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Rating Action:

Moody's changes AVIC International's ratings outlook to negative

 The document has been translated in other languages

27 Oct 2014

Hong Kong, October 27, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed AVIC International Holding Corporation's Baa3 ratings outlook to negative from stable.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the company's Baa3 issuer and senior unsecured ratings issued by AVIC International Finance & Investment .

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The change in outlook to negative mainly reflects AVIC International's debt levels, which rose rapidly in 1H 2014, due to aggressive land acquisitions," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst, and also the International Lead Analyst for AVIC International.

Moody's had expected that AVIC International would manage its debt levels, such that its adjusted debt/EBITDA would improve to around 8.5x-9.0x by end-2014 from 9.9x at end-2013. Instead, the company's adjusted debt rose RMB18.7 billion or 18% in 1H 2014, resulting in an adjusted debt/EBITDA of 10.2x, despite its adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months ended 30 June 2014 rising by some 15% over 2013.

AVIC International's contracted sales in its property segment for the first nine months of 2014 were lackluster, against the backdrop of a challenging environment for Chinese property developers. Its aggressive land acquisitions and weak property sales have led to a large increase in inventory, thereby putting pressure on its cashflows.

While the government has recently relaxed its policies on property purchases and bank loans, Moody's believes it will be challenging for AVIC International to meet its full year contracted sales target.

Moody's notes that AVIC International has secured additional long term capital, such as the RMB1.73 billion in proceeds from an equity placement by its subsidiary, Tianma Micro-electronics Co., Ltd (unrated), and RMB3 billion from the issuance of perpetual notes.

"While the additional long term capital sources could partially alleviate the near term funding pressures on AVIC International, and improve its debt maturity profile, we expect its adjusted debt/EBITDA will remain at 10x-11x at end-2014. Such a result is at the lower-end of its Baa3 ratings category," says Kai Hu, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer, and also the Local Market Analyst for AVIC International.

Moody's points out that it is unclear as to whether AVIC International can improve its financial profile in 2015. Any such improvement will depend on the strength of its commitment to a more prudent growth approach, and the performance of its key profit contributors, particular its Real Estate & Hotel Management business.

AVIC International's Baa3 ratings include a four-notch uplift, based on Moody's expectation that the company will receive a high level of support from its parent, Aviation Industrial Corporation of China (unrated), in a stress situation.

AVIC International's standalone credit strength is supported by a highly diversified business portfolio.

The company's ratings also consider structural subordination risks because debt incurred at the subsidiary level accounted for around 34% of the company's consolidated assets at end-June 2014.

AVIC International's liquidity profile is moderate. While its internally generated cashflows and cash on hand are insufficient to fund its projected capital spending and repay short term debt maturities, Moody's expects that the company can roll-over its short term borrowings and maintain access to funding markets, given that its parent is wholly owned by China's central government.

Upward ratings pressure is limited over at least the next 1-2 years, given the negative ratings outlook.

Nevertheless, the outlook could return to stable if the company lowers its debt levels over the next 12-18 months; in particular, if its: (1) adjusted debt/EBITDA falls to 8.5x-9.0x; and (2) adjusted debt/capitalization improves to 70%-73% on a consistent basis.

On the other hand, AVIC International's ratings will be downgraded if: (1) it fails to implement a deleverage plan through new equity investments or better working capital management; (2) its continues to adopt an aggressive debt-funded growth approach; (3) its underlying business performance deteriorates materially; and (4) there is evidence of weakening support from its parent, or its parent's credit profile weakens significantly, or if the parent ceases to have a controlling stake in AVIC International.

The credit metrics that Moody's will consider for a downgrade include: adjusted debt/EBITDA, and/or adjust debt/capitalization in excess of 8.5x-9.0x and 70%-73%, respectively over the next 12 months.

AVIC International's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors that Moody's considers relevant to the credit profile of the issuer, such as the company's (i) business risk and competitive position compared with others within the industry; (ii) capital structure and financial risk; (iii) projected performance over the near to intermediate term; and (iv) management's track record and tolerance for risk. Moody's compared these attributes against other issuers both within and outside AVIC International's core industry and believes AVIC International's ratings are comparable to those of other issuers with similar credit risk.

Other Factors used in these ratings are described in Analytical Considerations in Assessing Conglomerates, published in September 2007.

AVIC International Holding Corporation is 62.52% owned by its parent, Aviation Industrial Corporation of China (AVIC).

The subsidiary is its parent's largest by revenue and profit contribution. It is also AVIC's key platform for the parent company's international aviation businesses.

AVIC International also aggregates most of AVIC Group's non-aviation related businesses, including property, commodity trading, construction, retail, consumer products, high-tech electronics, and resources development. Its revenues in 2013 totaled RMB144 billion.

AVIC is wholly owned by China's central government. It aggregates China's aviation industry and is the sole producer of military aircraft and other aviation products for China's army. It also manufactures civil airplanes and owns a diversified portfolio of non-aviation-related businesses. AVIC's 2013 revenues totaled RMB347 billion.

The Local Market Analyst for this rating is Kai Hu, +86 21 61010553

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Joe Morrison
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Moody's changes AVIC International's ratings outlook to negative
No Related Data.
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