Ratings of Investec plc also affirmed with negative outlook
London, 30 September 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the Baa3/Prime-3 debt
and deposit ratings of UK-based Investec Bank Plc (Investec Bank).
Moody's has also affirmed the rating of Investec Bank's parent
company, Investec plc, at Ba1, also based in the UK.
The outlook on the ratings remains negative and the bank's baseline
credit assessment (BCA) is unchanged at baa3.
The affirmation of Investec Bank's investment grade ratings reflects
Moody's expectation that the bank will continue to pursue a strategy
of risk reduction within the business, by containing legacy risks
(primarily related to the commercial real estate sector) in the balance
sheet, by limiting risk appetite with new lending and shifting the
bank's sources of income towards lower risk and more stable revenue
streams primarily in the wealth and asset management segments.
The current rating also incorporates the bank's (1) relatively high
levels of regulatory capital and solid leverage ratio as compared to peers;
and (2) sound liquidity buffers and overall positive evolution of its
funding profile. Any deviation from this path of risk reduction
or equally, any deterioration in capital or liquidity buffers,
could lead to negative pressure on the rating.
The negative outlook on Investec Bank's ratings reflects the still
significant downside risk arising from (1) the bank's exposure to
commercial and residential real estate in the UK and Ireland; and
(2) relatively low profitability metrics limiting its ability to generate
capital organically. Moody's outlook also reflects our concern
regarding the execution risk related to the integration of recent acquisitions
in support of its wealth and investment business as well as the Bank's
strategy realignment in Australia. The Bank's streamlining
of its Australian business and reorientation towards less volatile sources
of revenue is viewed positively, provided successful execution.
Our rating affirmation of the parent company, Investec plc,
reflects the structural subordination of the parent company; and
remaining exposure to subprime residential mortgages from the legacy portfolio
of its subsidiary, Kensington Group plc. This risk is partially
offset by the relatively stable earnings of Investec Asset Management,
which are expected to provide a buffer against future losses from the
Kensington portfolio.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--POSITIVE EVOLUTION OF BUSINESS MODEL SHOULD GENERATE MORE
STABLE EARNINGS IF EXECUTION RISKS CAN BE MANAGED
Moody's believes that Investec Bank's reshaped business model
with greater focus on activities that generate more stable fee and commission
income is positive for bondholders since it provides a diversification
and, due to the lower expected volatility of this earnings source,
a better 'shock absorber' against potential losses arising
from its legacy CRE portfolio. For the year ended March 2013,
net fee and commission income increased by a significant 23% to
GBP386 million from GBP313 million at the end of March 2012 as the bank
benefited from higher average funds under management in its wealth and
investment business due to the acquisitions of Williams de Broë and
the NCB Group. Overall, pre-tax profit increased by
52% during the year ended March 2013 to GBP57 million. The
increase was also driven by lower impairment charges and an increase in
net interest income by 12% to GBP 288 million in the year ended
March 2013 from GBP 258 million in the year ended March 2012, largely
due to a decline in the cost of funding and a larger loan book.
However, Moody's considers that the size of Investec Bank's
principal investments portfolio, the risk embedded in its loan book
and the continued focus on opportunistic transactions exposes the bank
to volatility in earnings. Despite growth in its wealth and investment
business, which has been achieved through recent acquisitions,
the bank still faces execution risk in its objective to bring down costs
to an appropriate level, as part of its wider strategic pursuit
to improve profitability.
--ASSET QUALITY WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BUT DOWNSIDE RISK REMAINS
IN CREDIT PORTFOLIO
Moody's expects impairment charges to continue to decline,
following a reduction in the bank's exposure to commercial and residential
real estate planning and development during the year. This decline
in impairment charges is reflective of a trend seen across UK lending
institutions as the UK economic environment improves. According
to Moody's calculations, Investec Bank's problem loan
ratio declined to 4.63% at the end of March 2013 from 4.67%
at the end of March 2012. The continuing low interest rate environment
clearly supports this trend, but any notable deviation from this
improving trend is likely to lead to pressure on the rating.
A significant proportion of the bank's gross defaults continue to
emanate from Investec Bank's portfolios of loans collateralised
by property. Moody's believes that UK banks with significant
commercial real estate (CRE) exposures still face material downside risk.
In Investec Bank's case, this risk is dampened by the fact
that a large proportion of collateral properties are located in regions
that have experienced a relatively limited decline in property prices.
Conversely, Investec Bank's relatively smaller balance sheet,
versus its larger peers, and less granular portfolio, together
with its more opportunistic strategy which is shifting the bank's
focus towards other assets, exposes the bank to greater volatility
from the performance and valuation of these concentrated risks.
--CAPITAL LEVELS HELP MITIGATE POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISKS
Under Moody's stress scenario, Investec Bank would have sufficient
capital to remain above minimum regulatory requirements. Such capital
levels have allowed the bank buffers to absorb interim pressure within
its portfolio, allowing time to work through and maximise value
of recovery from defaults within its portfolio. The bank's Tier
1 ratio remained strong at 11.1% at the end of March 2013,
despite declining from 11.5% in YE03/2012 due to an increase
in risk-weighted assets on the back of growth in corporate lending
and operational risk. Investec Bank uses the standardised approach
for Pillar 1 credit risk and operational risk capital requirements and
therefore its capital ratios are not directly comparable with firms using
internal models.
STRONG LIQUIDITY BUFFERS REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR FUNDING SHOCKS
Moody's believes that Investec Bank's liquidity management
is strong and it maintains a prudent funding profile given the nature
of its business model. As of 31 March 2013, the bank held
a liquidity buffer of GBP4.5bn, or around 21% of total
liabilities and equity. This liquidity is held in the form of cash
balances with the central bank or in highly rated securities and unencumbered
assets eligible to be pledged with the central bank to raise liquidity.
The banks' funding gap, or loan-to-deposit ratio,
has improved to 84% as of March 2013, which compares favourably
versus a UK rated peer average of 95% (December 2012). Moody's
also notes that the bank increased its customer deposits to GBP11.4
billion as of March 2013 from GBP11.1 billion as of March 2012.
Given the relatively larger average customer balance of Investec Bank's
private banking deposits, the bank's retail funding is less
granular as compared with other large UK retail banks.
What Could Move the Rating -- Up
Positive ratings pressure on the ratings is unlikely to materialise at
this stage. However, pressure towards a stabilisation of
the outlook or upwards rating pressure could arise from a combination
of the following factors: a sustained increase in the proportion
of stable earnings sources which diversify the bank's exposure to weaknesses
in the UK commercial property markets; significant and sustainable
improvement in Investec Bank 's profitability and efficiency ratios;
material shift in its lending profile towards more diverse, lower
risk credits as well as an increase in the proportion of stickier,
longer-term customer deposits.
What Could Move the Rating -- Down
Investec Bank plc's standalone and deposit ratings would experience negative
pressure from a number of factors, particularly a deviation from
the improving trend in Investec Bank's asset quality, reflected
in a significant increase in the bank's current problem loan ratio
of 4.63%. The rating would likely come under pressure
in the event Investec Bank deviates from its present strategy of reducing
risk and diversifying its revenue base towards lower risk businesses.
Other areas of concern include lending growth which outpaces customer
deposit growth, further deterioration in the bank's cost-income
ratio beyond its reported current level of 75.3% or a deterioration
of its present adequate level of capitalisation (as of March 2013 reported
Tier 1 ratio was 11.1%, down from 11.5%
as of March 2012).
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
The following ratings were affirmed:
INVESTEC BANK PLC
- Baseline credit assessment (BCA) at baa3 and the Bank Financial
Strength Rating (BFSR) at D+
- Negative outlook of the BCA and stable outlook of the BFSR,
given it can either map into a BCA of baa3 or ba1
- Short-term local-currency and foreign-currency
deposit ratings; Commercial Paper foreign-currency rating
and Deposit Note foreign-currency program at Prime-3
- Long-term local-currency and foreign-currency
deposit rating at Baa3 and the Negative outlook
- Subordinate Long-term local-currency rating at
Ba1 and the Negative outlook
INVESTEC PLC
- Long-term and short-term foreign-currency
issuer rating at Ba1 and Not Prime respectively
- Negative outlook on the Long-term foreign-currency
issuer rating
INVESTEC TIER 1 (UK) LP
- Long-term Pref. Stock Non-cumulative foreign-currency
BACKED by Investec plc at B1 (hyb) and the Negative outlook
INVESTEC FINANCE PLC (all ratings BACKED by Investec Bank plc)
- Senior unsecured local-currency MTN program at (P)Baa3
- Subordinate local-currency MTN program at (P)Ba1
- Junior subordinate local-currency MTN at (P)Ba2
- Subordinate local-currency rating at Ba1 and the Negative
outlook
- Junior subordinate local-currency rating at Ba2(hyb) and
the Negative outlook
- Short-term local-currency debt rating and foreign-currency
at (P)Prime-3
- Commercial Paper foreign-currency rating at Prime-3
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published
in May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Carlos Suarez Duarte
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Johannes Felix Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's affirms Investec Bank's Baa3/P-3 rating, outlook remains negative