Standalone credit assessment lowered to D+/baa3; outlook stable
Frankfurt am Main, January 17, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed KfW IPEX Bank GmbH's
Aa3 long-term deposit ratings and at the same time, downgraded
the bank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to D+,
equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of baa3, from C-/baa1.
The outlook on the standalone BFSR is stable, and the outlook on
the deposit ratings remains negative. Additionally, Moody's
affirmed KfW IPEX's Prime-1 short-term ratings.
The downgrade of the standalone BFSR follows Moody's assessment
that KfW IPEX's resilience to the challenging conditions in the
shipping sector may weaken as the tough trading conditions for ocean carriers
and other maritime segments exert growing pressure on the bank's
asset quality. Moody's assessment is based on its stress
tests of the bank's earnings, assets and capital, which
take account of the risks posed in adverse scenarios in the context of
the bank's sector concentration to ship finance.
The affirmation of KfW IPEX's Aa3/Prime-1 short and long-term
deposit ratings reflects Moody's view that Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau
(KfW, rated Aaa negative) will continue to provide support to the
bank -- as its 100% shareholder --
in particular through the existing funding arrangement that allows KfW
IPEX to fully fund its business intra-group.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- STANDALONE CREDIT ASSESSMENT
The lowering of KfW IPEX's standalone financial strength rating
to D+/baa3 reflects a combination of external and bank-specific
factors, including (1) highly challenging market conditions and
rising bankruptcies in the shipping sector, implying prospects of
rising risk charges on the bank's EUR6 billion exposure to the maritime
industry; (2) earnings pressure in the context of low growth and
strong competition in several of KfW IPEX's key areas of operation;
and (3) the bank's susceptibility to market shocks or macroeconomic
stress, as its sound capitalisation only partly mitigates the risk
to capital in Moody's adverse scenario.
The bank's current capitalisation, based on its Tier 1 ratio
of 13.9% as per unaudited September 2012 financials and
available reserves is satisfactory albeit of low quality, given
its roughly 30% hybrid content. Although Moody's fully
recognises hybrid capital in its scenario analysis, it considers
that KfW IPEX's current capital levels provide only a modest buffer
to absorb potential losses under Moody's adverse scenario.
This is partly due to KfW IPEX having more sizeable higher-risk
exposures -- compared with those of its major peers --
to leveraged funds that finance ships but do not allow for recourse to
shipping companies. As such, because financing structures
rely on existing capital from (mostly retail) investors with no strategic
interest and limited additional risk appetite, ship financiers lending
to such funds are experiencing above-average asset-quality
deterioration. In addition, KfW IPEX's dependence on
market funds, albeit securely provided through KfW at market rates,
and its modest risk-adjusted earnings power are more in line with
the D+ BFSR category.
--- DEPOSIT RATINGS
The affirmation of KfW IPEX's Aa3 deposit ratings reflects the offsetting
effect of Moody's very high assumptions of parental support from
KfW, resulting in six notches of rating uplift from the baa3 standalone
credit assessment (instead of four notches previously).
This captures Moody's view that (1) KfW will continue to meet all funding
requirements of its subsidiary under the existing service-level
agreement; (2) KfW will support KfW IPEX with capital, as and
when required; (3) the subsidiary's commercial lending business
will remain important for the group (KfW generates considerable additional
earnings on its respective intra-group lending activities);
and (4) there is a high likelihood that KfW IPEX will remain a member
of the KfW group, in the longer term. The latter reflects
Moody's view that the KfW group would find it difficult to divest
KfW IPEX's franchise in the persistently adverse conditions for
bank asset sales, in the unlikely event that political pressure
should arise to divest of the subsidiary.
Moody's support assessment reflects KfW IPEX's 100% ownership by
KfW, its name identity with the parent as well as the ample financial
resources of KfW group.
RATIONALE FOR (MULTIPLE) OUTLOOKS
The stable outlook on the D+/baa3 standalone credit assessment reflects
Moody's assessment that KfW IPEX's loss-absorption
capacity includes a buffer -- as represented by its recurring
earnings power and capital -- large enough to warrant an
investment-grade standalone rating level at this point in the cycle.
This buffer allows KfW IPEX to occasionally absorb elevated losses that
may well exceed the loss-absorption power of its income statement,
without unduly compromising its stability.
The negative outlook on the Aa3 deposit rating reflects the negative outlook
on the Aaa long-term debt rating of KfW which in turn reflects
the negative outlook on Germany (Aaa, negative). KfW's
ratings are based on an unconditional, irrevocable guarantee by
the German government.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP / DOWN
An upgrade of the BFSR would be subject to (1) KfW IPEX de-risking
its balance sheet and reducing its concentration on ship finance;
and (2) a sustainable recovery of the shipping sector.
An upgrade of the Aa3 long-term ratings would be subject to Moody's
raising the standalone credit assessment by several notches at unchanged
assumptions for support, which is not expected in the foreseeable
future.
A downgrade of the BFSR, albeit unlikely, could be triggered
by (1) a materially weakening operating environment and an erosion of
KfW IPEX's revenues and earnings; combined with (2) credit
losses materially above current expectations and a resulting weakening
of its capital levels.
A downgrade of the Aa3 long-term deposit ratings could be triggered
by (1) a downgrade of the D+ BFSR, (2) weakening prospects
of future support; or (3) a downgrade of KfW's Aaa debt ratings.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated
Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Katharina Barten
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Carola Schuler
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's affirms KfW IPEX's Aa3/P-1 ratings; outlook remains negative