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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms NagaCorp's B1 ratings; outlook remains negative

07 Jun 2021

Singapore, June 07, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the B1 corporate family rating of NagaCorp Ltd.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the B1 senior unsecured rating of the company's US dollar bonds. The bonds are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by the major operating subsidiaries of NagaCorp.

The outlook on all ratings remains negative.

"The rating affirmation reflects our expectation that NagaCorp's tap issuance will provide the company with sufficient liquidity to fund its cash burn over the next 18-24 months, should its casino operations remain suspended. While leverage will stay weak in 2021, we expect it will recover to within the company's B1 rating parameters in 2022 as casino operations gradually resumes in the second half of 2021," says Jacintha Poh, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"The negative outlook reflects our expectation that NagaCorp's earnings and credit metrics will stay weak in 2021 with the extent and pace of recovery remaining uncertain for now," adds Poh.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The voluntary temporary suspension of NagaCorp's casino operations since 2 March 2021, as announced by the company [1], will have a significant impact on its earnings in 2021. Gaming revenue accounted for more than 95% of NagaCorp's revenue and EBITDA in 2019 and 2020.

Moody's expects NagaCorp's revenue to be weaker in 2021 than in 2020, which will be equivalent to around 40% of its 2019 revenue before the coronavirus pandemic, even if the current suspension does not exceed three and a half months as in the previous year. This is because the company's operating performance in the first quarter of 2020 was not significantly affected by the pandemic.

Although the pandemic will likely delay NagaCorp's earnings recovery to 2022, Moody's expects the company to have sufficient liquidity to withstand its cash burn, which includes operating expenses, interest payments and maintenance capital spending. NagaCorp can also delay planned spending for the construction of an integrated casino and hotel complex in Vladivostok, Russia, and another integrated casino and hotel complex (Naga 3) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, with no financial penalties.

As of 31 December 2020, NagaCorp had cash and deposits of $452 million. After the redemption of its $300 million senior unsecured notes at maturity in May 2021, the payment of its $82 million declared dividend in July 2021 and the proposed tap issuance, Moody's expects the company to have sufficient liquidity to cover 18-24 months of cash burn if its casino operations remain suspended. Excluding the tap issuance, liquidity will be sufficient for the next 6-9 months.

NagaCorp's leverage, as measured by debt/EBITDA, will weaken to 2.7x in 2021 from 2.6x in 2020, driven by high debt levels because of the tap issuance and lower earnings. Nonetheless, Moody's forecasts leverage will recover to around 1.0x in 2022 if the company's casino operations are not suspended in that year.

In terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks, NagaCorp is exposed to high social risks in terms of the pandemic, which has resulted in interruptions in its gaming operations; and evolving demographic and societal trends, which may drive a change in demand away from traditional casino-style gaming.

Beyond the temporary downturn caused by the pandemic, Moody's expects the social risks relating to evolving demographic and societal trends to be mitigated by the company's ability to adjust capacity to meet market demand because there are no restrictions under its casino license on operating hours or the number of gaming tables and machines.

Moody's has also considered the governance risk surrounding the controlling shareholder's concentrated ownership of NagaCorp. However, the risk is partially tempered by the oversight exercised through the board consisting of majority independent directors, and the track record of support by the controlling shareholder, who has funded the company's expansion by injecting equity.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative ratings outlook, an upgrade is unlikely over the next 12-18 months. Nonetheless, the outlook could return to stable if NagaCorp's casino operations resume, supporting a recovery of its earnings and credit metrics.

Moody's could downgrade NagaCorp's ratings if Cambodia's sovereign rating is downgraded; the operating environment deteriorates, resulting in protracted weakness in operating cash flow; the company fails to maintain its 100% ownership of Ariston Sdn. Bhd, which holds its Cambodian casino license, and 100% ownership of NagaWorld; or the company has insufficient cash to cover its cash burn and short-term debt obligations.

Credit metrics indicative of a downgrade include adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeding 2.5x and adjusted retained cash flow/debt falling below 20% over the next 12-18 months.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming Methodology published in October 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1244702. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

NagaCorp Ltd. was incorporated in the Cayman Islands in 2003 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006. The company owns and manages NagaWorld, the largest integrated casino and hotel complex in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. NagaCorp was founded by Tan Sri Dr. Chen Lip Keong, the company's chief executive officer and largest shareholder with an approximate 67% stake as of 31 December 2020.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1263068.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

REFERENCES/CITATIONS

[1] Company's announcement: https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/nagacorp/announcement/a210301a.pdf, 01-Mar-2021

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Jacintha Poh
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Vikas Halan
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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