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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Thai Oil's Baa1 ratings; outlook stable

27 May 2019

Singapore, May 27, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Thai Oil Public Company Limited's Baa1 senior unsecured debt ratings.

Moody's has also affirmed the provisional (P)Baa1 senior unsecured rating on the $2 billion global medium term note program, of which Thai Oil and Thaioil Treasury Center Company Limited (Thaioil TC) are co-issuers. Thaioil TC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Thai Oil.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the Baa1 ratings on Thaioil TC's backed senior unsecured notes. The notes are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Thai Oil.

The outlook is maintained at stable for Thai Oil and Thaioil TC.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Thai Oil's Baa1 ratings reflect its position as Thailand's largest and most complex refiner, stable refinery operations, long-term feedstock supply and product offtake agreements with its parent, PTT Public Company Limited (PTT, Baa1 stable) and strong liquidity profile.

"The ratings affirmation reflects our view that the expected deterioration of Thai Oil's credit metrics, because of its planned capital spending amidst a decline in refining margins, will be partly offset by working capital support from its parent," says Rachel Chua, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

"The Baa1 ratings also incorporate a two-notch uplift that reflects (1) PTT's willingness to provide working capital and intercompany funding support to reduce Thai Oil's financial burden while carrying out the large-scale refinery expansion; and (2) the likelihood of PTT providing extraordinary credit support in a situation of stress," adds Chua, who is also Moody's Lead Analyst for Thai Oil.

Thai Oil is strategically important to PTT's downstream oil business as its flagship refinery, and there is a close operational and financial integration between the two companies.

The company is undertaking a $4.8 billion refinery expansion and upgrading project in 2019-23, which will be funded using the proceeds of its $1 billion notes issuance in November 2018 and internal cash.

"We estimate Thai Oil's retained cash flow (RCF)-to-adjusted debt will weaken to 16%-18% through 2021, which can be accommodated in the company's revised standalone profile," adds Chua.

Moody's projections assume refining margins will improve from 2H 2019, because stricter sulfur limits on shipping fuel from January 2020 will support demand for middle distillates. Thai Oil is well positioned to benefit from this increase in middle distillate margins, as it has the ability to maximize diesel production.

Nonetheless, Moody's believes that a weaker-than-expected refining margin environment will be credit negative for Thai Oil.

Thai Oil's liquidity profile is strong. At 31 March 2019, the company held cash of THB39.9 billion and short-term investments of THB61.4 billion compared to total reported debt of THB102 billion, of which THB2.9 billion will come due over the next 12 months.

The outlook is stable, reflecting Moody's expectation that Thai Oil will manage its capital structure over the next 12-18 months, such that its credit metrics will remain in line with Moody's expectations, supported by healthy cash flow generation and prudent financial policies.

The stable outlook also takes into account Moody's expectation that Thai Oil will manage the execution risk associated with its large refinery upgrade project.

An upgrade of Thai Oil's Baa1 ratings is unlikely over the next 12-18 months given its ongoing capital expansion plan and weaker credit metrics.

Over the longer-term, an upgrade of the Baa1 ratings will require (1) an improvement in the company's standalone profile; and (2) an upgrade of PTT's rating.

Nonetheless, upward ratings pressure on Thai Oil's standalone profile could emerge over the longer term if the company completes its upgrading project and demonstrates a track record of stable operations at the upgraded plants, such that it generates healthy operating cash flow and margins.

Specific credit metrics that Moody's would consider include retained cash flow (RCF)/adjusted debt above 25%-30% and adjusted debt/EBITDA below 2.5x on a sustained basis.

Thai Oil's ratings will experience downward ratings pressure if (1) the operating environment deteriorates, resulting in weakened earnings and operating cash flows; (2) its balance sheet is used for aggressive dividend payouts or capital investments that materially change its business mix; or (3) it faces material operational disruptions at its plant or delays in executing its refinery expansion project.

Moody's will consider a ratings downgrade if Thai Oil's RCF/adjusted debt falls below 15% or adjusted debt/EBITDA above 3.0x-3.5x. Moody's will consider Thai Oil's cash balances in the analysis of these ratios.

A significant reduction in PTT's ownership of Thai Oil or a material change in the supply and offtake agreements between the two companies would be negative for the ratings.

Negative pressure on PTT's rating will also result in negative pressure on Thai Oil's ratings.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Refining and Marketing Industry published in November 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is a refiner and supplier of petroleum products in Thailand. The company operates the largest complex refinery in the country, with a nameplate capacity of 275 thousand barrels per day (bpd), or around 22% of the country's domestic crude refining capacity.

It is 48.03% owned by PTT Public Company Limited (Baa1 stable), which in turn is 51.1% owned by the Government of Thailand (Baa1 stable).

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Rachel Chua
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Laura Acres
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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