New York, November 19, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") assigned
a B2 rating to Carnival Corporation's (together with Carnival plc
"Carnival") proposed senior unsecured note issuances.
Carnival's other ratings are unchanged including its corporate family
rating of B1, probability of default rating of B1-PD,
senior secured rating of Ba2, senior secured second lien rating
of B1, and existing senior unsecured rating of B2. The company's
speculative grade liquidity rating of SGL-2 also remains unchanged.
The outlook remains negative.
Proceeds of the planned $1.0 billion and EUR 350 million
issuances will be used for general corporate purposes, including
possibly repaying higher coupon debt and making certain vessel payments.
"This debt issuance, along with the $1.5 billion
common stock offering issued last week, further bolsters the company's
liquidity position during this period of suspended operations and material
monthly cash burn" stated Pete Trombetta, Moody's lodging
and cruise analyst.
Assignments:
..Issuer: Carnival Corporation
....Gtd Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Assigned B2 (LGD5)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Carnival's credit profile is supported by its good liquidity given its
significant cash balances and Moody's view that over the long run,
the value proposition of a cruise vacation relative to land-based
destinations, as well as a group of loyal cruise customers,
supports a base level of demand once health safety concerns have been
effectively addressed. The company also benefits from its position
as the largest worldwide cruise line in terms of revenues, fleet
size and number of passengers carried, with significant geographic
and brand diversification. In the short run, Carnival's credit
profile will be dominated by the length of time that cruise operations
continue to be highly disrupted and the resulting impact on the company's
cash consumption, liquidity and credit metrics. The normal
ongoing credit risks include Carnival's near term very high leverage,
the highly seasonal and capital-intensive nature of cruise companies,
competition with all other vacation options, and the cruise industry's
exposure to economic and industry cycles as well as weather related incidents
and geopolitical events. The company reported negative EBITDA in
the third quarter 2020 and Moody's expects Carnival's leverage and coverage
metrics to continue to weaken into 2021 at which point they will begin
a slow recovery.
The negative outlook reflects Carnival's very high leverage and the uncertainty
around the pace and level of recovery in demand that will enable the company
to reduce leverage to below 5.5x.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be downgraded further in the near term if the company's
liquidity weakened in any way or if the recovery in cruising activity
is delayed beyond our base assumptions which include a resumption of US
cruising in the first half of 2021 with capacity days reaching at least
65% of their 2019 levels and occupancy reaching at least 70%
by the second quarter with continued improvement from there. The
ratings could also be downgraded if there are indications that the company
is not on a path to restoring leverage to a sustainable level.
The outlook could be revised to stable if the impacts from the spread
of the coronavirus stabilizes and cruise operations resume at a level
that enables the company to maintain debt/EBITDA below 5.5x.
Ratings could be upgraded if the company is able to maintain leverage
below 4.5x with EBITA/interest expense of at least 3.0x.
Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc own the world's largest passenger
cruise fleet operating under multiple brands including Carnival Cruise
Line, Holland America, Princess Cruises, AIDA Cruises,
Costa Cruises, and P&O Cruises, among others. Carnival
Corporation and Carnival plc operate as a dual listed company.
Headquartered in Miami, Florida, US and Southampton,
United Kingdom. Revenue for the latest twelve-month period
ending August 31, 2020 were approximately $10.3 billion.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and Consumer
Service Industry published in October 2016 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1037985.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
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same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
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provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
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and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed
by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt
am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
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Peter Trombetta
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
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Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Margaret Taylor
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
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