London, 04 September 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) today affirmed the ratings of Novae
Group plc (Baa3 senior unsecured, Ba1 subordinated) and Lloyd's
Syndicate 2007 (A2 IFSR). The rating outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of Syndicate 2007's A2 insurance financial strength
rating (IFSR) reflects its franchise as a leader within its core business
areas in the Lloyd's of London (Lloyd's) market, very good
business and geographic diversification, and the conservative investment
policy of Novae Group plc ("Novae" or the "Group")
which conducts its underwriting business via Syndicate 2007. This
is offset by the potential volatility of the syndicate's book as a specialty
business with significant catastrophe exposure, relatively high
gross underwriting leverage, and a difficult trading environment.
The rating further reflects the structural and operational benefits the
syndicate derives from operating within Lloyd's, and includes,
in particular, the benefit of Lloyd's central resources in terms
of the overall A2 IFSR.
Syndicate 2007's business profile is marked by its good franchise
and lead capacity in its core business areas, and very good business
and geographic diversification. In line with its strategy,
Novae's insurance segment grew in 2013, accounting for 67%
of the Group's gross written premium, complemented by a meaningful,
albeit reduced, amount of reinsurance business (33%).
The spread of specific classes is very good, and we note that the
Group has shifted the business mix from its predominantly longer-tail,
liability past, towards shorter-tail property/reinsurance
lines.
Novae's financial profile benefits from a conservative investment
portfolio which is almost entirely comprised of fixed-income securities
and cash. Regulatory solvency is relatively healthy with the YE
2013 coverage of Novae's Lloyd's capital requirement (representing
Lloyd's Economic Capital Assessment) increasing to 127% (YE 2012:
115%). Novae's profitability metrics continue to improve
with a return on capital at YE 2013 of 7.2% (YE 2012:
6.6%), and its reported combined ratio improving to
86% (2012: 90% and 2011: 101%) or 90.3%
including central expenses, benefiting again from overall reserve
releases.
These strengths are mitigated by the potential volatility of Novae's
book as a specialty business with significant catastrophe exposure a feature.
Furthermore, although gross underwriting leverage again improved
to around 5.8x at YE 2013 (YE 2012: 6.3x and YE 2011:
7.2x), it remains relatively high reflecting the material
portion of longer-tail lines of business and capital repatriation
to shareholders. We view the prospect of materially improved capitalisation
over the near term as unlikely given Novae's progressive dividend policy
and commitment to pro-active capital management, and the
difficult trading environment suppressing profitability.
As a business operating within Lloyd's, Syndicate 2007 benefits
from the Lloyd's franchise and the central resources underpinning the
limited mutuality of the market. Our rating policy for individual
syndicate ratings is to evaluate syndicates on a stand-alone basis
and then consider the extent of central resources, including the
Lloyd's Central Fund, to provide enhancement to individual syndicate
ratings, with potential access to central resources being considered
as a supportive factor in the ratings.
Lloyd's overall aggregate financial position, including central
resources, remains very good. Lloyd's reported a good return
on capital of 16.2% for 2013, with its 5 year average
reported return on capital being around 13%. As at YE 2013,
Lloyd's reported an excess of central assets over solvency shortfalls
of GBP 3,123m for the Society (2012: GBP 3,121m),
a healthy level in our view.
In the same rating action, we have affirmed the Baa3 and Ba1 ratings
on Novae's senior unsecured and subordinated notes respectively.
These debt ratings reflect our view of the Group's stand-alone
credit quality. Whilst the Lloyd's Central Fund potentially provides
support to Lloyd's policyholders, it does not afford the same protection
to bondholders and thus the debt ratings reflect our standard practice
for notching European insurance companies.
With regard to rating drivers going forward, an improvement in Lloyd's
overall financial aggregate position could lead to positive rating action
for the A2 IFSR, and the following could put upward pressure on
the stand-alone credit profile of Syndicate 2007, and Novae's
debt ratings: Novae consistently delivering cross-cycle returns
on capital of at least 7%; reinsurance recoverables consistently
below 100% of equity; gross underwriting leverage consistently
below 4x; adjusted Group financial leverage consistently below 25%.
Conversely, a deterioration in Lloyd's overall financial aggregate
position could lead to negative rating action for the A2 IFSR, and
the following could put downward pressure on the stand-alone credit
profile of Syndicate 2007, and Novae's debt ratings:
Novae achieving returns on capital of less than 5%; gross
underwriting leverage consistently above 6x; and adjusted Group financial
leverage consistently above 35%.
The following ratings were affirmed with a stable outlook:
Lloyd's Syndicate 2007: A2 insurance financial strength rating
Novae Group Plc: Ba1 subordinated debt rating
Novae Group Plc: Baa3 senior unsecured debt rating
Novae, headquartered in London, United Kingdom, reported
at YE2013 gross premiums written of GBP 590m and total shareholders' equity
of GBP 313m.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Global Rating
Methodology for Reinsurers published in December 2011. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Dominic Simpson
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Simon Harris
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's affirms Novae's ratings (Baa3 senior, A2 IFSR on Lloyd's Syndicate 2007)