Note: On June 14, 2022, the press release was corrected as follows: in the RATINGS RATIONALE section, the sentence relating to the Economic Data information was updated to read: “Specific economic indicators as required by EU regulation are not available for the EU”. Revised release follows.
Paris, March 18, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the European Union's (EU) long-term Aaa issuer rating, the Aaa senior unsecured ratings, the (P)Aaa senior unsecured MTN program rating and the other short term (P)P-1 rating and maintained the stable outlook.
The decision to affirm the Aaa rating reflects the following key rating factors:
1) The strong commitment of the EU's large and highly rated member states - particularly the Government of Germany (Aaa stable), the Government of France (Aa2 stable) and the Government of the Netherlands (Aaa stable) - to continue to support the institution financially.
2) The successful implementation of the sharp increase in EU issuance and the ample financial resources available to service the increase in outstanding debt.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that member states' willingness and ability to support the EU financially will remain very strong, and that the stability of the legal framework and financial commitments underpinning the EU's financial operations will remain intact. The stable outlook also reflects Moody's expectations that the EU will continue to be able to access very large volumes of funding on favourable terms to support the implementation of NGEU.
Concurrently, Moody's has affirmed the European Atomic Energy Community's (Euratom) and the European Coal and Steel Community's (ECSC) long-term Aaa issuer ratings, their (P)Aaa senior unsecured MTN program and other short term (P)P-1 ratings, and also affirmed Euratom's Aaa senior unsecured ratings. The outlooks remain stable for both entities. While Euratom and the ECSC are separate legal entities, their key credit characteristics are identical to the EU's. The European Commission (EC) borrows on behalf of Euratom and any debt repayment obligations are backed by the EU's budgetary resources and the EC's right to call for additional resources from member states if needed. The same applies for ECSC which has been in liquidation since 2001 and its last outstanding bonds expired in 2019. Hence, both entities' ratings move in line with the EU's.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF THE Aaa RATING
FIRST DRIVER: THE STRONG COMMITMENT OF THE EU'S HIGHLY RATED SHAREHOLDERS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE INSTITUTION FINANCIALLY
The Aaa rating of the EU is underpinned by the very strong creditworthiness of its 27 member states. The EU has an average-weighted shareholder rating (based on member states share of EU GNI as the EU has no paid-in capital) of "a1" - one of the highest of all supranational entities rated by Moody's. This is particularly based on the creditworthiness of large and highly rated member states such as Germany, France and the Netherlands. Moreover, the only member state that currently does not have a stable or positive outlook is the Government of Malta (A2 negative), the bloc's smallest economy.
This very strong ability to support the EU financially is further supplemented by a very high willingness to support the institution, over and above member states contractual commitments if needed. The EU plays a key role for promoting economic development and political cooperation across Europe, giving member states' strong incentives beyond narrowly financial considerations to make sure the institution remains functioning and solvent.
The importance of the EU as a motor for economic development and reform has only been enhanced by the roll-out in 2021 of its post-pandemic recovery fund NGEU. The introduction of the €750 billion (2018 prices) investment fund marks the first time the EU has offered grants to member states backed by joint EU borrowing, a move which represent a step change for the role of the EU as an issuer and a provider of financial support to member states.
The strength of member states' financial backing of the EU is also evidenced by the existence of what Moody's considers to be the equivalent of a joint several support framework to ensure that common EU obligations to third parties are honoured even if one or several member states fail to meet their financial obligations to the EU. The general principles for this framework have long been laid down in EU law in article 14 of the so-called Making Available Regulation (Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No. 609/2014) which states that the EC has the legal right to draw on all member states in the event a borrowing country fails to repay its loan to the EU on time. Article 323 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (2007) also states that the EU institutions "shall ensure that the financial means are made available to allow the Union to fulfil its legal obligations in respect of third parties." The detailed operation of the joint and several support framework in respect of NGEU has recently also been further codified and clarified in EU law in Article 9 of the so-called Own Resources Decision (Council Decision (EU, Euratom) No. 2020/2053).
SECOND DRIVER: THE SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SHARP INCREASE IN EU ISSUANCE AND THE AMPLE FINANCIAL RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO SERVICE THE INCREASE IN OUTSTANDING DEBT
The implementation of NGEU starting in 2021 and the €100 billion European Instrument for Temporary Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) starting in 2020, has led to a sharp increase in EU issuance volumes. Having only issued €400 million in 2019, the EU's total issuance of long-term bonds reached approximately €135 billion in 2021, making it the world's by far largest supranational issuer of debt in that year.
However, this sharp increase in the role and prominence of the EU as an issuer of debt has proceeded in line with our expectations for a Aaa-rated supranational issuer since the first SURE issuances were made in October 2020. Demand for the EU's bond issuances has been consistently very strong and borrowing costs broadly in line with that of other Aaa-rated supranationals. The successful increase in the EU's issuance volumes over the past 18 months, leaves Moody's confident that the EU will continue to enjoy access to ample market funding on favourable terms for its planned issuances of €100 to 150 billion per year until 2026 to fund NGEU.
The sharp increase in issuance volumes and the stock of outstanding debt to fund NGEU is backed by a very significant increase in the resources made available by member states to service this debt. The legal framework for NGEU and the EU budget commits member states to make available up to 0.6% of EU GNI annually until 2058 (through a corresponding increase of the so-called own resources ceiling of the EU budget) to fund principal and interest payments resulting from NGEU.
Moreover, the annual ceiling of 0.6% of EU GNI is far in excess of the annual amounts likely to be needed to service NGEU debt. Although the nominal value of the 0.6% of GNI annual ceiling will increase with the nominal growth of the EU economy until 2058, it corresponds to about ?80 billion in 2018 prices. The legal framework for EU own resources stipulates that annual principal payments can at most amount to 7.5% of the ?390 billion in grant funding available under NGEU, approximately €29 billion in 2018 prices. Furthermore, the European Commission estimates that a linear repayment schedule for EU borrowing to fund the NGEU grant component (which represents the truly joint liability under NGEU) would lead to average debt service costs of around €15 billion annually until 2058. While the volume of EU borrowing and debt has thus gone up sharply since 2019, the resources made available to service that debt have increased by even more.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that member states' willingness and ability to support the EU financially, over and above their contractual obligations if needed, will remain very strong. It also reflects the stability of the legal framework underpinning the EU's financial framework, including what Moody's considers to be a legal commitment that is equivalent to a joint and several support framework. The stable outlook also reflects Moody's expectations that the EU will continue to be able to access very large volumes of funding on favourable terms to support the implementation of NGEU.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Environmental considerations are not material for the EU's rating. While the EU plays an important role in global initiatives to react to climate change, and its capacity to do so underlines its importance to its members, neither the EU itself nor its principal supporting member states are directly exposed to heightened environmental risks.
Similarly, while all EU member states face long-term challenges related to demographic and other social developments, and the development of policy to address EU-wide social tensions (including those arising from inequality and unemployment) is an important aspect of the EU's role, social considerations do not directly influence the EU's rating in a material way.
Governance considerations are an important support for the EU's credit profile, and the EU's Aaa rating partly reflects its very strong institutional setup, though aspects typically considered to be related to governance are not key drivers of the rating.
Specific economic indicators as required by EU regulation are not available for the EU.
On 15 March 2022, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the European Union. The main points raised during the discussion were: The EU's member states' support remains very high, reflecting the significant credit strength of its most highly-rated members and their commitment to ensure continued soundness of the EU's finances. The strength of the EU's liquidity and funding profile also remains very high, supported by a "aaa" quality of funding score. The EU's quality of management has improved, as reflected in the well-executed implementation of the significant increase in EU issuance volumes since 2020.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade of the EU's ratings is not possible as its Aaa ratings are at the highest level on Moody's rating scale.
Any potential weakening in the commitment of highly rated member states to the EU, or in the commitment of the EU's highly rated members to provide regular payments to the EU budget as well as extraordinary support, would lead to downward pressure on the Aaa rating. Downward pressures would also result from a deterioration in the creditworthiness of highly rated EU members. The EU's rating is particularly sensitive to changes in the ratings of the three countries rated Aaa to Aa2 that make large contributions to the EU budget, i.e. Germany, France, and the Netherlands.
The joint and several nature of the obligations of member countries relative to EU obligations has never been tested. Should anything occur which suggests that this feature is weaker than previously anticipated, that would pose downward pressure on the rating.
Downward pressure would also emerge if the EU's access and quality of funding were to materially deteriorate over the coming 12 to 18 months. Any changes to its fiscal and liquidity management framework that would lead to less conservative budget and financial management would also be credit negative.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Multilateral Development Banks and Other Supranational Entities Methodology published in October 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1232238. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Petter Bryman
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
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Alejandro Olivo
Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
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Releasing Office:
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