Tokyo, December 03, 2020 -- Moody's Japan K.K. has affirmed Mitsui Fudosan Co.,
Ltd.'s A2 issuer rating, A2 senior unsecured rating
and (P)A2 senior unsecured shelf registration.
At the same time, Moody's has changed the outlook to negative from
stable.
"The change in outlook to negative reflects Mitsui Fudosan's
rising leverage due to its debt-funded large-scale development
projects, and the uncertainty over its ability to sustainably reverse
the rising trend in financial leverage," says Ryohei Nishio,
a Moody's Analyst.
"At the same time, the affirmation of Mitsui Fudosan's
A2 rating reflects its solid market position as Japan's largest integrated
real estate company with a diversified portfolio of prime properties,
as well as the financial flexibility it enjoys from its cash holdings,
committed credit facilities and largely unencumbered asset base,"
adds Nishio.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's expects Mitsui Fudosan's leverage will remain elevated
as a result of multiple large ongoing development projects in its leasing
segment. Moody's estimates Mitsui Fudosan will require capital
spending of several hundred billion yen annually in the next 12-18
months as it continues to grow its portfolio of mixed-use leasing
properties. The company plans to accelerate its asset recycling
-- including the impending divestment of an office property for JPY170
billion - to limit further debt increases and control its balance
sheet scale. However, the company's debt will remain
elevated at the current level of JPY3.8 trillion or above,
up from JPY3.5 trillion as of March 2020 and JPY2.9 trillion
as of March 2019, an increase at a much faster pace than Moody's
previous expectation.
Mitsui Fudosan has undertaken an intensive investment cycle in the last
few years, with large-scale development projects in both
Japan and overseas. Consequently, the company's gearing
- as measured by debt/gross assets -- increased to 48%
as of September 2020, up from 42% as of March 2019,
and well above Moody's downgrade trigger of 45%.
Moreover, Moody's expects net debt/EBITDA to rise above 11x
in the fiscal year ended March 2021 (fiscal 2020) due to pandemic-driven
earnings pressure in its retail property and car park leasing businesses.
Although earnings should improve on the economic recovery, Moody's
expects leverage will remain high at 8.5x or above through fiscal
2022, weaker than the 8.2x reported for fiscal 2019.
Absent planned debt reduction, there is material uncertainty over
the company's ability to meaningfully deleverage over the next 12-18
months.
Mitsui Fudosan's leverage is increasingly high relative to similarly-rated
peers such as Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd. (A2 stable)
and The Hongkong Land Company, Limited (A2 stable), in terms
of both debt/gross assets and net debt/EBITDA.
Rating pressure is also building from Mitsui Fudosan's high risk
appetite, as indicated by its planned acquisition of Tokyo Dome
Corporation for over JPY100 billion with a view to undertaking urban redevelopment.
Mitsui Fudosan's plan to expand its overseas operations also raises
business risks. In addition, the company's investment
property sales business -- which has been growing in recent years
-- also brings inherent volatility due to its exposure to market
conditions and lack of meaningful downside protection.
At the same time, Moody's expect the company's strong
footprint in leasing and property management will continue to support
its solid cash flow generation and strong liquidity over the next 12-18
months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Give the negative outlook, an upgrade is unlikely in the next 12-18
months. However, Moody's could change the outlook back to
stable if Mitsui Fudosan meaningfully lowers its debt to restore stronger
leverage metrics, such as net debt/EBITDA sustained below 8x,
and debt/gross assets below 45%.
Moody's could downgrade Mitsui Fudosan's ratings if the company fails
to restore its leverage or earnings from leasing and property sales deteriorate.
Metrics that could lead to a downgrade include net debt/EBITDA above 8x
or debt/gross assets above 45%. An increased level of business
risk, due to growing exposure to the property sales segment or overseas
projects, would also result in a downgrade.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was REITs and Other Commercial
Real Estate Firms (Japanese) published in September 2018 and available
at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1097765.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo,
is Japan's largest real estate company by sales and total assets.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
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Ryohei Nishio
Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Japan K.K.
Atago Green Hills Mori Tower 20fl
2-5-1 Atago, Minato-ku
Tokyo 105-6220
Japan
JOURNALISTS: 81 3 5408 4110
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Mihoko Manabe
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 81 3 5408 4110
Client Service: 81 3 5408 4100
Releasing Office:
Moody's Japan K.K.
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