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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns (P)Baa3 rating to Indonesia's sukuk offering

08 Mar 2016

Singapore, March 08, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a provisional rating of (P)Baa3 to the proposed US dollar trust certificates to be issued by the Government of Indonesia (Baa3, Stable) through Perusahaan Penerbit SBSN Indonesia III ("PPSI III") under its existing trust certificate issuance program.

The payment obligations associated with these certificates are direct obligations of the Government of Indonesia.

In Moody's opinion, the payment obligations represented by the securities to be issued by PPSI III are ranked pari passu with other senior, unsecured debt issuances of the Government of Indonesia. As such, Moody's (P)Baa3 rating to the proposed sukuk issuance is in line with the Government of Indonesia's Baa3 issuer rating given that any direct government obligation whose repayment is handled by the Government of Indonesia receives a rating equivalent to that of the government.

Moody's expects to remove the provisional status of the rating upon the closing of the proposed issuance and a review of its final terms. Moody's also notes that its sukuk rating does not express an opinion on the structure's compliance with Shari'ah law.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Indonesia's Baa3 government bond rating balances low debt, narrow fiscal deficits, and healthy growth as compared to peers against weak revenue mobilization and a reliance on external funding.

The country's very large scale and ample natural resource endowment support the rating, although GDP per capita is still low amongst investment grade countries. Economic growth has slowed in recent years, prompted by the terms of trade shock from lower commodity prices and held back by policy tightening as authorities sought to address rising external imbalances. Moody's now expects growth to stabilize over the next two years as policy has turned more accommodative with the central bank lowering policy rates and the government's spending plans, especially with regards to infrastructure, start to gain traction.

Nevertheless, lower commodity prices have pressured revenue, leading to widening fiscal deficits and rising debt. At the same time, the government has demonstrated its commitment to fiscal discipline, keeping the fiscal shortfall under the statutory limit of 3% of GDP, while debt levels remain lower than all but two of the G-20 group of systemically important countries.

Other credit challenges include a relatively shallow and volatile domestic capital market, which contributes to Indonesia's reliance on external funding. Consequently, non-resident investors hold a fairly large proportion of government securities, which in turn render financing conditions susceptible to external financial shocks. Moreover, as significant portion of government debt stock is denominated in foreign currency, exchange rate volatility could impair fiscal strength. In addition, the Indonesian non-financial corporate sector has increased its foreign currency indebtedness since 2010 and the country's cross-border debt servicing requirements have risen accordingly.

The stable outlook reflects our view that Indonesia's sovereign credit profile will remain resilient to the current pressures from lower commodity prices and international financial volatility. Upside risks to growth and investment could result from the recent acceleration in reform momentum and infrastructure spending, although these are balanced against Indonesia's mixed track record of implementation.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2015. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

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Christian de Guzman
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Anne Van Praagh
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Moody's assigns (P)Baa3 rating to Indonesia's sukuk offering
No Related Data.
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