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Related Issuers
Rating Action:

Moody's assigns A3/Aaa.mx rating to Pemex proposed certificados bursatiles

 The document has been translated in other languages

21 Sep 2015

NOTE: On October 1, 2015, In the REGULATORY DISCLOSURES section, added the following disclosure: “In compliance with regulatory requirements, Moody’s de Mexico has been informed that within the two-month period prior to the date hereof, HR Ratings has assigned a rating of HR A-(G) / HR AAA on the same securities referred to in this press release.” Revised release follows.

Mexico, September 21, 2015 -- Moody's de México has assigned A3 global local currency bond and Aaa.mx national scale ratings to Petroleos Mexicanos' (PEMEX) proposed issuances of senior unsecured certificados bursatiles (Mexican notes) with the tickers PEMEX 15 and PEMEX 15U. At the same time, the company will issue add-on notes to its existing senior unsecured certificados bursatiles with ticker PEMEX 14-2, rated A3/Aaa.mx. These add-on notes have no effect on the current ratings. The issuance of the combined three set of notes will be of up to a maximum joint amount of MXN 15,000 million. The ratings are on review for downgrade.

The proposed certificados bursatiles will be issued under PEMEX's five-year MXN 200 billion certificados bursatiles program registered in June 2014 with Mexico's regulator Comision Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV).

RATINGS RATIONALE

PEMEX's current A3 and Aaa.mx ratings are on review for downgrade. The ratings as well as the company's ba1 baseline credit assessment (BCA), a measure of the company's intrinsic credit risk regardless of government support, reflect PEMEX's sizable proved hydrocarbon reserves, which in 2014 amounted to about 13,400 million boe, equivalent to 10 years of life; its oil production averaging 2,429 mbd in 2014; its dominant role and integrated operations in the energy industry in Mexico; and its position as a leading crude oil exporter to the U.S. However, the ratings also factor in the company's heavy tax burden and increasing financial leverage. PEMEX's ratings also consider challenges related to production, which has been gradually falling in the last several years due to the company's limited ability to invest. In addition, the lack of a clear financial policy with regards to target debt leverage also constrains PEMEX's ratings.

The ratings were placed on review for downgrade on August 25, 2015. The review period should be completed within no more than 90 days from August 25, according to Moody's usual practices. This rating action was triggered by Moody's expectation that continued depressed oil prices will further undercut PEMEX's cash flow generation and result in rising balance sheet leverage over the next several years. The company will have much larger borrowing needs to fund negative free cash flow now that oil prices have fallen more than 60% compared to a year ago. Unless the government provides substantial injections of equity capital or reduces taxes and duties in a material way, Moody's expects PEMEX to have much greater borrowing needs in 2016 and 2017, which will push debt balances far above historic levels at a time when production is stagnant and profitability and cash flow are very weak.

Moody's review will consider the degree to which PEMEX can improve its cost structure and adjust capital spending without significantly affecting production and reserves. Moody's will also consider if the company has material funding alternatives other than debt. In addition, the rating agency will take into consideration the likely mechanisms, timeliness, and size of support from the government of Mexico (A3 stable), in case of need.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry published in April 2014. Other methodologies used include the Government-Related Issuers methodology published in October 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of these methodologies.

The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine Petroleos Mexicanos' rating is between 2009 and June 30, 2015.

Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in June 2014 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity prior to public dissemination.

A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process, and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure tab in www.moodys.com.mx.

The date of the last Credit Rating Action was 25/08/2015.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

In compliance with regulatory requirements, Moody’s de Mexico has been informed that within the two-month period prior to the date hereof, HR Ratings has assigned a rating of HR A-(G) / HR AAA on the same securities referred to in this press release.

This Rating is subject to upgrade or downgrade based on future changes in the financial condition of the Issuer/Security, and said modifications will be made without Moody's de México S.A. de C.V accepting any liability as a result.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on www.moodys.com.mx for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see our website www.moodys.com.mx for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com.mx for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Nymia C. Almeida
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
Ave. Paseo de las Palmas
No. 405 - 502
Col. Lomas de Chapultepec
Mexico, DF 11000
Mexico
JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833
SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700

Marianna Waltz, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 800-891-2518
SUBSCRIBERS: 55-11-3043-7300

Releasing Office:
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
Ave. Paseo de las Palmas
No. 405 - 502
Col. Lomas de Chapultepec
Mexico, DF 11000
Mexico
JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833
SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700

Moody's assigns A3/Aaa.mx rating to Pemex proposed certificados bursatiles
No Related Data.
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