CZK 21.1 billion of notes affected.
Frankfurt am Main, June 11, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a definitive A3 long-term
rating to the mortgage covered bonds (hypotecni zastavni listy (HZLs)
covered bonds) issued by UniCredit Bank Czech Republic a.s.,
which are governed by the Czech covered bond framework.
RATINGS RATIONALE
A covered bond benefits from (1) the issuer's promise to pay interest
and principal on the bonds; and (2) the economic benefit of a collateral
pool (cover pool), if the issuer defaults.
The ratings therefore reflect the following factors:
(1) The credit strength of UniCredit Bank Czech Republic (not publicly
Moody's-rated).
(2) The cover pool's value, if the issuer defaults.
The stressed level of losses modelled in the event of issuer default (cover
pool losses) for this transaction is 53.6%.
Moody's considered the following factors in its analysis of the
cover pool's value:
a) The credit quality of the assets backing the covered bonds.
The mortgage covered bonds are backed by Czech commercial and residential
mortgage loans. The collateral score for the cover pool is 32.6%.
b) The legal framework. Notable aspects of the legislation include
(1) the par value test, which ensures that covered bonds are always
backed by at least the equivalent amount of assets; and (2) the establishment
of a mortgage estate (cover pool) in the event the issuer becomes insolvent.
This pool will legally separate all registered eligible assets from the
general insolvency estate and therefore provide the covered bond holders
with a priority claim in respect of these assets.
c) The exposure to market risk, which is 31.8% for
this cover pool.
d) The over-collateralisation (OC) in the cover pool is 177%,
of which UniCredit Bank Czech Republic provides 0% on a committed
basis (see Key Rating Assumptions/Factors, below).
The TPI assigned to this transaction is Very Improbable. Moody's
TPI framework does not constrain the rating.
As per 31 December 2012, the total value of the assets included
in the cover pool, comprising 13,565 residential mortgage
loans and 858 commercial mortgage loans, is approximately CZK58.6
billion. The residential mortgage loans have a weighted-average
seasoning of 40 months and a weighted-average loan-to-value
(LTV) ratio of 65.0%. The commercial mortgage loans
have a weighted-average seasoning of 39 months and a weighted-average
LTV ratio of 63.2%.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Moody's determines covered bond ratings using a two-step
process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's uses its Covered Bond Model (COBOL)
to determine a rating based on a bond's expected loss. COBOL
determines expected loss as (1) a function of the issuer's probability
of default (measured by the issuer's rating); and (2) the stressed
losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default.
The cover pool losses for this programme are 53.6%.
This is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models if UniCredit
Bank Czech Republic defaults. Moody's splits cover pool losses
between market risk of 31.8% and collateral risk of 21.8%.
Market risk measures losses stemming from refinancing risk and risks related
to interest-rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also
include certain legal risks). Collateral risk measures losses resulting
directly from cover pool assets' credit quality. Moody's
derives collateral risk from the collateral score, which for this
programme is currently 32.6%.
Cover pool OC is 177%, of which UniCredit Bank Czech Republic
provides 0% on a committed basis. The minimum OC level consistent
with the A3 rating target is 1%, of which the issuer should
provide 0% in a committed form (numbers in nominal value terms).
These numbers show Moody's reliance on uncommitted OC in its expected
loss analysis.
All numbers in this section are based on Moody's most recent modelling
(based on data, as per 31 December 2012).
For further details on cover pool losses, collateral risk,
market risk, collateral score and TPI Leeway across Moody's-rated
covered bond programmes please refer to "Moody's EMEA Covered Bonds Monitoring
Overview", published quarterly.
TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a timely payment indicator (TPI),
which indicates the likelihood that the issuer will make timely payments
to covered bondholders if the issuer defaults. The TPI framework
limits the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the
issuer's rating.
For UniCredit Bank Czech Republic mortgage covered bonds, Moody's
has assigned a TPI of Very Improbable.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The issuer's credit strength is the main determinant of a covered
bond rating's robustness. The TPI Leeway measures the number
of notches by which Moody's might downgrade the issuer's rating
before the rating agency downgrades the covered bonds because of TPI framework
constraints.
Based on the current TPI of "Very Improbable", the TPI
Leeway for this programme is one notch. This implies that Moody's
might downgrade the covered bonds because of a TPI cap, if it downgrades
the issuer rating below Baa3, all other variables being equal.
A multiple-notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in
certain limited circumstances, such as (1) a sovereign downgrade
negatively affecting both the issuer's senior unsecured rating and the
TPI; (2) a multiple-notch downgrade of the issuer; or
(3) a material reduction of the value of the cover pool.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Covered Bonds" published in July 2012.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Martin Lenhard
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Juan Pablo Soriano
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's assigns definitive A3 to mortgage covered bonds of UniCredit Bank Czech Republic