to build up its core capital base may be limited.
--- DEPOSIT RATINGS AFFIRMED (OUTLOOK NEGATIVE)
Moody's affirmation of Getin Noble Bank's Ba2/Not-Prime
long- and short-term deposit ratings reflects the rating
agency's current view on the probability of systemic support based
on the bank's nationwide retail network presence and more importantly
Moody's estimated 5.5% market share in loans and 6.2%
share in deposits for the bank at H1 2014.
However, the negative outlook on Getin Noble Bank's long-term
deposit ratings reflects the likely negative implications for investors
of a pending Polish resolution and bail-in regime. The recent
adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive in the EU is the
main force behind this likely change, which aims to shift the cost
of bank failure from taxpayers to shareholders and unsecured creditors.
Ultimately, because of these regulatory developments, Moody's
government support assumptions for Polish banks (including Getin Noble
Bank) will likely decline during the outlook period.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Upward rating pressure is unlikely given the current negative outlook.
However, upward pressure on Getin Noble Bank's ratings could
result from significant improvements in asset quality, and increasing
provisioning coverage and/or equity. In addition, a sustained
reduction of the sizeable foreign-currency-denominated mortgage
loan book would also contribute to a reduction of the associated credit
and funding risks.
Downward pressure could be exerted on Getin Noble Bank's ratings
as a result of any further deterioration in asset quality, a deterioration
in the bank's profitability and/or erosion of the bank's core
capital base, and a widening of the bank's currency mismatches.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Banks published
in July 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Simone Zampa
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Yves J Lemay
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's affirms Getin Noble Bank's deposit ratings at Ba2; maintains negative outlook