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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns a provisional rating to notes to be issued by LLC Mortgage Agent Absolut 3, Russian RMBS

 The document has been translated in other languages

04 Dec 2014

Approximately RUB 5,922.36 million of Debt Securities affected

Frankfurt am Main, December 04, 2014 -- Moody's has assigned a provisional rating to Notes to be issued by LLC "Mortgage Agent Absolut 3":

....RUB 5,922.36 million Class A Residential Mortgage Backed Fixed Rate Bonds due September 2042, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)

RUB 1,045.123 million Class B Notes were not rated by Moody's.

This transaction will be the third securitisation of mortgages originated by Absolut Bank (B1/NP). The portfolio consists of the Russian residential mortgage loans serviced by Absolut Bank. DeltaCredit Bank (Baa3/P-3) acts as back-up servicer in the transaction. The deal is static, no substitution of loans will take place during the life of the deal.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating takes into account, among other factors, the performance of the first two transactions launched by Absolut Bank in 2013, the credit quality of the underlying mortgage loan pool, from which Moody's determined the MILAN Credit Enhancement and the portfolio expected loss, as well as legal considerations and the initial credit enhancement of 20.1% provided to the Class A Notes by the junior notes (15%) and the reserve fund (5.1%). The expected portfolio loss of [7.5]% and the MILAN required credit enhancement of [25]% serve as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model and tranching model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution as described in the report "The Lognormal Method Applied to ABS Analysis", published in July 2000.

The most significant driver for the MILAN Credit Enhancement number, which is similar to other MILAN CE numbers in the Russian RMBS transactions was the limited amount of historical information available from the originator, the fact that for about [65.1]% of the borrowers income was verified using forms provided by the bank rather than official tax forms and the fact that more than 50% of the pool comprises the loans, which are so-called "high quality application" (when underwriting these loans the Bank does not call the borrower's employer in order to verify borrower's income and employment). The main driver for the expected loss, which is also in line with expected losses assumed for other Russian RMBS transactions, was the limited historical data available on the originator's portfolio and the fact that the performance of the first two securitisations of Absolut is in line with Moody's expectations. The weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of [54.5]% is in line with the LTV observed in other Russian RMBS transactions.

The transaction benefits from an amortising reserve fund sized at 5.1% of the notes, which will be fully funded at closing. The reserve fund will be replenished before the interest payment on the unrated Class B notes. Subject to conditions such as no draw on the reserve fund, no unpaid principal deficiency, and no servicer default, the reserve fund may amortise 5.1% of the outstanding notes down to a floor of RUB 55.0 mio.

The provisional rating address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the Notes. Moody's issues a provisional rating in advance of the final sale of securities, but the rating represents only Moody's preliminary credit opinions. Upon a conclusive review of the transaction and associated documentation, Moody's will endeavour to assign a definitive rating to the Notes. A definitive rating may differ from a provisional rating. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

Moody's Parameter Sensitivities: Even if MILAN Credit Enhancement was increased from 25% to 35% and the portfolio expected loss was increased from 7.5% to 9.4%, the model output indicates that the Class A notes would have achieved Baa3.

Moody's Parameter Sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. The analysis assumes that the deal has not aged and is not intended to measure how the rating of the security might migrate over time, but rather how the initial rating of the security might have differed if key rating input parameters were varied. Parameter Sensitivities for the typical EMEA RMBS transaction are calculated by stressing key variable inputs in Moody's primary rating model.

The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Other Factors used in this rating are described in Key Legal and Structural Rating Issues in Russian Securitisation Transactions published in June 2007.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:

Factors that would lead to an upgrade:

1. A significant improvement in the legal environment

Factors that would lead to a downgrade:

1. The ratings downgrade of the Russian Federation

2. The ratings downgrade of Absolut Bank

3. The growth of the pool delinquencies and loss rates above expectations

4. Unforeseen regulatory changes

Loss and Cash Flow Analysis:

In rating this transaction, Moody's used a cash flow model to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche.

Stress Scenarios:

As described in the previous paragraph, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction.

Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF382792.

Moody's describes its loss and cash flow analysis in the section "Ratings Rationale" of this press release.

Moody's describes the stress scenarios it has considered for this rating action in the section "Ratings Rationale" of this press release.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Stanislav Nastassine
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Michelangelo Margaria
VP - Sr Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's assigns a provisional rating to notes to be issued by LLC Mortgage Agent Absolut 3, Russian RMBS
No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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