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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms PGN's Baa2 ratings; outlook stable

24 Jun 2020

Singapore, June 24, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed Perusahaan Gas Negara (P.T.)'s (PGN) Baa2 issuer rating and its Baa2 senior unsecured rating.

The rating outlook remains stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The affirmation reflects PGN's strong financial profile and strong liquidity which should be able to absorb any weaknesses due to lower gas demand and lower distribution margins, along with uncertainty about the company's role while it implements the government's directive to sell gas at $6/mmbtu to end users ," says Abhishek Tyagi, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

PGN's Baa2 rating reflects (1) its standalone credit profile, which is consistent with its Baa3 rating, and (2) a one-notch uplift, based on Moody's expectation that the company will receive support from the Government of Indonesia (Baa2 stable), possibly through Pertamina (Persero) (P.T.) (Pertamina, Baa2 stable), in times of need.

PGN's pricing power has declined markedly over the last year due to a series of government interventions to reduce gas prices for several industries, including a directive to cap the price of gas at $6/mmbtu for around 60% of its customers. Coupled with a likely contraction in gas demand, Moody's expects this measure will weaken PGN's credit metrics in 2020 but the level of these metrics will remain above the threshold for its standalone credit profile.

The profitability of PGN's upstream business will also be negatively impacted by low oil prices and a cut in its capital expenditure, which will lead to a decline in production from its producing assets.

PGN's credit metrics will weaken over the next 12 to 18 months, with retained cash flow (RCF)/debt at 15%-20% and interest coverage around 4.0x-4.5x. That said, PGN has financial buffer to manage its credit metrics within rating expectation.

The stable outlook on the ratings reflects PGN's strong liquidity and our expectation that PGN has financial headroom that will support its ability to navigate through the challenging industry conditions. In addition, we expect that PGN will maintain its strategically important position as the country's dominant gas transmission and distribution company, and its role in implementing the Indonesian government's policy decisions.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Moody's could upgrade PGN's ratings if Indonesia's sovereign rating is upgraded, and if PGN maintains its standalone credit strength. An upgrade of PGN's ratings is very unlikely if the sovereign rating is not upgraded, because the company's revenue comes from domestic sources.

A downgrade of Indonesia's sovereign rating will almost certainly trigger a downgrade for PGN. The ratings could also be downgraded if there is a material weakening of PGN's financial profile, including its consolidated debt/capitalization exceeding 60%-65% or its retained cash flow/debt falling below 12% on a sustained basis.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities published in June 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1072530. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

PGN is primarily engaged in the transmission and distribution of natural gas. Its transmission business is mainly operated by two subsidiaries, the 60%-owned PT Transportasi Gas Indonesia and the 51%-owned Pertamina Gas (P.T.) (Pertagas). Its distribution business recorded a strong 89% share of the total distribution volume in Indonesia in 2018, after consolidating Pertagas.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Abhishek Tyagi
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Terry Fanous
MD-Public Proj & Infstr Fin
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

​

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