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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns A2 rating to Riverside County's Lease Revenue refunding Bonds, Series 2012

08 Oct 2012

Approximately $18 million of debt affected; outlook is stable

New York, October 08, 2012 --

Moody's Rating

Issue: Lease Revenue Refunding Bonds (County Facilities Projects), Series 2012; Rating: A2; Sale Amount: $17,870,000; Expected Sale Date: 10/15/12; Rating Description: Lease Rental: Abatement

Opinion

Moody's Investors Service has assigned an A2 rating to Riverside County's upcoming sale of Lease Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2012. The outlook is stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating largely reflects ongoing weakening of the county's already narrow financial position. The county has faced substantial challenges as the weak economy cut into its discretionary revenues. Management has been unable to overcome these challenges, and both operating and structural balance in the general fund remain elusive. The rating continues to reflect the county's very large tax base which has long term advantages, such as low cost real estate, sizable warehousing and distribution facilities, and a nascent alternative energy production sector. In the nearer term, the effects of the recession are still palpable, including a weak housing market and high unemployment. However, there are some modest signs that the county's recession is abating. The rating also incorporates the county's manageable debt portfolio. The stable outlook reflects the combined effects of the modestly improving economy and slowing rate of financial weakening, suggesting that the county's credit position will remain consistent with the current rating over the long term.

The two notch rating distinction between the A2 on the lease rating and the county's Aa3- Issuer rating represents Moody's standard notching differential for fixed asset leases relative to a California issuer's general obligation rating. Broadly speaking the two notches reflect the risk of abatement and the narrower, general fund security pledge for leases compared to the very strong, voter-approved unlimited property tax pledge securing general obligation bonds.

STRENGTHS

-Large, diversified tax base

-Economy positioned to return to long-term growth based on low cost, well-located commercial/industrial real estate

CHALLENGES

-Declining revenue base resulting from weak economy and residential real estate market collapse

-Inability to achieve sustained operating or structural budgetary balance, resulting in continued narrowing of already comparatively thin financial position

OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects the combined effects of the modestly improving economy and slowing rate of financial weakening, suggesting that the county's credit position will remain consistent with the current rating over the long term.

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP

- Sustained positive operating results resulting in materially stronger financial position

- Return to strong, sustained economic growth

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN

- Materially weakened financial position

The principal methodology used in this rating was General Obligation Bonds Issued by U.S. Local Governments published in October 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.

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Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Gregory W. Lipitz
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Kevork Khrimian
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Public Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's assigns A2 rating to Riverside County's Lease Revenue refunding Bonds, Series 2012
No Related Data.
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