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Related Issuers
Rating Action:

Moody's changes Mitsui Fudosan's outlook to positive; affirms A3

 The document has been translated in other languages

20 Aug 2014

Tokyo, August 20, 2014 -- Moody's Japan K.K. has changed to positive from stable the rating outlook of Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed all its ratings on Mitsui Fudosan, including A3 senior unsecured long-term ratings and issuer rating.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Mitsui Fudosan's leverage will stabilize at its current level or lower due to the equity finance through public offerings in July 2014, and growing cash flows from its newly opened properties, condominium sales, and the property management and brokerage business.

Moody's expects annual operating profit to grow to JPY175-185 billion for the next 1-2 years from JPY172.6 billion in FYE2014/3, while debt will stabilize at around JPY2.0-2.1 trillion from JPY2.0 trillion.

On the other hand, Moody's needs to continue assessing whether the company will maintain its financial leverage at the current level, owing to our assumption that there will be further debt-funded investments in new large projects over the next few years.

Expected Improvement in Leverage

Mitsui Fudosan's Debt/EBITDA multiple (unadjusted) improved below 9x in FYE2014/3 from around 10x in FYE2013/3, because of the improvement in its leverage as a result of its growth in cash flow.

In addition, due to the equity finance through public offerings amounting to JPY330 billion in July 2014, Moody's expects that the company will stabilize its debt to around JPY2.0-2.1 trillion from JPY2.0 trillion in FYE2014/3, and debt/gross asset (unadjusted) to around 40% or lower for the next 1-2 years.

Growth in Cash Flow

Given growth in its cash flows from its newly-opened properties, condominium sales, and property management and intermediacy business, Mitsui Fudosan's operating profit increased 16% in FYE2014/3. In particular, its management segment, which does not need large capital expenditures, contributed -- based on operating income before eliminations -- 35% of Mitsui Fudosan's total profit growth in FYE2014/3, and significantly reduced debt/EBITDA.

Leasing Business

Mitsui Fudosan's cash flow in its leasing business will increase gradually for the next three years, owing to additional cash flows from newly opened properties, including offices in the Nihonbashi area and retail facilities where it maintains a strong franchise.

In addition, the operating income from existing buildings which has bottomed will support the company's total cash flow growth. Given strong demand for high quality buildings in good locations, Mitsui Fudosan's average vacancy rate has fallen faster than the market average. Thus, its rents will also rise relatively faster.

Property Sales Business

Moody's expects the cash flow from Mitsui Fudosan's property sales business will grow significantly for the next 1-2 years, mainly driven by the growth in commercial property sales. In its condo-sales business, despite cost increases for land and construction, profitability will slightly improve, as sales prices will rise, while selling costs will fall.

Moody's will consider upgrading the rating if Mitsui Fudosan: (1) exhibits stronger profitability in its major segments; and (2) increases its cash collections and reduces its level of debt further.

Specific credit metrics that Moody's will take into account include: (1) adjusted debt/EBITDA below 10.0x; and (2) adjusted debt/gross assets below 40%.

On the other hand, the company's ratings could come under pressure if: (1) earnings from office leasing and property sales are significantly affected by a further deterioration in market conditions; or (2) debt substantially increases, owing to changes in its investment and financial policies, thereby worsening its leverage, balance sheet, and interest coverage.

Specific credit metrics that may lead to a downgrade of the company's ratings include: (1) adjusted debt/EBITDA above 11.0x; (2) adjusted total debt to gross assets above 50%; and (3) adjusted EBITDA to interest expenses below 3x.

The ratings could also be adversely affected if the company's risks increase owing to higher exposures to either property sales or overseas businesses.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Rating Methodology for REITs and Other Commercial Property Firms published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo, is a leading property developer in Japan.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

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Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's Japan K.K. is a credit rating agency registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and its registration number is FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2. The Financial Services Agency has not imposed any supervisory measures on Moody's Japan K.K. in the past year.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Takahiro Okubo
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Japan K.K.
Atago Green Hills Mori Tower 20fl
2-5-1 Atago, Minato-ku
Tokyo 105-6220
Japan
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Kei Kitayama
MD - Asia-Pac Structured Fin
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Releasing Office:
Moody's Japan K.K.
Atago Green Hills Mori Tower 20fl
2-5-1 Atago, Minato-ku
Tokyo 105-6220
Japan
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Moody's changes Mitsui Fudosan's outlook to positive; affirms A3
No Related Data.
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