Singapore, December 13, 2012 -- Moody's has revised the rating outlook to negative from stable for
the various deposit and issuer ratings assigned to three Indian banks
- Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The revision in rating outlook reflects the increased risk posed by current
trends in asset quality, with continuing rise in Gross NPLs and
restructured loans pressuring profits and capital. Moody's
says that these Indian banks are particularly challenged by the prevailing
operating environment, characterized by high inflation and high
interest rates. These conditions are leading to a slowdown in economic
growth and are reducing the repayment ability of some corporate borrowers.
Moody's analysis takes into account these bank's comparatively low
provisioning, exposing their capital buffers to the risk of erosion
in the event that those difficult conditions persist.
The principal methodology used in rating of the three Indian banks was
Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology, published
in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com
for a copy of these methodologies.
Given the negative outlook, the BFSR, BCA, deposit ratings
and supported debt ratings, are unlikely to go up in the next 12-18
months.
At ba1 BCA with a negative outlook, which is at the lower end of
the D+ BFSR, the individual bank's standalone rating
could come under pressure if the asset quality (Gross NPLs and restructured
loans taken together and low provisioning cover) continues to deteriorate
to a point where gross NPLs as a percentage of shareholders capital and
loan loss reserves increase to over 35% and/or if pre-provision
income as a percentage of year-end average risk weighted assets
falls below 2.75%.
The individual bank's supported debt/issuer ratings (refer below
for rating lists for Individual banks) and global local currency (GLC)
bank deposit ratings of Baa2/P-2 could be lowered given the downward
revision of BCA and/or if our assumptions regarding the willingness and
capacity of the Indian government to support the bank were to change.
Given below are the individual rating rationales for each of the three
banks.
Punjab National Bank: Summary Rating Rationale
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Punjab National Bank's (PNB) Baa2
foreign currency long-term issuer rating. Moody's has also
affirmed its D+ bank financial strength rating (BFSR), mapping
to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) to ba1. PNB's global local
currency (GLC) deposit ratings remained at Baa2/P-2 and benefit
from a two-notch rating uplift from its ba1 BCA, given Moody's
current systemic support assumptions. The bank's foreign-currency
long-term issuer rating is in line with its GLC deposit rating
and foreign currency debt ceiling for Indian debt issuers.
The affirmation of PNB's issuer rating and BFSR reflects the bank's recent
core profitability indicators, especially its comparatively better
net interest margins. This strength points to good recurring earnings
power leveraged from its nationwide franchise and provides a moderate
degree of comfort that it could sustain the otherwise negative pressure
arising from the current environment. PNB is the second-largest
public-sector bank in India in terms of total assets, with
a nationwide franchise and it has a leading position in Northern India.
PNB's Baa3/P-3 foreign currency bank deposit rating,
also affirmed, is constrained by the foreign-currency deposit
ceiling for India and carries a stable outlook.
Punjab National Bank, headquartered in New Delhi, reported
assets of INR 4,582 billion as of 31 March 2012.
Canara Bank : Summary Rating Rationale
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Canara Bank's deposit and debt
ratings. These ratings are: Baa2/P-2 for global local
currency (GLC) bank deposit ratings, (P)Baa2 foreign currency senior
unsecured debt program, (P)Baa3 foreign currency subordinated debt
program, Ba1(hyb) foreign currency junior subordinated debt,
and (P)Ba1 foreign currency junior subordinated debt program.
Moody's has also affirmed the bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of
D+ and the baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba1.
Canara Bank's global local currency (GLC) bank deposit ratings of Baa2/P-2
and benefit from a two-notch rating uplift from its ba1 BCA,
given Moody's current systemic support assumptions. The bank's
foreign-currency senior unsecured debt program rating of (P)Baa2
is in line with its GLC deposit rating and foreign currency debt ceiling
for Indian debt issuers.
The foreign currency debt ratings are assigned to the London branch of
Canara Bank, which also issues debt under its medium-term
notes program.
The affirmation of Canara Bank's deposit and debt ratings and BFSR
reflects the bank's recent core profitability indicators, although
under pressure provide a moderate degree of comfort that it could sustain
the otherwise negative pressure arising from the current environment.
Canara Bank is the fifth largest public-sector bank in India in
terms of total assets, leverages its nationwide franchise and it
has a leading position in Southern India. Its current comfortable
liquidity and capitalization levels were other factors in our decision
to affirm its debt ratings.
Canara Bank's Baa3/P-3 foreign currency bank deposit rating,
also affirmed, is constrained by the foreign-currency deposit
ceiling for India and carries a stable outlook.
Canara Bank, headquartered in Bengaluru, had assets of INR
3,732 billion as of 31 March 2012.
Bank Of Baroda: Summary Rating Rationale:
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Bank of Baroda's deposit
and debt ratings. These ratings are: Baa2/P-2 for
global local currency (GLC) bank deposit ratings, (P)Baa2 foreign
currency senior unsecured debt program, Baa2 foreign currency senior
unsecured debt, (P)Baa3 foreign currency subordinated debt program,
Baa3 foreign currency subordinated debt, and (P)Ba1 foreign currency
junior subordinated debt program.
Moody's has also affirmed the bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of
D+ and the baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba1.
Bank of Baroda's global local currency (GLC) bank deposit ratings
of Baa2/P-2 and benefit from a two-notch rating uplift from
its ba1 BCA, given Moody's current systemic support assumptions.
The bank's foreign-currency senior unsecured rating of Baa2 is
in line with its GLC deposit rating and foreign currency debt ceiling
for Indian debt issuers.
The foreign currency debt ratings are assigned to the London branch of
BOB, which issues debt under its medium-term notes program.
The affirmation of Bank of Baroda's deposit and debt ratings, and
BFSR reflects the bank's recent core profitability indicators, supported
by improving operating efficiency. This strength points to good
recurring earnings power leveraged from its nationwide franchise and provides
a moderate degree of comfort that it could sustain the otherwise negative
pressure arising from the current environment. The rating affirmation
also reflects the bank's significant franchise with growing market share,
supporting its comfortable liquidity position. Bank of Baroda is
the third-largest public-sector bank in India in terms of
total assets, and it has a leading position in Western India with
a significant international presence.
Bank of Baroda's Baa3/P-3 foreign currency bank deposit rating,
also affirmed, is constrained by the foreign-currency deposit
ceiling for India and carries a stable outlook.
Bank of Baroda, headquartered in Mumbai, had assets of INR
4,459 billion as of 31 March 2012.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of
issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating
Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on
the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and
recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on
which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's
ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available.
Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is
the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available
to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has
issued the rating.
Vineet Gupta
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
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Stephen Long
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308
Moody's affirms debt and deposit ratings of three Indian Banks, revises outlook to Negative