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Global Credit Research - 23 Dec 2010
GBP 315 million of EMEA CMBS affected
London, 23 December 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the ratings of the following
Class of Notes issued by Radamantis (European Loan Conduit No.
24) plc (amounts reflect initial outstandings):
CL. A, Affirmed at Aa3 (sf); previously on March 12,
2010 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)
CL. X, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on August 23,
2006 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
Moody's does not rate the Class B, C, D, E, F
and G Notes.
The key parameters in our analysis are the default probabilities of the
securitised loans, both during the term and at maturity, as
well as our value assessment for the properties securing these loans.
We derive from those parameters a loss expectation for the securitised
pool. Based on our revised assessment, the loss expectation
for the pool has marginally increased since our last review in March 2010.
However, the current loss expectations remain within an acceptable
range such that the credit enhancement for Class A is sufficient to affirm
the current rating.
In our view, the overall default probability of all four loans in
the pool has increased since the last review due to a re-evaluation
of the refinancing risk. Conversely, our assessment of the
current value of the properties securing the transaction has not changed
since March 2010. As we expect very limited increase in commercial
property values over the next two years, we anticipate that all
the loans, with the exception of the South Quay Plaza loan,
will remain highly leveraged at refinancing.
The Milton & Shire House loan, which is the largest loan in
the pool (54% of pool balance), has a Moody's exit
LTV ratio of approximately 116% on a whole loan basis and 102%
on a senior (securitised) loan basis. Consequently, we continue
to expect a high likelihood of default at the extended loan maturity date
in October 2012, despite the scheduled amortisation on the senior
loan. The Hayes Business Park loan is maturing in January 2011,
with a current Moody's whole loan LTV of 106%. We
are unchanged in our view that refinancing at the maturity date is unlikely,
and note that default or transfer to special servicing of the Hayes Business
Park loan would be insufficient to trigger a Sequential Redemption Event.
Our expected exit LTVs for the Westferry and South Quay Plaza loans remain
largely unchanged at 108% and 69% respectively.
The rating of Class A is slightly sensitive to the performance of the
Hayes Business Park loan and potential prepayment of the relatively low
leveraged South Quay Plaza loan. We are anticipating a default
of the Hayes Business Park loan, but would not expect an immediate
liquidation of the properties. Depending on the actual performance
of the loan at refinancing, work-out strategy of the special
servicer and revaluation of the Hayes buildings, some modest rating
sensitivity can be expected. In parallel, a prepayment of
the South Quay Plaza loan could add downward pressure on the Class A rating.
In our opinion, the South Quay Plaza loan (19.6% of
the current pool) has a lower expected loss than the average of the pool,
and prepayment would not bring much additional subordination to Class
A, as proceeds would be allocated on a modified pro-rata
basis to Classes A to E of Notes, unless a Sequential Redemption
Event is determined by the time of prepayment.
As of the October 26, 2010 interest payment date, the transaction's
total pool balance was GBP493.5M, the same as at closing.
There has been no changes in the portfolio composition and no repayments
nor prepayments since closing. The properties are predominantly
office use (99%) and the remainder is retail use (1%).
The loan Herfindahl score is 2.7. Overall rental cashflows
have remained stable since Moody's last reviewed the transaction in March
2010. In February 2010, the Milton & Shire House loan
was restructured in conjunction with an extension and amendment of the
lease agreements with the sole tenant, Linklaters LLP. The
restructuring included a 1.5 year term extension to October 2012
and scheduled amortisation of GBP750,000 per quarter during
the extension period. The Hayes Business Park loan is on the servicer's
watchlist since July 2010, pending maturity on January 20,
The Class X Certificates are entitled to receive the difference between
(i) interest payable on the loans, prepayment fees received by the
Issuer and interest rate swap breakage receipts, and (ii) interest
payable on the Notes and certain costs. However, the rating
of the Class X Certificates does not address the likelihood of payment
of any prepayment fees, interest rate swap breakage receipts,
and any surplus available interest receipts. Liquidity advances
drawn to cover interest shortfalls on the loans can be used to cover potential
interest shortfalls on the Class X Certificates. The Class X Certificates
are not debt securities issued by the Issuer or any other person.
The rights represented by the Class X Certificates are capable of assignment
and have initially been retained by the Issuer. Moody's believes
that the Class X Certificates have a different risk profile in comparison
to the other classes in the transaction given their characteristics.
The rating of the Class X Certificates is therefore not directly affected
by the credit risk of the loan portfolio.
The principal methodologies used in rating and monitoring this transaction
was "Update on Moody's Real Estate Analysis for CMBS Transaction in EMEA"
June 2005 and "Moody's Updates on its Surveillance Approach for EMEA CMBS"
The updated assessment is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance
of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's
prior review is summarised in a Press Release dated 12 March 2010.
The last Performance Overview for this transaction was published on 10
December 2010. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity
page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
Andrea M. Daniels
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
Moody's affirms the rating of CMBS Notes issued by Radamantis (European Loan Conduit No. 24) plc
One Canada Square
London E14 5FA
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
No Related Data.
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