New York, April 06, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned an initial Aa3 issuer rating to Santa Rosa City Schools, CA (SRCS). The issuer rating reflects SRCS' ability to repay debt and debt-like obligations without consideration of any pledge, security, or structural features. Concurrently, Moody's confirms Santa Rosa Elementary School District, CA's general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) bond rating at Aa3 and Santa Rosa High School District, CA's GOULT bond rating at Aa2. The outlook on all ratings is negative. This action concludes a review with direction uncertain initiated on January 26, 2021 in conjunction with the release of Moody's new US K-12 Public School Districts Methodology. This rating action affects approximately $203.8 million of debt outstanding.
Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBM_PBM906978224 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Aa3 issuer rating reflects Santa Rosa City Schools' stable local economy anchored by its proximity to the San Francisco Bay Area. The rating incorporates the district's trend of declining enrollment and average resident wealth and income levels. The district's finances are currently adequate, but are projected to narrow through at least 2022 absent substantial one-time pandemic-related monies. SRCS' leverage is manageable.
The Aa3 on Santa Rosa Elementary School District's GOULT bonds is equal to SRCS' issuer rating. The tax base securing the bonds is meaningfully smaller than SRCS' total AV, socioeconomic indicators of the ESD are lower than SRCS as a whole, and ESD enrollment is declining at a sharper rate than at the high school district. The rating also incorporates California school district general obligation (GO) bond security features that include the physical separation through a "lockbox" for pledged property tax collections and a security interest created by statute.
The Aa2 on Santa Rosa High School District's GOULT bonds is one notch higher than SRCS' issuer rating and the tax base securing the bonds is the same as SRCS' AV, while socioeconomic indicators and enrollment are largely consistent with the SRCS. The rating also incorporates California school district general obligation (GO) bond security features that include the physical separation through a "lockbox" for pledged property tax collections and a security interest created by statute.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the challenges the district faces to meaningfully realign revenues and expenditures and maintain a reserve position adequate for the rating level. Resolution of the outlook will focus on management's ability to effectively implement budgetary reforms to balance the district's reserve position in the coming years.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Improved alignment of recurring revenues with recurring expenditures
Stabilization at or above current reserve levels
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Deficit consistent with 2021 projections
Meaningful growth to long-term liabilities
LEGAL SECURITY
Santa Rosa High School District, CA and Santa Rosa Elementary School District, CA's GOULT bonds are secured by an unlimited property tax pledge of all taxable property within respective districts' boundary. Sonoma County, rather than the districts will levy, collect, and disburse the districts' property taxes that are constitutionally restricted to pay debt service on general obligation bonds.
PROFILE
Since 1983, the operation and management of Santa Rosa Elementary School District and Santa Rosa High School District have been combined as Santa Rosa City Schools (SRCS). SRCS manages the merged financial and personnel matters for both districts, which are governed by a single board. Each district has a separate tax base, capital facilities, and indebtedness.
Santa Rosa City Schools is located in Sonoma County, approximately 50 miles northeast of San Francisco (Aaa negative). Santa Rosa City Schools has an average daily attendance (ADA) of about 15,809, including high school, elementary and charter school students. Santa Rosa High School District has a 2020 ADA of 10,941 while Santa Rosa Elementary School District has a 2020 ADA of 4,868. SRCS serves residents living in the Santa Rosa (Aa2) and small portions of the Rohnert Park, Windsor, unincorporated Sonoma County.
METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was US K-12 Public School Districts Methodology published in January 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1202421. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The List of Affected Credit Ratings announced here are all solicited credit ratings. Additionally, the List of Affected Credit Ratings includes additional disclosures that vary with regard to some of the ratings. Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBM_PBM906978224 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:
- Rating Solicitation
- Issuer Participation
- Participation: Access to Management
- Participation: Access to Internal Documents
- Disclosure to Rated Entity
- Endorsement
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.
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for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
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