New York, October 16, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") assigned
a B3 senior unsecured rating to United States Steel Corporation's
(U. S. Steel) Convertible Senior Notes Due November 2026.
Moody's affirmed the B2 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), the
B2-PD Probability of Default Rating, and the B3 senior unsecured
ratings, including the IRB's and the ERB's. The
Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating is unchanged at SGL-2.
The outlook is stable.
Assignments:
..Issuer: United States Steel Corporation
....Senior Unsecured Conv./Exch.
Bond/Debenture, Assigned B3 (LGD4)
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: United States Steel Corporation
....Outlook, Remains Stable
Affirmations:
..Issuer: Allegheny County Industrial Dev.
Auth., PA
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: Bucks County Industrial Development Auth.,
PA
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: Hoover (City of) AL, Industrial Devel.
Board
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: Indiana Finance Authority
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: Ohio Water Development Authority
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: Southwestern Illinois Development Authority
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
..Issuer: United States Steel Corporation
.... Probability of Default Rating,
Affirmed B2-PD
.... Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed
B2
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Affirmed B3 (LGD4)
Unchanged:
..Issuer: United States Steel Corporation
.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating,
Unchanged SGL-2
RATINGS RATIONALE
The B2 CFR reflects the increased leverage that will result from the financing
of strategic investments to improve the productivity and cost position
of U. S. Steel, including the pending acquisition
of a 49.9% equity stake in Big River Steel LLC (B3 CFR --
Big River) for approximately $700 million. In addition to
Big River, these investments are indicated to be around $1.6
billion over the next several years and include $1.2 billion
for the endless casting & rolling facility and cogeneration facility
at the Mon Valley works, $280 million for the construction
of an electric arc furnace (EAF) in the tubular segment and $130
million for a new Dynamo line at U. S. Steel Europe (USSE).
Although the company expects around $390 million in annual EBITDA
improvement once all projects are completed and fully operational,
the largest portion of this improvement is slated to come from the Mon
Valley investment, which investment time frame is between 2019 and
2022. As such, meaningful uplift from this investment is
not expected over the next several years although contribution from the
new Dynamo line and the EAF is expected in 2020 and forward. Additionally,
no returns from the Big River investment are expected over the next several
years as Big River completes its expansion plans to double capacity to
around 3.3 million tons. Consequently leverage is expected
to remain elevated, peaking at around 6x, particularly if
current market price conditions persist.
While U. S. Steel's metrics and leverage position remain
strong for the twelve months through June 30, 2019, with debt/EBITDA
of 2.4x and EBIT/interest of 4x, performance benefits from
the substantive run-up in steel prices in 2018, which contributed
to strong advancement in EBITDA that continues to be reflected in the
LTM numbers. The B2 CFR anticipates weaker performance in the second
half of 2019 and into 2020 given the drop-in steel prices that
has been ongoing over the course of 2019, lag impact of such on
performance, and expectation that there is no catalyst that will
change the current market fundamentals in either the US or Europe.
Steel prices have fallen steadily during 2019, with hot-rolled
coil averaging $692/ton in the quarter through March, $614/ton
for the quarter through June and we estimate that the third quarter will
be around $580/$600 ton and not improve materially over
the next several quarters with risk to the downside. Reflecting
the difficult market environment in the US and Europe, U.
S. Steel has temporarily idled two blast furnaces in the US and
one in Europe.
Additionally, given the level of sales into the spot market,
performance will continue to evidence significant volatility. Key
end markets such as automotive and OCTG are slowing and industrial and
machinery are expected to moderate as well. Consequently,
leverage, as measured by the debt/EBITDA ratio is seen as peaking
at about 5x. The CFR also considers the execution risk in the various
projects underway and the need to complete in a timely fashion within
expected budgets.
Although the debt protection metrics and leverage position are temporarily
stretched, the CFR incorporates the strategic benefits of the investments
in process, the investment in Big River, and the size and
footprint of the company in the US steel industry.
U. S. Steel, like all producers in the global steel
sector faces pressure to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions,
among a number of other sustainability issues and will likely incur costs
to meet increasingly stringent regulations. As such, the
company faces longer term secular challenges in the ongoing shift away
from blast furnace steelmaking to EAFs.
U. S. Steel and companies who produce steel using the blast
furnace process ( integrated producers -use primarily coal and
iron ore to produce steel) have higher greenhouse gas emissions and face
greater challenges than producers who use the EAF process, which
has a greater percentage of scrap (recycled steel) in the raw material
mix. Additionally, with the move to increasingly higher CAFÉ
standards, producers supplying the automotive industry face increasing
competition from other materials such as aluminum. U. S.
Steel continues to focus on its Advanced High- Strength Steel product
development to help mitigate against this market erosion. The increasing
use of debt in the capital structure, while for key strategic initiatives
indicates a higher tolerance for leverage in the capital structure.
The SGL-2 speculative grade liquidity rating reflects the company's
good liquidity but reduced cash position of $651 million at June
30, 2019 and availability under its $1.5 billion asset
based revolving credit facility (ABL). Preliminary indications
are that cash at September 30, 2019 has dropped to between $466
million and $476 million. The company will upsize the ABL
to $2 billion with the closing of the announced Big River investment.
The ABL requires the company to maintain a fixed charge coverage ratio
for the most recent four consecutive quarters should availability be less
than the greater of 10% of the total aggregate commitment and $150
million. Given that the company would not be able to meet the coverage
ratio, availability has been reduced by $150 million.
The facility matures February 26, 2023 but can be accelerated 45
days prior to the maturity of any senior debt outstanding if certain liquidity
conditions are not met. With the company's debt repayments in recent
years, there are no senior note maturities until 2025, subsequent
to the maturity date of the ABL. Given the increased capital spending
anticipated over the next several years, U. S. Steel
is expected to be modestly free cash flow negative, but this can
be accommodated in the liquidity profile.
There is also a Euro 460 million unsecured credit facility at the company's
U. S. Steel Kosice (USSK) subsidiary in Europe, which
matures September 26, 2023. At June 30, 2019 Euro 260
million was available.
The stable outlook assumes that fundamentals in the steel industry will
not materially deteriorate from current conditions and that U.
S. Steel's liquidity will remain strong enough to accommodate negative
cash flow over the investment horizon without further significant increases
in debt. The outlook also considers that leverage will not be sustained
above 5.5x, although leverage is expected to peak around
6x.
Given the significant investment requirements over the next several years
and need to execute on these projects, a ratings upgrade is unlikely.
However, should market conditions improve such that higher prices
are sustainable, and the company can sustain leverage of no more
than 4x through varying price points on the downside and (CFO-dividends)
in excess of 15%, positive ratings momentum could develop.
Should leverage deteriorate to and look to be sustained at over 5.5x
and (CFO-dividends) be less than 10%, ratings could
be downgraded.
Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U. S.
Steel is the second largest flat-rolled producer in the US in terms
of production capacity. The company manufactures and sells a wide
variety of steel sheet, tubular and tin products across a broad
array of industries, including service centers, transportation,
appliance, construction, containers, and oil,
gas and petrochemicals. Through its major production operations
in the US and Central Europe, U. S. Steel has a combined
raw steel capacity of approximately 22 million tons. (US 17 million,
Europe 5 million). Revenues for the twelve months ended June 30,
2019 were $14.5 billion.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Steel Industry published
in September 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Carol Cowan
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Brian Oak
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653