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Rating Action:

Moody's assigns definitive ratings to seven classes of notes issued by Geldilux-TS-2011 S.A.

20 Dec 2011

EUR 423.8 million of debt securities affected.

Frankfurt am Main, December 20, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned definitive ratings to the following class of notes issued by GELDILUX-TS-2011 S.A.:

Issuer: GELDILUX-TS-2011 S.A.

....EUR150M A1 Certificate, Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR200M A2 Certificate, Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR42.5M B Certificate, Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR17.1M C Certificate, Assigned A2 (sf)

....EUR3.5M D Certificate, Assigned Baa3 (sf)

....EUR4.3M E Certificate, Assigned Ba3 (sf)

....EUR6.4M Secured Floating Rate Liquidity Notes Certificate, Assigned Aa2 (sf)

Moody's Investors Servce has not assigned ratings to the EUR 7.7M Class F Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2016.

Geldilux-TS-2011 S.A. is a cash securitisation of short-term euro loan receivables granted to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) and/or individuals domiciled in Germany and extended by UniCredit Luxembourg S.A. in cooperation with UniCredit Bank AG.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings of the notes take account of UniCredit Luxembourg S.A. (currently rated Baa1/P-2/both on watch for possible downgrade) and UniCredit Bank AG (currently rated A2/P-1/both on watch for possible downgrade), as the major transaction parties in this transaction, being experienced originators and servicers respectively. In the past, they have used ABS term financing via the previously issued ten GELDILUX transactions in respect of which the securitised portfolios have shown excellent performance to date (i.e. in total over all transactions only 12 obligors have defaulted since 1996). Moody's valued positively the limitation of the potential deterioration of credit quality during the 2.5-years revolving period via eligibility criteria and portfolio limits as the portfolio turns around very quickly (with a max. weighted average life of 90 days). Similarly, in its analysis Moody's relied strongly on the early amortisation triggers, especially the one stopping the replenishment period in case UniCredit Bank AG loses a minimum long term rating of A3. In such situation the portfolio becomes static and - due to the 90 days weighted average life constraint - amortises quickly. In addition, upon UniCredit Bank AG losing a Baa2 rating obligors will be notified and are also asked to pay directly to the issuer's account. The liquidity cushion in the transaction is provided by (i) the interest rate swap counterparty (paying 0.50% of extra spread to the structure) and (ii) the EUR 6.4 million issuer interest reserve, which is funded by the liquidity note and available to fund shortfalls in respect of senior fees, interest on the class A to E notes as well as interest on the liquidity notes.

Moody's main modeling assumption for this transaction is the bespoke default distribution derived via the Monte Carlo simulation in CDOROM (v2.8). Moody's derived this default distribution from (i) the most concentrated pool composition (with the minimum limit of 500 obligors) that would be possible in terms of industry and single obligor concentration during the lifetime of the transaction (based on the portfolio limits defined in the transaction documents), (ii) a global correlation of 5% and (iii) the average expected portfolio quality. We expect the average default probability of the pool to be a Baa3 Moody's equivalent (translating into 0.1% cumulative default rate over a weighted average life of 90 days) taking into account: (i) the product characteristics and the historical performance data and (ii) potential fluctuations of the macroeconomic environment during the lifetime of this transaction (including the 2.5 years revolving period). The average fixed recovery rate assumption was set at 25% in line with previous transactions because the non-accessory collateral is not assigned to the SPV since it is granted by the borrower on a relationship level rather than for the euro loan specifically. Therefore, in case of UniCredit Bank AG's insolvency the issuer depends on recoveries assigned by the insolvency administrator, leaving the issuer in the position of a senior unsecured creditor. Finally, no prepayments were assumed because of the short-term nature of the underlying loan receivables there are no prepayments for these loan receivables.

Moody's also tested other set of assumptions under its Parameter Sensitivities analysis. The results show that the model output for the Class A1 and A2 notes would not change, while the model output for Class B notes would be 4 notches lower if the mean default rate assumption was to increase to 0.4% (reflecting a two-notch-worse pool quality), all other parameters kept unchanged. Similarly, the model output would be unchanged for the Class A1 and A2 notes, while the Class B model output would be 1 notch lower if the mean recovery rate assumption was to decrease to 15%. For more details, please refer to the full Parameter Sensitivity analysis included in the New Issue Report of this transaction.

The main source of uncertainty in the analysis relates to (i) the high level of dependency on the originator to roll-over the expriring euro loan into a new euro loan and / or other means of bank financing (such as a working capital line) and (ii) uncertainty regarding the European macroeconomic conditions and resulting negative effects on borrowers' credit quality. These aspects are reflected in the Medium V-Score for the transaction which is in line with the German SME ABS sector overall. Nonetheless, for three sub-categories Moody's considers this transaction better than the market. First, the originator provided a comprehensive set of different historical data covering more than 10 years of data. Second, Moody's believes that the historical data performance variability is significantly lower than for other German SME loan receivable portfolios, which is caused by (i) the short-term nature of the loan contracts and (ii) the specific origination and collection process applied to this product type. Third, UniCredit Bank AG retains the Class B to Class F notes, which ensures a stronger alignment of interests than observed in the German ABS SME market.

As noted in Moody's comment 'Rising Severity of Euro Area Sovereign Crisis Threatens Credit Standing of All EU Sovereigns' (28 November 2011), the risk of sovereign defaults or the exit of countries from the Euro area is rising. As a result, Moody's could lower the maximum achievable rating for structured finance transactions in some countries, which could result in rating downgrades.

The methodologies used in rating were Moody's Approach to Rating CDOs of SMEs in Europe, published in February 2007, Refining the ABS SME Approach: Moody's Probability of Default assumptions in the rating analysis of granular Small and Mid-sized Enterprise portfolios in EMEA published in March 2009, and Moody's Approach to Rating Granular SME Transactions in Europe, Middle East and Africa published in June 2007. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Other Factors used in this rating are described in "V Score and Parameter Sensitivities in the EMEA Small-to-Medium Enterprise ABS Sector" published in June 2009.

For rating this transaction Moody's used the following model. (i) ABSROM (v.2.2.16) to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche and (ii) CDOROM™ (v.2.8) to determine the transaction specific default distribution.

More specifically, Moody's ABSROM cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of such default scenarios as defined by the transaction-specific default distribution (as simulated in CDOROM™). On the recovery side Moody's assumes a fixed rate recovery. In the cash flow model Moody's modeled the initial as well as each replenished portfolio separately with equally distributed amortisation and timing of default vectors over 90 days. Similarly, the above described transaction specific default distribution is applied to each portfolio when determining the cash flows for each portfolio period. The non defaulted amount is used to purchase the new portfolio with the same characteristics in terms of amortisation and yield during the replenishment period and as long as no early amortisation event occurs. Thereafter the principal collections are used to pay down the notes. The ultimate losses in the portfolio are allocated to the Class A1 / A2 to Class F notes in full reverse sequential order. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche. As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.

Moody's used CDOROM to simulate the default distribution for this transaction. The Moody's CDOROM™ model is a Monte Carlo simulation which takes borrower specific Moody's default probabilities as input. Each borrower reference entity is modelled individually with a standard multi-factor model incorporating intra- and inter-industry correlation. The correlation structure is based on a Gaussian copula. In each Monte Carlo scenario, defaults are simulated.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction.

Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF262612.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Silvia Baumann
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Thorsten Klotz
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's assigns definitive ratings to seven classes of notes issued by Geldilux-TS-2011 S.A.
No Related Data.
© 2020 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND/OR ITS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S (COLLECTIVELY, "PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE SUCH  CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE MOODY'S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS ("ASSESSMENTS"), AND  OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND  PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND  PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES  ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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