New York, June 13, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a provisional senior unsecured
(P)B1 rating to the proposed Government of Nigeria's Diaspora Bond.
RATINGS RATIONALE
According to the transaction documents available to Moody's,
the Notes under the proposed Diaspora Bond are direct, general,
unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Federal
Government of the Republic of Nigeria (the issuer) and will rank pari
passu with all other unsecured external debt obligations of the issuer.
The proposed Notes are governed by New York Law and terms of the notes
contain a negative pledge provision. The (P)B1 rating on Nigeria's
proposed $300 million Diaspora Bond mirrors the Federal Government
of Nigeria's B1 (stable outlook) issuer rating, which reflects
its current weak economic growth dampened by the low oil price environment.
Nigeria's economic growth and US dollar earnings are likely to gradually
improve in 2017, supported by a recovery in oil production and oil
prices. The current rebound in oil production trending towards
two million barrels per day (mbpd) since the last quarter of 2016,
if sustained, is providing relief to both economic growth and support
the US dollar supply in the economy. The economy is also likely
to see further benefits arising from a more timely implementation of the
2017 budget and in particular a higher realisation of capital spending
on infrastructure. Although militant activity in the Niger Delta
is set to wane following ongoing negotiation and the resumption of payments
from the government, it will remain a latent threat to the expected
recovery of the economy. The existing scarcity of dollars --
worsened by the soft capital controls imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria
-- is likely to be persistent and therefore negatively affect important
sectors of the economy such as services and manufacturing. We do
not expect the current policy mix to significantly change over the short
term but a gradual easing of restrictions is possible as foreign currency
receipts improve with rising oil production.
Nigeria's issuer rating is constrained by the weakness of Nigeria's
institutional framework, especially in terms of the rule of law,
government effectiveness and control of corruption, which has had
a substantial impact economic growth and government fiscal strength.
Additionally, Nigeria is exposed to political risks arising from
both the conflict with Boko Haram and recurrent attacks on oil infrastructures
in the Niger.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
Positive pressure on Nigeria's issuer rating will be exerted upon:
1) successful implementation of structural reforms by the Buhari administration,
in particular with respect to public resource management and the broadening
of the revenue base; 2) strong improvement in institutional strength
with respect to corruption, government effectiveness, and
the rule of law; 3) the rebuilding of large financial buffers sufficient
to shelter the economy against a prolonged period of oil price and production
volatility.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN
Nigeria's B1 issuer rating could be downgraded in case of failure to implement
revenue reform that might lead to a further accumulation of debt;
2) a greater-than-anticipated deterioration in the government's
balance sheet; 3) material delay in implementing key structural reforms,
especially in the oil sector, to maintain the level of oil production
over the medium-term; 4) inability to stabilize oil production
due to increased militancy in the Niger Delta.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 6,121 (2015
Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): -1.5% (2016
Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 19%
(2016 Estimate)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -3.8%
(2016 Estimate) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: 0.7% (2016 Estimate)
(also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 5.3% (2016 Estimate)
Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been
recorded since 1983.
On 12 June 2016, a rating committee was called to discuss assigning
a provisional rating to the proposed Diaspora Bond of the government of
the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The main points raised during
the discussion were: The terms and conditions of the notes to be
issued under the Diaspora Bond and the conclusion that these notes would
rank pari passu with other senior unsecured debt obligations of the Federal
government of Nigeria.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings
published in December 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies
page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used
in this credit rating action, if applicable.
The Local Market analyst for this rating is Aurelien Mali, +971
(423) 795-37.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to
each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their
credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating.
For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and
in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to
the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction
structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive
rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further
information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the
respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Lucie Villa
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Yves Lemay
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653