New York, April 06, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Aa1 rating to the Commonwealth of Virginia's $60.3 million School Technology and Security Notes, Series IX, to be issued by the Virginia Public School Authority (VPSA). The outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Aa1 rating on VPSA's School Technology and Security Notes reflects the obligation of the Commonwealth of Virginia (Aaa stable) to make payments from funds appropriated by the General Assembly. Security rests with the continued willingness of the commonwealth to make payments in amounts sufficient to meet debt service requirements as they come due. The one-notch distinction in the rating from the commonwealth's general obligation rating incorporates the essential nature of the projects financed by the bonds and the moderately strong legal structure, including the risk of non-appropriation.
RATING OUTLOOK
The VPSA School Technology and Security Notes carry the stable outlook of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia's stable outlook is based on continued budgetary balance and financial flexibility maintained through the use of strong governance and financial management practices.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATING
- Given that the bonds are rated based on the state's Aaa rating and notched once off the state's rating due to the risk of non-appropriation, an upgrade is unlikely
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
- A downgrade of the Commonwealth of Virginia's rating
- Non-appropriation of needed funds for debt service
LEGAL SECURITY
Revenue from the commonwealth's Literary Fund is the first source for payment of debt service on the notes, subject to appropriation by the General Assembly. The Literary Fund is a permanent school fund established by Virginia's constitution and is funded with constitutionally dedicated receipts from criminal fines and forfeitures, abandoned property, unclaimed lottery prizes, as well as income from the investment of those funds and interest payments on loans made to localities from the fund.
Literary Fund revenue can vary widely and be difficult to forecast. For example, over the past ten years from fiscal 2011 to 2020, debt service coverage has varied between 3.0 times and 6.8 times. The latter reflects fiscal 2015 Literary Fund coverage of debt service on all outstanding VPSA educational technology and security equipment notes. Fiscal 2015 revenue soared by 118% over the previous year and 78% above 2010 levels. Debt service coverage decreased to 3.0 times in fiscal 2019 as Literary Fund revenue softened to $214 million mainly because of declines in unclaimed property revenue. Fiscal 2020 Literary Fund revenue grew to $249 million, providing 3.6 times debt service coverage. Based on November 2020 projections, total Literary Fund revenue is expected to decline by over 40% to $143 million in fiscal 2021. Despite the revenue decline, coverage will remain solid at 2.0 times, including estimated debt service for the current issue.
Pursuant to a memorandum of understanding between the Virginia Department of Education (DOE) and VPSA, by November 1 of each year, the DOE agrees to notify the governor and the director of the Department of Planning and Budget of the amount of debt service due in the next fiscal year. The DOE also agrees to use its best efforts to have an appropriation from the Literary Fund equal to the debt service amount included in the governor's budget request. Further, the DOE agrees to request a General Fund appropriation in an amount sufficient to cover debt service should there be a Literary Fund shortfall.
According to the notes resolution, VPSA similarly covenants to use its best efforts to have the governor include those appropriations in any biennial or supplemental budget request. The current appropriations act includes both the Literary Fund and sum sufficient General Fund appropriations. The Literary Fund is also a source of backup appropriation for VPSA's 1997 Resolution pooled school financing bonds.
USE OF PROCEEDS
Proceeds from the Series IX notes will be used to make grants to various school divisions of localities within the commonwealth for the purpose of establishing a computer-based instructional and testing system, increasing high-speed internet connectivity and financing the costs of security equipment.
PROFILE
Virginia is the twelfth largest state by population (8.6 million people in 2020) and the thirteenth largest state by GDP ($551.8 billion in 2020 current dollars). VPSA is an agency of the commonwealth that is authorized to provide financing to cities and counties for capital construction of primary and secondary schools. The authority is governed by an eight-member board comprised of the state treasurer, the state comptroller, the superintendent of public instruction, and five appointments by the governor.
METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Lease, Appropriation, Moral Obligation and Comparable Debt of US State and Local Governments published in January 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1260202. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
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Pisei Chea
Lead Analyst
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