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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Liberty Mutual's ratings and rates senior notes Baa2; outlook stable

01 Nov 2013

$400 million reopened senior note offering. Approximately $6.0 billion in total outstanding debt and hybrid securities.

New York, November 01, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Baa2 senior debt rating of Liberty Mutual Group Inc. (LMGI) and the A2 insurance financial strength (IFS) ratings of its primary property and casualty insurance subsidiaries. In addition, Moody's has assigned Baa2 ratings to $400 million of 10-year senior notes being issued by LMGI through a reopening of its June 2013 issuance. Proceeds of the reopening are expected to be used to finance recent debt repurchases and for general corporate purposes. The ratings outlook for Liberty Mutual is stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

According to Moody's lead analyst Paul Bauer, "The affirmation of Liberty Mutual's ratings is based on the company's excellent franchise in the personal lines insurance sector, growing international presence, and gradually improving, though still somewhat weak, commercial lines performance."

Moody's said Liberty Mutual's ratings are supported by the group's solid market position in both commercial and personal lines insurance as the third-largest property & casualty (P&C) insurance group in the US, its significant international presence as the second largest US-based P&C insurer with international operations, the breadth of its product and distribution platforms and the group's overall good asset quality.

These strengths are tempered by the insurance group's below-average underwriting profitability in its commercial lines segment relative to peers, by its somewhat elevated operational and financial leverage relative to tangible capital, by exposures to losses from natural and man-made catastrophes, and the potential for adverse reserve development on its long-tail casualty lines. Another credit concern is the parent company's access to debt-only capital, which Moody's believes constrains financial flexibility in the capital-intensive and often volatile property and casualty insurance sector.

LMGI's Baa2 rating for senior unsecured debt reflects its structural subordination to Liberty Mutual Insurance Company (LMIC), as well as the benefit of free cash flows generated by Liberty Corporate Services (LCS). LCS's fee and commission-based net cash flows are available to LMGI without regulatory restriction and provide coverage of the holding company's debt service costs independent of the more tightly regulated dividend flows from LMIC. Further, as the group's debt funding continues to shift over time toward greater reliance on debt issued from LMGI rather than LMIC, surplus note interest coverage should continue to improve, progressively easing constraints on dividend capacity from LMIC up to the debt-issuing parent company, LMGI. Moody's expects the company's adjusted financial leverage to increase modestly to about 32% from 31% as of September 30, 2013 following completion of the senior note offering. In addition, coverage metrics will improve incrementally given the lower cost of the new debt issuance in comparison to the recently repurchased and maturing debt.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade of Liberty Mutual's ratings include: 1) sustained strong earnings and internal capital generation; 2) further improvement in adjusted financial leverage (below 25%, and below 30% relative to tangible capital); and 3) gross underwriting leverage consistently below 5x (adjusted for certain reinsurance balances). Conversely, factors that could lead to a downgrade include: 1) consolidated gross underwriting leverage above 6.5x (adjusted for certain reinsurance balances); 2) adjusted financial leverage above 35% (or 45%, relative to tangible capital given significant acquisition-related goodwill intangibles); 3) pre-tax operating returns on capital averaging below 5%; and 4) a decline in policyholders' equity capitalization by more than 10% as a result of operating or realized investment losses.

The following ratings have been affirmed with stable outlooks:

- Liberty Mutual Group Inc.: senior unsecured debt at Baa2; junior subordinated debt at Baa3; rating at Prime-2 for commercial paper (guaranteed by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company);

- Liberty Mutual Insurance Company: insurance financial strength at A2; surplus notes at Baa2; long-term issuer credit rating at Baa1;

- Ohio Casualty Corporation: senior unsecured debt at Baa2;

Insurance financial strength ratings at A2 for other members of the Liberty Mutual and affiliated intercompany pool, including the following:

- American Economy Insurance Company;

- American Fire & Casualty Company;

- American States Preferred Insurance Company;

- American States Insurance Company;

- Employers Insurance of Wausau;

- The First Liberty Insurance Corporation;

- First National Insurance Company of America;

- General Insurance Company of America;

- Insurance Company of Illinois;

- Liberty Insurance Corporation;

- Liberty Insurance Underwriters, Inc.;

- Liberty Mutual Fire Insurance Company

- Liberty Mutual Insurance Company;

- Liberty Surplus Insurance Corporation;

- LM Insurance Corporation;

- The Ohio Casualty Insurance Company;

- Ohio Security Insurance Company;

- Safeco Insurance Company of America;

- Safeco Insurance Company of Illinois;

- Safeco National Insurance Company;

- Wausau Business Insurance Company;

- Wausau General Insurance Company;

- Wausau Underwriters Insurance Company; and

- West American Insurance Company.

Based in Boston, Massachusetts, Liberty Mutual Group is a diversified international group of insurance companies. The group provides a wide range of insurance products and services in the US, and internationally, including in Europe and the Lloyd's market, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region. For the first nine months 2013, Liberty Mutual Group had revenue of $29 billion and net income of $1.2 billion. As of September 30, 2013, the company reported consolidated assets of $122 billion and total equity of $18 billion.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Global Rating Methodology for Property and Casualty Insurers published in May 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Moody's insurance financial strength ratings are opinions of the ability of insurance companies to pay senior policyholder claims and obligations. For more information, visit our website at www.moodys.com/insurance.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Paul Bauer
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Robert Riegel
MD - Insurance
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's affirms Liberty Mutual's ratings and rates senior notes Baa2; outlook stable
No Related Data.
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MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

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