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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms NagaCorp's B1 ratings; outlook changed to negative

07 Apr 2020

Singapore, April 07, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the B1 corporate family rating of NagaCorp Ltd.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the B1 senior unsecured rating of the company's US dollar bonds. The bonds are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by the major operating subsidiaries of NagaCorp.

The outlook on all ratings is changed to negative from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these developments are unprecedented. The gaming sector has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.

More specifically, the expected weakening in NagaCorp's credit profile, including its exposure to Cambodia, have left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions and the company remains vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread.

Today's action reflects the impact on NagaCorp of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

Moody's expects the temporary suspension of casinos at NagaWorld from 1 April 2020, as announced by the company[1], will have a material impact on NagaCorp's earnings. Gaming revenue accounted for over 95% of revenue and EBITDA in 2019.

"The change in outlook to negative reflects our expectation that NagaCorp's earnings and credit metrics will weaken in 2020 with the extent and pace of any subsequent recovery remaining uncertain for now," says Jacintha Poh, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"Nonetheless, the rating affirmation reflects NagaCorp's large leverage buffer to withstand the earnings decline and our expectation that the company will scale back dividend payments and expansionary capital spending to preserve liquidity," adds Poh.

As of 31 March 2020, NagaCorp had cash and deposits of around $473 million. Based on Moody's assumption that the company will generate around $600 million of operating cash flows over the next 18 months, it will have sufficient liquidity to cover estimated dividend payouts of around $500 million, maintenance capital spending of around $100 million and repay its $300 million senior unsecured notes maturing in May 2021.

In terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, Moody's has also considered the following.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.

NagaCorp's gaming business is also exposed to elevated social risks, particularly around evolving demographic and societal trends that may drive a change in demand away from traditional casino-style gaming. These risks are somewhat mitigated by the company's ability to adjust capacity to suit market demand because there are no restrictions under its casino license on operating hours or the number of gaming tables and machines.

Moody's has also considered governance risk around the controlling shareholder's concentrated ownership of NagaCorp. However, this risk is partially balanced by the oversight exercised through the board, which for the majority consists of independent directors, and the demonstration of support by the controlling shareholder, who has funded the company's expansion projects by injecting equity.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming Industry published in December 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1099757. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative ratings outlook, an upgrade is unlikely over the next 12-18 months. Nonetheless, the outlook could return to stable if the casinos at NagaWorld reopen, supporting a recovery of NagaCorp's earnings and credit metrics.

Moody's could downgrade NagaCorp's ratings if (1) Cambodia's sovereign rating is downgraded; (2) the operating environment deteriorates, resulting in protracted weakness in operating cash flow generation; (3) the company fails to maintain its 100% ownership of Ariston Sdn. Bhd, which holds its Cambodian casino license, and 100% ownership of NagaWorld; (4) the company increases its debt leverage, capital spending or shareholder returns, such that adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeds 2.5x and adjusted retained cash flow/debt falls below 20% over the next 12-18 months; and (5) the company has insufficient cash to cover its short-term debt obligations.

NagaCorp Ltd. was incorporated in the Cayman Islands in 2003 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006. The company owns and manages NagaWorld, the largest integrated casino and hotel complex in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. NagaCorp was founded by Tan Sri Dr. Chen Lip Keong, the company's chief executive officer and largest shareholder with an approximate 70% stake as of 31 March 2020.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating outcome announced and described above.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

REFERENCES/CITATIONS

[1] NagaCorp Ltd. voluntary annoucement 01-Apr-2020

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Jacintha Poh
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Ian Lewis
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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