Hong Kong, September 10, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Baa2 rating to the proposed
USD and Euro senior unsecured notes to be issued by CNAC (HK) Finbridge
Company Limited (Finbridge), and guaranteed by China National Chemical
Corporation Limited (ChemChina, Baa2 stable).
Moody's has also assigned a Baa3 rating to the proposed USD subordinated
perpetual securities be issued by Finbridge, and guaranteed by ChemChina
on a subordinated basis.
RATINGS RATIONALE
ChemChina's Baa2 issuer rating reflects its Baseline Credit Assessment
(BCA) of ba3, and a four-notch uplift based on Moody's
assessment of a high likelihood of support from and a high level of dependence
on the Government of China (A1 stable) in times of need.
ChemChina's ba3 BCA reflects the company's large business
scale and global market position in the chemical and agricultural industries;
the diversification in the company's business portfolio and end-user
industries, which reduces its overall performance volatility;
and its good access to the domestic bank and capital markets.
At the same time, ChemChina's BCA is constrained by its high
debt leverage; its relatively weak profitability; and execution
challenges related to the integration of its overseas operations.
While ChemChina's debt leverage, as measured by adjusted debt/EBITDA,
will weaken to the low 12.0x range by the end of 2020 from the
mid-11.0x range in 2019 due to impact from COVID-19,
Moody's expects leverage will trend towards 8.0x-9.0x
over the next 1-2 years.
This improvement will be primarily supported by the expected higher earnings
from ChemChina's key businesses segments, including agrochemical
and new material businesses, as well as the company's deleverage
initiatives such as equity raising from the listing of key subsidiaries
and assets rationalization through disposal of non-core assets.
The proposed issuances will improve ChemChina's liquidity profile
and will not materially affect its credit metrics, because the company
will use the proceeds to refinance existing debt.
The Baa2 rating for the senior unsecured notes reflects that the notes
will rank pari passu with all other senior unsecured obligations of ChemChina.
The Baa3 rating on the proposed subordinated perpetual securities is one
notch lower than ChemChina's senior unsecured rating to reflect
the subordinated status of the securities.
Moody's considers ChemChina's proposed perpetual securities as 100%
debt-like due to the high step-up cost of 300 basis points
after the first call date, creating a strong incentive for the company
to prepay the securities.
In addition, Moody's believes there is a low likelihood of ChemChina
deferring the coupon payments, given the dividend suspension clause
and the company's strong access to funding.
However, the rating on the subordinated perpetual securities could
be further lowered if Moody's assesses that the company is likely to defer
a large number of coupon payments in advance of default.
ChemChina's issuer rating also takes into account the following environmental,
social and governance (ESG) considerations.
ChemChina is exposed to environmental and social risks associated with
environmental compliance and safe production at its large number of domestic
subsidiaries. These risks are partially mitigated by the company's
sizeable investments of over RMB3 billion since 2017 on environmental
protection and production line upgrades, as well as the stricter
internal control and monitoring mechanisms at its production sites.
In terms of governance, as a key state-owned enterprise (SOE)
ChemChina is under the close supervision of the central government.
In addition, the company publishes its financial information periodically
as a frequent issuer in the domestic bond market and has multiple listed
subsidiaries which help increase its financial transparency.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The stable outlook on ChemChina's issuer rating reflects Moody's
expectation that the company will deleverage and improve its credit metrics
over the next two years. The stable outlook also reflects ChemChina's
strong funding access because of its central SOE status.
ChemChina's issuer rating could be upgraded if the company's
BCA improves as demonstrated by a significant lowering in debt leverage,
improved discipline in acquisitions, and significant progress in
the integration of its overseas operations, such that its profitability
improves and adjusted debt/EBITDA falls below 7.0 -7.5x
on a sustained basis.
ChemChina's rating could also be upgraded, without an upgrade
of its BCA, if its strategic importance in executing important national
policy goals in China's chemical and agrochemical industry significantly
increases such that Moody's assessment of the government's
willingness to provide support increases.
On the other hand, ChemChina's issuer rating could be downgraded
if the company's BCA is lowered because of a significant deterioration
in its business or financial profile, without any change in Moody's
support assessment.
Credit metrics indicative of a lower BCA include adjusted debt/EBITDA
remaining above 9.0x without any likelihood of improvement.
ChemChina's rating could also be downgraded, without lowering
its BCA, if the company's importance in the implementation
of significant national policy goals declines such that Moody's
assessment of the government's willingness to provide support weakens.
The methodologies used in these ratings were Chemical Industry published
in March 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1152388,
and Government-Related Issuers Methodology published in February
2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1186207.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of these methodologies.
China National Chemical Corporation Limited (ChemChina) is the largest
chemical company in China in terms of revenue and assets. The company's
business lines include agrochemicals, rubber products, new
chemical materials and specialty chemicals, industrial equipment
and petrochemical processing.
The company was founded after the merger of China National Bluestar (Group)
Co., Ltd. (Baa2 stable) and China Haohua Chemical
Group Co., Ltd in 2004. Since its establishment,
the company has played the national policy role of consolidating the fragmented,
but important, domestic chemical industry; and securing new
chemical technologies and products important to China's chemical
and agrochemical industries through overseas acquisitions.
ChemChina is a private company, 100% owned by the Chinese
government. The company's annual revenue reached RMB454.3
billion in 2019.
The local market analyst for these ratings is Jin Wu, +86 (21)
20574021.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
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Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
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this Credit Rating.
Gerwin Ho
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Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
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