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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms six classes of CGCMT 2016-P3

02 Jun 2020

Approximately $524.5 million of structured securities affected

New York, June 02, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has affirmed the ratings on six classes in Citigroup Commercial Mortgage Trust 2016-P3.

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-AB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-S, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)

Cl. X-A*, Affirmed Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar 18, 2019 Affirmed Aa1 (sf)

* Reflects interest-only classes

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings on five P&I classes were affirmed because the transaction's key metrics, including Moody's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction's Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges.

The rating on the IO class was affirmed based on the credit quality of its referenced classes.

Our analysis has considered the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on the US economy as well as the effects that the announced government measures, put in place to contain the virus, will have on the performance of commercial real estate. Stress on commercial real estate properties will be most directly stemming from declines in hotel occupancies (particularly related to conference or other group attendance) and declines in foot traffic and sales for non-essential items at retail properties.

The contraction in economic activity in the second quarter will be severe and the overall recovery in the second half of the year will be gradual. However, there are significant downside risks to our forecasts in the event that the pandemic is not contained, and lockdowns have to be reinstated. As a result, the degree of uncertainty around our forecasts is unusually high. We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.

Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 8.8% of the current pooled balance, compared to 5.2% at Moody's last review. Moody's base expected loss plus realized losses is now 8.2% of the original pooled balance, compared to 5.1% at the last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously expected.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.

METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTION

The principal methodology used in rating all classes except interest-only classes was "Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS" published in May 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1226187. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were "Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS" published in May 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1226187 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities" published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

DEAL PERFORMANCE

As of the May 15, 2020 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 7.2% to $715.3 million from $770.9 million at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 36 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 8.9% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 64.1% of the pool. One loan, constituting 5.7% of the pool, has an investment-grade structured credit assessment.

As of the May 2020 remittance report, loans representing 59% of the pool were current or within their grace period on their debt service payments and 37% were beyond their grace period but less than 30 days delinquent.

Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 20, compared to 21 at Moody's last review.

Four loans, constituting 15.9% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist, of which two loans, representing 9.0% of the pool, indicate the borrower has requested relief in relation to coronavirus impact on the property. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody's ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.

There have been no loans liquidated from the pool since securitization. There are currently six loans in special servicing, constituting 18.8% of the pool balance. Four of the specially serviced loans, representing 10.7% of the pool, have transferred to special servicing since March 2020 due to COVID-19 related disruptions.

The largest loan is the 600 Broadway Loan ($46.7 million -- 6.5% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of a $112.6 million mortgage loan and is secured by a six-story retail building located in the SoHo District of New York City. The loan transferred to special servicing in December 2019 for imminent non-monetary default. The loan was modified in early 2019, which included lender approval of Abercrombie & Fitch to "go dark", a conversion from interest-only period to 15-year amortization, and the payment of an $8 million go dark fee which was applied to TI/LC reserves and principal paydowns. The property is currently 0% physically occupied due to Abercrombie & Fitch (through its subsidiaries, Abercrombie, Hollister and Gilly Hicks), and 24-Hour Fitness being dark. The Abercrombie & Fitch Management Co. 's (Abercrombie, Ba3 negative outlook) leases do not expire until May 2028. The borrower made an additional request to terminate current tenant 24 Hour Fitness and replace them with Konrad Group, which is scheduled to take occupancy and begin paying rent in November 2020. The loan is currently paid through its April 2020 payment date and due to the tenant concentration Moody's applied a lit/dark analysis.

The second loan in special servicing is the Marriott Monterey Loan ($33.0 million -- 4.6% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of a $61.4 million mortgage loan and is secured by a 341-room, full service hotel, located in Monterey, California. The loan is last paid through its April 2020 payment and was transferred to special servicing due to COVID-19 related hardships. The special servicer commentary indicated forbearance is under consideration. The property exhibited strong performance in 2019 due to increases in room and food and beverage revenue since securitization. The 2019 reported NOI DSCR was 2.86X.

The other four loans in special servicing each represent less than 2% of the pool and are secured by either hotel or retail properties.

Moody's has also assumed a high default probability for three poorly performing loans, constituting 3.3% of the pool, that are secured by either hotel or retail assets that have exhibited declining NOI since securitization. Moody's has estimated an aggregate loss of $24.9 million (a 26% expected loss on average) from these troubled loans and specially serviced loans.

Moody's received full year 2018 operating results for 100% and full or partial year 2019 operating results for 100% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 125%, compared to 121% at Moody's last review. Moody's conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody's net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 28% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 10.2%.

Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.43X and 0.89X, respectively, compared to 1.52X and 0.91X at Moody's last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.

The loan with a structured credit assessment is the 225 Liberty Street Loan ($40.5 million -- 5.7% of the pool), which is secured by the leasehold interest in a 44-story, 2.4 million square feet (SF) Class A office tower located in the Financial District of New York City. The $900 million whole loan is comprised of six pari passu notes with an aggregate balance of $459 million and three junior notes with an aggregate balance of $441 million. As of December 2019, the property was 93% leased, compared to 97% as of December 2018. The largest three tenants are: Time Inc. (29% NRA, lease expiration 12/31/2032), BNY Mellon (14% NRA, lease expiration 9/30/2020), and Bank of America (13% NRA, lease expiration 12/31/2034). BNY Mellon has relocated its corporate headquarters to 240 Greenwich Street in New York's Tribeca neighborhood from 225 Liberty Street and approximately 384,825 SF (16% of NRA) at the property is currently being listed as available for lease The property operates subject to long-term ground lease with the Battery Park City Authority through June 2069. The loan is interest only for its entire 10-year loan term. Moody's structured credit assessment and stressed DSCR are baa1 (sca.pd) and 1.38X, respectively, compared to a2 (sca.pd) and 1.47X at Moody's last review.

The top three conduit loans represent 24.0% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Empire Mall Loan ($63.5 million -- 8.9% of the pool), which is secured by the fee and leasehold interests in a 1.1 SF regional mall located in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The loan represents a pari-passu portion of a $186 million first mortgage loan. The mall is currently anchored by J.C. Penney, Macy's and Dick's Sporting Goods. Two former anchors, Younkers and Sears, vacated the property in August 2018 and September 2018, respectively. Current anchor J.C. Penney has recently declared bankruptcy and announced plans to close approximately 200 stores. The collateral was 78% occupied as of December 2019 compared to 87% as of December 2018 and 97% at securitization. The property is the dominant retail center in the trade area and represents the only enclosed mall within a 75-mile radius. The sponsor is Simon Property Group. The property's 2019 NOI was 13% below underwritten levels as a result of declining rental revenues. The loan had an initial interest only period and has amortized 2% since securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 129% and 0.86X, respectively, compared to 110% and 0.95X at the last review.

The second largest loan is the Marriott Midwest Portfolio Loan ($55.0 million -- 7.7% of the pool), which is secured by the cross-collateralized fee simple interests in seven extended-stay hotels and three limited-service hotels located across three states. The loan represents a pari-passu portion of a $82.5 million first mortgage loan. The seven extended-stay hotels are flagged as TownePlace Suites and the three limited-service hotels are flagged as SpringHill Suites. The loan became delinquent in April 2020 and the borrower has notified the servicer of COVID-19 related hardships. Performance was essentially stable prior to the COVID-19 impact. As of September 2019, DSCR was 2.39X with portfolio occupancy of 75%, ADR of $104.96 and RevPAR of $79.30. The loan is interest only for its entire term and matures in March 2021. The property has exhibited a high DSCR during its 5-year term, however, it may face upcoming refinance risk with a maturity date in less than 12 months.

The third largest loan is the Nyack College NYC Loan ($53.4 million -- 7.5% of the pool), which is secured by the condominium interest in a 22-story, Class B office building located in the Financial District of New York City. The collateral improvements contain 166,385 SF component of the larger 479,050 SF area spanning two buildings, known as 17 Battery Place North and 17 Battery Place South. The property has been 100% leased by Nyack College since securitization with a lease expiration date in 2036. Due to a single tenant exposure Moody's applied its lit/dark analysis. After an initial interest only period the loan has amortized 3% since securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 130% and 0.87X, respectively, compared to 133% and 0.86X at the last review.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Dariusz Surmacz
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Matthew Halpern
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2020 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND/OR ITS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S (COLLECTIVELY, "PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE SUCH  CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE MOODY'S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS ("ASSESSMENTS"), AND  OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND  PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND  PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES  ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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