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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns Aa3 to Oberlin College's (OH) revenue bonds; outlook stable

01 Jul 2021

New York, July 01, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Aa3 rating to Oberlin College's proposed $81 million Taxable Bonds, Series 2021A (Green Bonds - Climate Bonds Certified) and $29 million Taxable Bonds, Series 2021B. The bonds have an expected final maturity in fiscal 2052. Moody's also maintains Aa3 ratings on outstanding debt. The outlook is stable. Oberlin has outstanding debt of about $195 million.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Assignment and maintenance of Oberlin College's Aa3 rating incorporates its very good strategic positioning with a favorable brand, sizeable wealth and liquidity, and solid financial reserve coverage of pro forma debt and expenses. With strong fiscal year-to-date investment returns and continued favorable donor support, the college is poised to surpass $1.2 billion in total cash and investments for fiscal 2021, which will help absorb the additional $80 million of incremental new debt. This financial reserve growth will further strengthen the college's spendable cash and investments to expenses, which was at 3.4x for fiscal 2020. Further, despite challenging revenue conditions, effective financial management will help the college sustain operating cash flow margins in the mid-teens over the longer-term. While changes to a three semester 2020-2021 academic year will add volatility to operating results for fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022 due to the accounting treatment for certain revenues, Moody's expects operating cash flow margins to average in the low- to mid-teens over this period.

Credit challenges include highly competitive student market conditions and thin debt affordability from operations. Weak regional demographics and elevated competition will continue to suppress pricing flexibility. Further, the college has a high age of plant at just over 19 years, which indicates the presence of deferred maintenance and additional capital needs, partly addressed with the Series 2021 bonds. Despite an annual enrollment decline for academic year 2020-2021 of about 6.5%, the college is poised to stabilize enrollment for fall 2021 based on positive trends in application volume and early decisions.

RATING OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that leadership will successfully execute a multifaceted strategy intended to strengthen longer-term net tuition revenue growth and financial performance. It also reflects Moody's expectations of continued strong liquidity, maintenance of strong spendable cash and investments' coverage of debt, and operating cash flow margins averaging mid-double digits between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATING

- Outsized improvement in strategic positioning, reflected by indications of sustained strengthened student demand and pricing power along with significant increases in donor support

- Significant growth in financial reserves and liquidity, further strengthening coverage of debt and expenses

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING

- Inability to sustain operating cash flow margins in the mid-teens beyond fiscal 2021

- Material increase in financial leverage or weakening in debt affordability from operations

- Significant weakening in monthly days cash on hand

LEGAL SECURITY

All bonds are unsecured general obligations of the college.

USE OF PROCEEDS

Proceeds from the proposed Series 2021 bonds will be used to finance about $80 million of costs associated with a conversion from a steam energy system to a low temperature hot water system using an optimized and carbon-free geothermal source. In addition, proceeds will also be used to refund a portion of the outstanding Series 2013 and Series 2017 bonds, and finance the costs of terminating an interest rate swap agreement. The college will structure the refunding to realize the savings during fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2025.

PROFILE

Oberlin College is a nationally selective private liberal arts college, with a renowned conservatory of music enrolling about 2,700 full-time equivalent students. Founded in 1833, it was the first coeducational college in the United States. It is located in Oberlin in northern Ohio approximately 35 miles from Cleveland, Ohio.

METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Higher Education published in May 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1175020. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288435.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Christopher Collins
Lead Analyst
Higher Education
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
7 World Trade Center
250 Greenwich Street
New York 10007
US
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Susan Fitzgerald
Additional Contact
Higher Education
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
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New York, NY 10007
U.S.A
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
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