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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns Counterparty Risk Ratings to Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A. and Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A.

26 Jun 2018

Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A.'s Long Term Ratings placed on Review for Downgrade

London, 26 June 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today placed on review for downgrade the baa3 baseline credit assessments (BCAs) of Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A. (CCB) and Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A. (Raiffeisen). As a result, CCB's long-term issuer rating of Baa3, long-term deposit rating of Baa3 and long-term counterparty risk assessment (CRA) of Baa3(cr) were also placed on review for downgrade. The outlook on CCB's long-term issuer and deposit ratings was changed to Rating under Review from Negative. The review for downgrade on Raiffeisen's BCA however has no bearing on the bank's CRA, issuer rating and deposit rating, which were already placed on review for downgrade on 30 May 2018.

The reviews for downgrade on Raiffeisen's and CCB's BCAs reflect the forthcoming consolidation of Italy's networks of mutual banks. During the review period, Moody's will seek more clarity on the future groups' financial profiles, consolidated assets, liability structures, and funding plans. The reviews for downgrade on CCB's CRA, issuer rating and deposit rating follow the review on its BCA.

Moody's today also assigned long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) to Raiffeisen and CCB, respectively A3 and Baa3, and also placed them under review for downgrade to reflect the review for downgrade on the two entities' BCAs. Furthermore, the review for downgrade on Raiffeisen's CRR also reflects the review for downgrade on Italy's sovereign bond rating (currently Baa2) as a bank's CRR does not typically exceed the sovereign rating by more than two notches. These CRRs are assigned following the update to Moody's Banks rating methodology on 6 June 2018.

Moody's CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honour the uncollateralized portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities (CRR liabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honoured. CRR liabilities typically relate to transactions with unrelated parties. Examples of CRR liabilities include the uncollateralized portion of payables arising from derivatives transactions and the uncollateralized portion of liabilities under sale and repurchase agreements. CRRs are not applicable to funding commitments or other obligations associated with covered bonds, letters of credit, guarantees, servicer and trustee obligations, and other similar obligations that arise from a bank performing its essential operating functions.

RATINGS RATIONALE -- BCAs, CRAs, issuer ratings and deposit ratings

Raiffeisen's and CCB's BCAs were placed under review for downgrade to reflect Moody's expectations that following the forthcoming consolidation with their respective networks of Italian mutual banks, the two groups' standalone credit profiles could be weaker and no longer consistent with the baa3 BCAs currently assigned to both entities. Italian mutual banks typically have weak financial profiles, with high problem loans and weak profitability, and the establishment of solidarity mechanisms between the member banks of each new mutualist network would affect the creditworthiness of Raiffeisen and CCB. CCB's CRA, issuer rating and deposit ratings were also placed under review for downgrade as they could be downgraded following a downgrade of its BCA and/or the downgrade of the sovereign.

RATINGS RATIONALE - CRRs

In assigning CRRs, Moody's starts with the banks' adjusted BCAs and uses the agency's existing advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis that takes into account the level of subordination to CRR liabilities in the bank's balance sheet, and assumes a nominal volume of such liabilities.

The CRRs on Raiffeisen and CCB do not include any further uplift resulting from Moody's expectations for government support, as Moody's believes the probability of such support to be low.

- For Raiffeisen, the CRR is three notches above the adjusted BCA, which is the maximum under Moody's advanced LGF analysis, and one notch above the CRA. The CRR is under review for downgrade to reflect both the review for downgrade on its BCA and the review for downgrade Italy's Baa2 sovereign bond rating. In accordance with Moody's Banks methodology, CRRs are typically constrained to two notches above the sovereign bond rating, reflecting the agency's view that the expected loss of rated bank instruments is unlikely to be significantly lower that of the sovereign's own debt, but the CRA is constrained to one notch above the sovereign bond rating.

- For CCB, the CRR is aligned with the adjusted BCA and the CRA because of the limited bail-in-able debt and deposits likely to support CRR liabilities. The CRR is under review for downgrade to reflect the review for downgrade on its BCA.

The CRRs assigned are equal to or higher than the senior debt and deposit ratings, where applicable. This reflects Moody's view that secured counterparties to banks typically benefit from greater protections under insolvency laws and bank resolution regimes than do senior unsecured creditors, and that this benefit is likely to extend to the unsecured portion of such secured transactions in most bank resolution regimes. Moody's believes that in many cases regulators will use their discretion to allow a bank in resolution to continue to honour its CRR liabilities or to transfer those liabilities to another party who will honour them, in part because of the greater complexity of bailing in obligations that fluctuate with market prices, and also because the regulator will typically seek to preserve much of the bank's operations as a going concern in order to maximize the value of the bank in resolution, stabilize the bank quickly, and avoid contagion within the banking system. CRR liabilities at these banks therefore benefit from the subordination provided by more junior liabilities, with the extent of the uplift of the CRR from the adjusted BCA depending on the amount of subordination.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE

An upgrade of Raiffeisen's and CCB's BCAs and ratings is unlikely given the current reviews for downgrade.

The CRRs of both entities could be downgraded following a downgrade of the BCAs or following a material reduction in their stock of bail-in-able debt and junior deposits. The CRR of Raiffeisen would also be downgraded following a downgrade of Italy's sovereign bond rating.

The BCAs of Raiffeisen and CCB could be downgraded if Moody's assessment of the mutual groups formed around each central institution displays weaker characteristics than they currently have as standalone entities; for example higher problem loans, weaker capital or lower profitability.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A.

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Currently baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Currently baa3

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A.

.... LT Issuer Ratings, Currently Baa3, Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

.... ST Issuer Ratings, Currently P-3

.... LT Deposit Ratings, Currently Baa3, Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

.... ST Deposit Ratings, Currently P-3

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Currently baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Currently baa3

.... LT Counterparty Risk Assessment, Currently Baa3(cr)

.... ST Counterparty Risk Assessment, Currently P-3(cr)

Assignments (and placed On Review for Downgrade):

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A.

.... LT Counterparty Risk Rating (Local and Foreign Currency), Assigned A3

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A.

.... LT Counterparty Risk Rating (Local and Foreign Currency), Assigned Baa3

.... ST Counterparty Risk Rating (Local and Foreign Currency), Assigned P-3

Assigments:

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A.

.... ST Counterparty Risk Rating (Local and Foreign Currency), Assigned P-2

Outlook Actions:

Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen S.p.A.

....Outlook, Remains Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Cassa Centrale Banca S.p.A.

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in June 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Fabio Ianno
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Nicholas Hill
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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